Stillwater Economics

FLASH REPORT: EPA Issues Proposed RFS Standards for 2023-2025 plus Requirements for eRINs

December 1, 2022 , ,

December 1, 2022 by Adam Schubert EPA today announced their proposed RFS standards (“Set Rule”) for 2023, 2024, and 2025. This proposed rule also contains substantial new provisions enabling the generation of eRINs. This proposal is the first rule concerning RFS years past 2022, the last year for which the statute contained specific annual volume requirements. As a result, EPA...
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Gasoline Price Spikes: What happened when winter came early?

November 28, 2022 ,

November 28, 2022 by Dave Hackett Gasoline prices soared in California in September until the Governor declared that winter had arrived a month early on Friday afternoon, September 30th.  We wrote about the cause of the rise in prices, and have been watching the situation ever since. So, what happened next? First, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) gave approval...
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Refinery Maintenance Deferral: The Perfect Storm

November 8, 2022 ,

November 8, 2022 By Christine Martin In the wake of skyrocketing gasoline prices in California, refinery maintenance has been quite the hot topic. To dive right in, there are 4 types of refinery maintenance as defined by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA):   Planned refinery turnarounds – major maintenance or overhaul activities which occur on a set schedule  Planned shutdowns...
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So Long BTC, Hello CFPC

November 7, 2022 , ,

November 7, 2022 By Adam Schubert Background  The recently enacted federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)(1) includes the sunsetting of the Biomass-Based Diesel Blenders Tax Credit (BTC) at the end of 2024 and replaces it with the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit (CFPC) defined in Section 13704 of the IRA. We have previously described how this new credit will work...
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What is Stillwater’s Brain Trust Thinking About, and How Can it Benefit You? 

October 4, 2022 ,

October 4, 2022 By Kendra Seymour Stillwater’s greatest strength stems from our uniquely qualified team of experts. Call them OGs, The Big Brains, Senior Associates, Gurus; whatever you call them, they leverage decades of experience at major transportation fuel corporations to help clients navigate challenges with the highest level of industry knowledge, market analysis, policy insight, and emerging technology strategies. ...
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As gas prices soar, Gov. Newsom could save California drivers $1 billion

September 29, 2022 , , ,

September 29, 2022 Update: On September 30, 2022, at the direction of Gov. Newsom, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a regulatory advisory allowing the sale or supply of gasoline in California that exceeds the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits in CARB’s gasoline regulations, from September 30 through October 2022. When gas prices spike in California, Stillwater’s phones start...
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Inflation Reduction Act Sustainable Aviation Fuel Credit

September 7, 2022 , ,

September 7, 2022 by Megan Boutwell Among the many incentives for renewable fuel production in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a new set of tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The IRA defines a two-phased approach to help meet the Biden administration’s goal of producing 3 billion gallons of SAF in the U.S. by 2030. The first two-year...
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How does the cost of Hydrogen stack up against gasoline?  

September 7, 2022 ,

September 6, 2022 By Gary Yowell  Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) are zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) which comply with California’s ZEV mandate and internal combustion engine ban. One challenge facing FCVs is the high fuel cost – due to hydrogen’s unique physical properties. High gasoline prices beyond $4.00 per gallon have recently made it into headlines nationwide; meanwhile, since 2014,...
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What will it cost to move transportation energy to the grid?

