Stillwater Economics

Stillwater Benchmark for Refinery Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs

December 5, 2018 , ,

December 5, 2018 1.4 cpg   This benchmark represents the cost in cents per gallon of CARBOB gasoline and CARB diesel incurred by the refining sector under of the stationary source provision of California’s Cap and Trade program (Stationary Source Cap and Trade or SSC&T). Stillwater’s Benchmark for Refinery SSC&T Cost is calculated using the following formula: Actual Refining Sector...
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The Problem of Invalidated RINs in the Renewable Fuel Standard

November 14, 2018 ,

November 14, 2018 by Mike Newman of Parhelion Underwriting Under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed a “buyer beware” approach to the purchase and sale of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). This creates a liability for any buyer of RINs, making them responsible for purchases of invalid RINS, even if done inadvertently.[1] The liability includes the...
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Has California Gasoline Demand Peaked?

October 17, 2018 ,

by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage as the result of the Corporate Average Fuel...
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War Story: “Go figure it out”

October 15, 2018 , , , ,

by Brian Conroy When Stillwater Associate Brian Conroy worked for BP in 2006 as Global Sales and Market Development Manager of Specialty Chemicals, he was offered an opportunity to try something new. With a background in chemicals, beginning in research and progressing to various roles in business, he was ready for the change. BP’s CEO had mandated the launch of...
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California Stationary Source Cap and Trade Benchmark

August 8, 2018 , ,

August 8, 2018 BACKGROUND California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) put in place a series of policies and programs across all major sectors with the goal of returning California emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is tasked with developing regulations and market mechanisms to meet this goal. To help achieve the...
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Projecting the Costs of California’s Cap & Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Programs

July 25, 2018 , ,

July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make informed decisions. To that end, Stillwater’s carbon policy team recently conducted an analysis of the potential impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Carbon Cap & Trade (C&T) programs...
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Expected Pricing and Economic Impacts of the IMO 2020 Rule

July 10, 2018 , ,

July 11, 2018 by Ralph Grimmer The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will make a significant change to the maximum allowed sulfur content of marine fuel consumed on open oceans beginning January 1, 2020. This global change (via IMO revision of its MARPOL VI rule) was triggered by an IMO decision in 2008. Over the past year, Stillwater Associates has offered...
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LCFS Successes and Challenges

June 20, 2018 , ,

On June 19, 2018, Stillwater’s President, Dave Hackett, participated as a panel member in an informational hearing on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) held by the California State Assembly’s Select Committee on California’s Energy Future. The panel included an overview of the LCFS offered by the Legislative Analyst’s Office followed by comments from regulated parties and interested stakeholders. Dave...
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IMO 2020 & Crude Slate Pricing: Choose Your Own Adventure

June 5, 2018 , ,

June 5, 2018 by Kendra Seymour Contributors: James Ahrens, John Faulstich, Ralph Grimmer, Jim Mladenik, and Arshad Sheikh Let’s go back in time, to the late 1970s when sulfur regulations for fuel oil were less stringent and heavy San Joaquin Valley (SJV) crude was priced extremely low. This SJV was often minimally processed then dumped into the bunker fuel market...
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The Trans Mountain Tangle

May 2, 2018 , , ,

May 2, 2018 by Stillwater Staff There’s a battle brewing between two provinces in Canada over a pipeline, and it may cause transportation fuels prices to spike at least in the short-term. Here we offer the backstory to get you up-to-date. In 2013, Kinder Morgan filed an application with the Canadian National Energy Board to essentially twin the existing 1,150...
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California Carbon Info: Analysis of CCO usage for 2016 compliance obligation

February 10, 2018 , , ,

As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. As such, we periodically feature guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service covering the Western Climate Initiative...
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The Cost of Premium

February 9, 2018 ,

February 9, 2018 By David Hackett Stillwater Associates is often retained to analyze markets. Currently, we have a project for the Fuels Institute to look at the demand for higher octane gasoline in the future.  This analysis is driven by the growing demand for higher octane gasolines that cars increasingly need to maximize the performance of their turbocharged engines. In...
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California Carbon Info: California Emissions Decline Faster than Cap in 2016

November 6, 2017 , , , ,

As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. We will be featuring guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service covering the Western Climate Initiative...
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California Carbon Info: Analyzing California’s offset demand

September 13, 2017 , , , ,

As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. Starting this month, we will be featuring guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service covering the...
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What the Frack is Happening in Colorado? A Look Inside Colorado’s Hydraulic Fracking Phenomenon

July 12, 2017 ,

July 12, 2017 By Jessica Loomis The word “fracking” is as tied to the state of Colorado these days as “skiing”, “mountains” and “snow”. Fracking is the process of drilling vertically or horizontally far below the surface to inject water, sand. and chemicals at a very high pressure into rocks that are believed to have crude oil and natural gas...
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Bubble Map Update: Drop in Oil Prices Takes the Steam out of the Mid Continent

December 10, 2015 ,

December 10, 2015   The December Bubble Map shows crude oil prices dropping overall while differentials to WTI have remained relatively stable. Prices on December 9th show WTI dropping from $46 to $37 since our last blog in October. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly at $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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