August 3, 2022 , ,

by David Hackett California has big plans to reduce the use of petroleum and replace that energy with electricity. The first goal is to achieve 60% renewable energy by 2030. The next goal is to achieve 100% renewable and zero-carbon electricity while gaining carbon neutrality by 2045.  In between, in 2035 the state intends to ban the sale of new...
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What’s Up Docket? A Preview of Potential LCFS Amendments 

July 22, 2022 , ,

By Adam Schubert  CARB has been indicating for some time that the next round of revisions to the LCFS would come after the AB32 Scoping Plan was completed. With that in mind, CARB surprised many observers by holding an “informal workshop” on potential changes to the LCFS on July 7th. This session had about 700 attendees. The CARB staff presentation,...
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How to Think About Climate Change in 1500 Words

June 15, 2022 , ,

June 10, 2021 by Mike Newman, Director of Parhelion Underwriting   The effects of climate change are unpredictable, leaving businesses to scramble to adapt to new risks in a shifting new normal. How should companies think about climate change? The key characteristic of Climate Change is its unpredictability and the feeling that the natural rhythm of things has been changed. What...
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Possible Market Implications of California’s Efforts to Ban Internal Combustion Engines

May 31, 2022 , ,

May 31, 2022 In accordance with California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Zero-Emission By 2035 Executive Order, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is developing a ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. The goals of this ban are to promote clean air in the state and to mitigate climate change. Stillwater’s recent analysis, Possible Market...
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Why is the Price of Diesel Higher than Gasoline?

May 25, 2022 ,

May 25, 2022 By Leigh Noda *updated June 16, 2022 with current pricing data. Stillwater Associates has been queried why the retail price of diesel fuel is higher than gasoline—even higher than the retail price of premium gasoline. “According to AAA, as of June 16, 2022 California average diesel price breached $7 per gallon at $7.002 per gallon while the average regular gasoline price...
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Electric Vehicles: How California is helping to reduce petroleum demand in the face of the Ukraine conflict

May 11, 2022 , ,

May 11, 2022 By Gary Yowell The Biden Administration[1] has been promoting EVs as a key federal strategy to address the current petroleum dilemma brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using California, the most proactive EV state in the country as a guide, we can examine the effectiveness of EVs in reducing petroleum use. Analysis California’s growing gasoline and...
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E15: Silver Bullet for Gasoline Prices?

May 10, 2022 , ,

May 10, 2022 By Adam Schubert Background On April 12th, President Biden announced that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would issue an emergency waiver of federal gasoline Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) regulations this summer for E15—a 15% blend of ethanol with gasoline. This action was finalized on April 29th. As ethanol is typically less costly than hydrocarbon gasoline, this...
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Economics 101 – Supply and Demand (AKA: Don’t Blame “Big Oil”)

April 5, 2022 ,

April 5, 2022 By Jim Mladenik Three major issues have dominated media coverage lately associated with an “existential threat” to humanity: the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, and the war in Ukraine. Medical science seems to have kept up with the rapidly evolving Covid virus and offers visible hopes for defeating or at least containing it. Some activists see climate change...
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The Convoluted Logic of the U.S. Postal Service

March 26, 2022 , ,

March 19, 2022 By Barry Schaps  Recently, the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) announced its decision to phase out the current fleet of 30-year-old Grumman postal trucks, replacing as many as 165,000 vehicles with Oshkosh Defense trucks – a contract valued at $11.3 billion over 10 years. While no one would argue the current fleet of dilapidated delivery trucks need replacing,...
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California Gas Prices Blow Through Five Dollars

March 9, 2022 , ,

March 9, 2022 By Leigh Noda While the national average for regular gasoline today, March 9th, is $4.25 per gallon, California’s average price is much higher at $5.57 per gallon according to AAA. Just last week, California’s average unleaded regular gasoline price exceed $5 per gallon for the first time ever. While a good portion of the increase in gasoline...
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What happens with a ban on Russian oil imports? 

March 8, 2022 , ,

March 8, 2022 By Dave Hackett  Oil is in the news in a big way with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Until this week, most people didn’t know that the U.S. is an importer of Russian oil. This article will look at U.S. imports in 2021 and put the volumes into context relative to the larger market.   Crude Oil Imports ...
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It gets worse: Pipeline outage in SoCal could cause supply disruptions and push fuel prices even higher!

March 3, 2022 ,

March 3, 2022 By Leigh Noda and Kendra Seymour ——- UPDATE March 4, 2022 @ 8:00 AM: Situation averted. Per OPIS, Kinder Morgan restarted segments of its SFPP pipeline Thursday evening following unplanned maintenance work at the company’s Watson station that had shut down the pipeline on Wednesday. ——- Gas prices are already sky-high in California thanks to the state’s...
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Options for Reducing Transport Carbon Emissions

March 2, 2022 , , ,

On February 28, Stillwater Senior Analyst, Jim Mladenik presented at the Bioeconomy Hawaii Forum 2022. Jim’s presentation, Options for Reducing Transport Fuel Carbon Intensity, illustrates the fuel greenhouse gas lifecycle versus that of tailpipe emissions. View a PDF version of this presentation here.

What does the recent growth in the LCFS credit bank mean for credit prices in the longer term?

February 7, 2022 , , ,

February 1, 2022 Volatility in the LCFS credit market and recently released 3Q2021 data showing nearly 433,000 metric tons in net credits for the quarter have left many investors scratching their heads. What does this mean for the trajectory of the program? How should we think about credit prices going forward? Stillwater Associates’ LCFS Team answers these questions and many...
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The Social Cost of Carbon Part 3: What Does it Cost to Reduce Carbon in California’s Jet Pool?

January 8, 2022 , ,

January 8, 2022 By Jim Mladenik  Stillwater’s first article on the social cost of carbon (SCC) defined the term and covered how the U.S. estimates the cost of climate change. The U.S. federal government has used numbers varying from $41 per metric ton (MT) under the Obama administration to near $1 per MT under President Trump, and, as of February...
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LCFS Amendment Tales: Chapter 2

January 6, 2022 , ,

January 6, 2022 By Leigh Noda  On December 7th, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) held their second workshop for the current round of potential regulatory amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The first workshop, Chapter 1, was held more than a year earlier over two days – October 14-15, 2020. CARB staff use these workshops with several...
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Are EVs More Fuel Efficient Than Gasoline and Diesel Cars?

January 5, 2022 , ,

January 5, 2022 By Gary Yowell  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), California Air Resources Board (CARB), and EV promoters often claim EVs have three times higher fuel economy than their gasoline counterparts. This is like saying eggs come from grocery stores, which is true, but ignores the fact that eggs originate from laying hens before being shipped to and sold...
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CCS Incentives for Additional Fizz 

November 8, 2021 , ,

November 3, 2021 By Adam Schubert   Recent months have seen several announcements of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects in various stages of development. While commercial CCS operations have limited history, deployment of this technology is seen as a feasible way to eliminate significant volumes of CO2 emissions. In this article, we will take a brief look at existing U.S. incentives for CCS applications in the transportation fuel arena.  Is...
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The California Oil Spill – What’s Next?

October 20, 2021 , ,

October 20, 2021 By Nick Griffith We here in Southern California are experiencing our first significant offshore oil spill in some time. It now appears that crude oil, estimated to be about 600 barrels (or about 25,000 gallons), escaped from a fracture in the San Pedro Bay Pipeline which connects Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Platform Elly to Long Beach. Investigations and surveys continue during the cleanup efforts, after which we should know the range of the spill which may include the OCS.   The Bureau...
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The Social Cost of Carbon Part 2: Values Used Around the World & What it Costs to Reduce Carbon in California’s Diesel Pool

October 19, 2021 , ,

October 19, 2021 By Jim Mladenik  Stillwater’s first article on the social cost of carbon (SCC) defined the term and covered how the U.S. estimates the cost of climate change. In that article we also pointed out the fact that the U.S. federal government has used numbers varying from $41 per metric ton (MT) under the Obama administration to near $1...
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What does the recent decline in LCFS credit prices mean for the longer term?

October 19, 2021 , , ,

October 19, 2021 Recent volatility in the LCFS credit market has left many investors scratching their heads. What does this mean for the future of the program? How should we think about credit prices going forward? Stillwater Associates’ LCFS Team answers these questions and many more in our LCFS Credit Balance and Credit Price Outlook. Stillwater’s LCFS Outlook includes historical...
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The Cost of the RFS on Refiners and Crack Spread Growth

October 1, 2021 , ,

September 30, 2021 By Leigh Noda What is RVO and how is it applied?  The Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) on suppliers (refiners and importers) is the U.S. federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mechanism that creates the obligation to acquire and retire renewable identification numbers (RINs). For each calendar year, an RVO percentage (RVO%) is developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through a rulemaking process. The RVO% is intended such that if the...
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Biden Administration Actions to Advance the Future of Sustainable Fuels in American Aviation

September 15, 2021 , , ,

September 10, 2021 By Leigh Noda The aviation sector produces up to 11% of U.S. transportation GHG emissions, and on September 9th, the White House announced a series of executive actions to tackle those emissions by advancing the production and use of cleaner and more sustainable fuels across American aviation, improving aircraft fuel efficiency, and reducing emissions from airports. These...
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How might a Minnesota LCFS play out?

September 14, 2021 , , ,

September 14, 2021 by Adam Schubert In the U.S., several programs aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of energy of fuels used in transportation. California and Oregon both have low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs, one Canadian Province (British Columbia) also has a transport fuels GHG-reduction program, and Canada is in the process of rolling out its...
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The Oil Industry’s Bright Green Energy Future

September 2, 2021 , , ,

September 2, 2021 by Mike Newman, Director of Parhelion Underwriting The Oil industry is under pressure on many fronts in the climate change era, not least of which is from their shareholders. First, the background, from the investors’ perspective. Over the past 15 years, the annual total returns to shareholders for the average oil and gas company has lagged the S&P...
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Where Will All of the Renewable Diesel Go?

August 11, 2021 , ,

August 1, 2021 By Jim Mladenik, Olivier Macé, and Kendra Seymour The many announcements in the past months of projects to modify refinery and existing facilities to produce renewable diesel (RD) has caused many observers to ask two questions:  Where will all the feedstocks come from?  Where will all the RD go?  The first of these questions is addressed in a series of monthly highlights in Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter. In this article, we will address the question of...
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A Glimpse of the Near Future: Petroleum Product Landscape (2021-2023)

August 11, 2021 , , ,

On August 10th, Stillwater Vice President of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented at the CTPMA 2021 Business Forum at the Broadmoor in Colorado. Megan’s presentation touches on the outlook for petroleum product demand, how the federal renewable fuel standard will continue to impact the transport fuels market, and what’s coming with state-level low carbon fuel standard programs. View a PDF version...
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How might a New Mexico LCFS play out?

August 10, 2021 , , ,

August 10, 2021 by Adam Schubert In the U.S., several programs aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of energy of fuels used in transportation. California and Oregon both have low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs, one Canadian Province (British Columbia) also has a transport fuels GHG-reduction program, and Canada is in the process of rolling out its...
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California’s LCFS is successfully proliferating. Is it also successfully decarbonizing transport?

July 13, 2021 , , ,

July 13, 2021 By Kendra Seymour As explained in our LCFS 101 Beginner’s Guide and LCFS 101 Update articles, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) by reducing the average carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels that are used in California. Overall program compliance is generally achieved through the substitution of alternative, low-CI...
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Stillwater’s Projected Costs of the Approved HB 1091 Clean Fuels Standard

June 15, 2021 , ,

June 15, 2021 The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) has been signed into law, but the details of program implementation have not yet been developed by the state’s Department of Ecology (DOE). As such, its costs can currently only be estimated by comparing the Washington CFS legislation to the three existing LCFS-type programs in California, Oregon, and British Columbia (BC)....
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Comparing LCFS Credit Trades and Pricing Between LCFS Programs

June 14, 2021 , ,

June 14, 2021 By Jim Mladenik  Stillwater’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) team has closely monitored the trends in the LCFS market in California from its inception a decade ago. As other LCFS-style programs are proposed and implemented in additional jurisdictions, we track trends in these nascent markets as well. After browsing recent data released by British Columbia (BC) concerning that province’s LCFS program,...
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What does California’s “full reopening” mean for fuels markets? 

June 15, 2021 ,

June 15, 2021 By Dave Hackett  It’s been a weird, rough year for everyone, hasn’t it? As the world begins to return to the “new normal,” lots of folks are wondering what, exactly, that will look like. In our area of expertise, we’ve received a number of questions from clients and reporters pondering the potential economic impact of California’s “full reopening” today, June 15th. What might that mean for California drivers and for gas...
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Taxes and fees drive California’s high diesel prices

May 10, 2021 , ,

May 10, 2021 by Leigh Noda Back in February, we published an article about the factors contributing to the price of gasoline in California. We concluded that, contrary to what some may claim, GHG-reduction programs and taxes on petroleum fuels have a cost, and these costs are passed through to consumers. That first article focused on gasoline, but diesel customers...
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Net Zero – A view from Across the Pond

May 10, 2021 , , ,

May 10, 2021 By Olivier (Olly) Macé Over the coming months, Stillwater plans to publish a series of articles highlighting potential paths to Net Zero here in the U.S. and globally. We kick off this series with an article from one of our newest Senior Associates who lives in England. Greetings from old Europe, where the interest in the energy...
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Flash Report: 4Q2020 LCFS Data Show 374,000 MT Build in the Credit Bank

April 30, 2021 , ,

April 30, 2021 This afternoon, CARB posted the fourth quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 4Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation for the nine months following COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the fourth quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter...
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Flash Report: Washington Legislature Passes Clean Fuel Standard

April 26, 2021 , ,

  April 26, 2021  Over the weekend, the Washington State Legislature passed HB 1091, the state’s Clean Fuel Standard. The bill is now on Governor Jay Inslee’s desk awaiting signature. Assuming Governor Inslee signs the legislation, which is all but certain, Washington will join California, Oregon, and British Columbia as states/provinces on the West Coast to enact LCFS style programs that mandate the reduction of carbon emissions in the transport fuel...
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Modern Alchemy – Waste into Sustainable Aviation Fuel

April 26, 2021 , , ,

April 26, 2021 by Mike Newman, Director of Parhelion Underwriting As the aviation industry seeks to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, decoupling airline growth from carbon growth, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as the leading approach to further reduce GHG emissions from jet aircraft. The world’s aviation sector currently accounts for approximately 2-3% of manmade global carbon emissions....
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Retail gasoline and diesel prices are sky-high. Why?

April 1, 2021 , ,

April 1, 2021 By Steve Holton In the first quarter of 2021, prices at the pump have been rising steadily, leading many people to complain once again about the price of gasoline. Have you ever wondered how the price of gasoline or diesel is derived? A multitude of factors impact the price we pay at the pump including, of course,...
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The Social Cost of Carbon Part I: How Does the U.S. Estimate the Cost of Climate Change?

March 29, 2021 , ,

March 29, 2021 By Marcy Casement The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) represents an estimate (in dollars) of the damage to society and the environment over time from each additional metric ton (MT) of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. This figure takes into account damage from the effects of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather, and water...
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Is COVID-19 a Force Majeure Event?

March 25, 2021 , ,

March 25, 2021 By Barry Schaps The entire transportation fuels supply chain, from crude oil wellhead to the retail service station dispenser, is full of commercial contracts requiring parties to perform specified acts in specified ways within specified timeframes. The impacts of COVID-19 have disrupted normal business activities and upended commercial transactions which may result in years of litigation. You...
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How might the proposed Washington LCFS impact in-state renewable diesel production and use?

March 17, 2021 , , ,

March 17, 2021 by Jim Mladenik The Washington state legislature is currently considering legislation (HB 1091) that would require fuel producers and importers to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to each unit of transportation fuel, a measure known as “carbon intensity.” Carbon intensity includes not only the emissions associated with burning fuels but also the emissions created in extracting...
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How does Hydrogen compare to Biomass-Based Diesel on GHG, PM, and petroleum reduction?

March 3, 2021 , , ,

March 4, 2021 By Gary Yowell Over the last few years, the California state legislature has considered numerous bills which seek to incentivize the replacement of diesel fuel with hydrogen in the transportation sector. Such a transition would require significant investments in hydrogen retail infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and the legislature aims to soften that blow with...
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As the RINs Spin

March 2, 2021 , ,

March 1, 2021 By Adam Schubert With the completion of the current season of refiner quarterly earnings reports, federal Renewable Fuel Standard credits – known as renewable identification numbers, or RINs – prices are once more in the headlines. As RIN prices have increased since the beginning of 2020, it is worth taking another look at this key element of...
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Potential Impacts of LCFS-Style Programs on Fuels Markets

February 15, 2021 , ,

February 15, 2021 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs are structured to reduce the carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels over time by setting progressively stricter CI reduction standards each year. All fuels with CI values higher than the standard, such as petroleum gasoline and diesel, generate deficits. Fuels produced or imported with CIs lower than the standard, such as...
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Sacramento policymakers drive California’s high gasoline prices

February 1, 2021 , ,

February 1, 2021 By Leigh Noda California has a history of having the highest gasoline prices in the country. Why? For one, the West Coast fuels market is isolated from other supply/demand centers. As such, the West Coast is susceptible to unexpected outages of West Coast refineries as it is unable to backfill an unexpected loss in supply by quickly...
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Flash Report: 3Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Build in the Credit Bank

January 29, 2021 , ,

January 29, 2021 On Friday afternoon, January 29th, CARB posted the third quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 3Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation for the six months following COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the third-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 3:  The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

January 15, 2021 , ,

January 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman with Leigh Noda and Barry Schaps In our first article in this three-part series, we identified the unique impacts of the pandemic on oil products’ demand and pointed out that by the time the pandemic has resolved, there will likely be increased environmental legislation risk negatively affecting the sector. As such, acquiring downstream oil...
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Update: How many credits would go out-of-state if Washington implemented an LCFS?

December 18, 2020 , ,

December 18, 2020 by Jim Mladenik A previous Stillwater analysis determined that roughly 75% of credits in Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs are derived from fuels produced outside of those states. The same analysis suggested that a similar trend is likely for Washington state should it adopt an LCFS-style program. In the...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 2: A Fistful of Dollars

December 15, 2020 , , ,

December 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman with Leigh Noda and Barry Schaps On November 15th, we published the first article of a three-part series on downstream oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. That first article covered macro and regional factors that may help answer the question at hand. This is the second article in our Downstream Oil & Gas M&A...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 1: Pssst… Want to Buy a Refinery?

November 18, 2020 , ,

November 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman & Jim Mladenik The petroleum industry is known for its cyclic nature, and, traditionally, value-buyers find opportunity to acquire assets during periods of stress. The current reduction in oil products’ demand brought on by the pandemic, along with other factors, have severely distressed downstream oil and gas assets. Several refineries have already shut down...
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Amid year of global uncertainty, Stillwater launches West Coast Watch and proprietary Refining Margin Index

November 18, 2020 , , , , ,

On November 17th, Stillwater Associates launched the West Coast Watch. This market information portal provides refined petroleum product and renewable fuels supply and demand data, industry news, and analysis to help industry leaders understand the market, spot opportunities, and act confidently.   The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, full of complexities and obstacles...
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Introducing the West Coast Watch Market Analysis

November 18, 2020 , , , ,

November 18, 2020 The West Coast transportation fuels market is rapidly changing with significant impacts just this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the push to de-carbonize the transport sector. Based on these factors and with an eye toward helping stakeholders navigate this challenging market, Stillwater is introducing our West Coast Watch market information portal. Fuel producers, marketers, retailers,...
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California’s Clean Truck Regulation: How will the ACT Impact Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Demand and Emissions?

November 18, 2020 , , , ,

November 18, 2020 Through our new West Coast Watch platform, Stillwater is pleased to offer this forward-looking view on the possible changes to medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fuel demand and emissions under California’s Advanced Clean Truck Regulation. This Stillwater Special Report provides an overview of California’s Advanced Clean Truck Rule (ACT) and its impacts on medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV)...
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Flash Report: 2Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Draw on the Credit Bank

November 2, 2020 ,

November 2, 2020 On Friday afternoon, October 30th, CARB posted the second quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 2Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation for the three months following stay-at-home orders due to COVID-19. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the second quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published...
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West Coast Watch: Ugly Refiner Margins Linger as Pandemic Drags On

October 22, 2020 ,

October 22, 2020 By Kendra Seymour and Leigh Noda The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. West Coast refiners are isolated geographically, must produce gasoline and diesel to unique specifications, and are subject to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction...
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West Coast LCFS Credits Generated by Fuels Produced Out-of-State

October 20, 2020 , ,

October 20, 2020 by Jim Mladenik  Summary California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP) are designed to provide significant financial incentives for the production and blending of low-carbon fuels into the states’ transportation fuels systems. These incentives can be large enough to spur development of numerous projects to reduce the carbon intensity (CI) of ethanol,...
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West Coast Watch: The Pandemic and Wildfires Pummel Refining Margins

September 22, 2020 ,

September 22, 2020 By Megan Boutwell The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. West Coast refiners are isolated geographically, must produce gasoline and diesel to unique specifications, and are subject to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction regulations including the...
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Introducing the West Coast Watch Refining Margin Index

August 27, 2020

August 27, 2020 By Megan Boutwell The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. Geographic isolation, unique gasoline and diesel specifications, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction regulations including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard...
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Buying in the Dip

August 26, 2020 ,

August 26, 2020 By Kendra Seymour By now, it’s no secret that the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing quarantine culture has had serious effects on transportation fuels markets as people are traveling by car and by plane much less frequently. These effects are likely to linger for some time, but eventually life will return to a new...
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The Search for Zero

July 6, 2020 , ,

July 6, 2020 By Adam Schubert A number of Stillwater’s clients come to us with questions concerning ethanol-free gasoline (E0).  These questions include items such as: Who uses E0 and why? How much E0 is being sold and where? What are the economics behind the product? In this article, we provide brief answers to those questions and more. Before diving...
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Post-Coronavirus: What’s Next in the Environmental Commodities Markets

April 30, 2020 , ,

On April 30th, 2020, Stillwater President Dave Hackett participated in a webinar hosted by Parhelion Underwriting on the topic of how the fallout from COVID-19 will affect environmental commodities. Dave spoke about the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit markets. To view a PDF version of Dave’s slide deck, click here.

What’s going on with crude? An internal Stillwater conversation in real-time as oil prices plummeted

April 21, 2020 ,

April 21, 2020 By Kendra Seymour As editor of Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter and a contributor on many of Stillwater’s LCFS-related client projects, I spend most of my time working in renewables markets. Yesterday, as crude markets began showing particularly rare volatility, however, I caught up with my colleague Barry Schaps via Slack to get a better understanding of what was...
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COVID-19 and the LCFS: Groundhog Day

April 15, 2020 , ,

April 15, 2020 By Leigh Noda For the past month, the Stillwater LCFS team has been publishing regular reports on how COVID-19 is affecting the LCFS program and the fuels markets governed by the program. This is the latest of that series. You can read our previous updates here. Want to receive updates like this and other in-depth analysis of the...
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