Stillwater Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

As gas prices soar, Gov. Newsom could save California drivers $1 billion

September 29, 2022 , , ,

September 29, 2022 Update: On September 30, 2022, at the direction of Gov. Newsom, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a regulatory advisory allowing the sale or supply of gasoline in California that exceeds the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits in CARB’s gasoline regulations, from September 30 through October 2022. When gas prices spike in California, Stillwater’s phones start...
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2022 Hot Topics – The Transportation Energy Transition is Expanding

January 12, 2022 , ,

January 12, 2022 By Megan Boutwell Stillwater’s focus for 2022 is the transportation energy transition. Regulations in the U.S., Canada, and the European Union (EU) along with corporate commitments to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are driving investments in low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels. Here are some of the transportation energy transition hot topics we’ll be following for clients this...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 2: A Fistful of Dollars

December 15, 2020 , , ,

December 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman with Leigh Noda and Barry Schaps On November 15th, we published the first article of a three-part series on downstream oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. That first article covered macro and regional factors that may help answer the question at hand. This is the second article in our Downstream Oil & Gas M&A...
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Amid year of global uncertainty, Stillwater launches West Coast Watch and proprietary Refining Margin Index

November 18, 2020 , , , , ,

On November 17th, Stillwater Associates launched the West Coast Watch. This market information portal provides refined petroleum product and renewable fuels supply and demand data, industry news, and analysis to help industry leaders understand the market, spot opportunities, and act confidently.   The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, full of complexities and obstacles...
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95 RON Gasoline and the Political CAFE Ping-Pong Game

January 15, 2020 , , , ,

January 15, 2020 By Ron Pike In an effort to further reduce hydrocarbon consumption in the U.S., 95 RON (Research Octane Number) gasoline has been suggested as a way to help achieve proposed higher corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements. A higher RON allows an internal combustion engine to run at a higher compression ratio, achieve more power, and, therefore,...
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An Updated Guide to EPA’s Tier 3 Gasoline Sulfur Standards

January 5, 2020 , , , , ,

January 5, 2020 by Mike Leister and E.J. Ledet Effective January 1, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring all U.S. gasoline to meet an annual 10 parts per million (ppm) average sulfur requirement as part of its new Tier 3 vehicle and fuel regulations. (Stillwater wrote a quick guide to Tier 3 back then, and it’s still...
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The Ultimate E-Ticket: California Gasoline Prices*

October 22, 2019 , ,

October 22, 2019 By Dave Hackett On Monday, October 21, my friends at the California Energy Commission (CEC) released “Additional Analysis on Gasoline Prices in California.” This report is a follow-on to a May 2019 report that had been requested by Governor Gavin Newsom. Both reports examine why California gasoline prices are higher than the rest of the country. These...
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Why Aren’t Refiners Recovering Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs?

September 20, 2019 , ,

September 20, 2019 by Jeff Kennedy “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” I’m sitting here on a Friday afternoon, contemplating just how true that old adage is. More than 25 years ago, before Stillwater was launched and before the ExxonMobil merger, I was with Mobil West Coast Supply in Long Beach working with many of the...
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California Gasoline Prices – Part 2

June 26, 2019 ,

June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) colleague, Professor Severin Borenstein, the retail gasoline prices in this state are higher than the U.S. average, even after deducting California’s high taxes and fees....
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California Gasoline Prices

May 28, 2019 ,

May 28, 2019 By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the upside, this issue always gets the attention of consumers and politicians. Our first engagement to look at this subject came from the California Energy...
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Breaking down California’s gasoline price spike

April 17, 2019 ,

April 17, 2019 By Kendra Seymour California’s gasoline prices consistently outpace average pump prices across the U.S., but in the past month, Californians have experienced an average price increase of roughly 60 cents per gallon, spiking the Golden State’s fuel prices even higher than usual, as you can see in the chart from GasBuddy, below. What’s going on here? Why...
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How the Midwest bomb cyclone could impact gasoline prices throughout the U.S.

April 8, 2019

April 8, 2019 By Barry Schaps Whoever heard of a bomb cyclone weather event? In case you haven’t, here’s the rundown: A bomb cyclone is the rapid development of a “cyclonic low-pressure area” which occurs most frequently in marine environments in the winter months but can occur in continental settings and at other times of the year. Residents and farmers...
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Water Management in the Downstream

February 20, 2019

February 20, 2019 by E.J. Ledet Water contamination incidents in the transportation fuels supply chain can have a dramatic effect on fuel quality. Fortunately, such incidents can be prevented with the implementation of proper water-management procedures. In this article, we identify the common water contamination issues along the downstream fuels supply chain and offer helpful checklists to avoid contamination incidents....
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West Coast Crude Oil Supply

November 1, 2018

November 1, 2018 by David Hackett Last month, our friends at RBN Energy held a conference in Houston (of course) to bring together people interested in the development of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin in West Texas. Figure 1. Crude-Producing Regions in the United States Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration The Permian has...
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Has California Gasoline Demand Peaked?

October 17, 2018 ,

October 17, 2018 by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage as the result of the...
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Projecting the Costs of California’s Cap & Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Programs

July 25, 2018 , ,

July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make informed decisions. To that end, Stillwater’s carbon policy team recently conducted an analysis of the potential impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Carbon Cap & Trade (C&T) programs...
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After the Deluge: Gasoline supply constraints following Harvey and Irma

September 14, 2017

September 13, 2017 Our hearts go out to our friends and colleagues in Texas and Florida as they start to rebuild after the destruction from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Stillwater’s Houston-area associates were able to weather Hurricane Harvey in good shape, managing to stay safe and dry while helping their neighbors. According to Barry Schaps, the official rain gauge nearest...
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How much “Ethanol Free” gasoline is out there?

November 16, 2016

November 15, 2016 By David Hackett The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires increasingly high levels of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuel. Ethanol provides the largest share of the renewable fuel pool so that nearly all of the gasoline sold in the U.S. is 10% ethanol. With this volume it would be easy to assume that there...
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LCFS Credit Price: What’s behind the nose dive?

August 9, 2016

August 9, 2016 Back in February, LCFS credit prices were trading for about $130 per metric tonne (MT). Prices were fairly steady through the spring, and then something happened in July to make the price drop. LCFS credits lost more than half of their value from February, hitting the $56/MT mark in the last week of July. Prices have rebounded...
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Recap from Stillwater’s 2016 Annual Meeting

May 2, 2016

May 2, 2016 On April 2nd Stillwater held our 6th Annual Meeting in Irvine, CA. The Annual Meeting originated in 2011 with a handful of people sitting around a kitchen table discussing the future of the company. Since then it’s grown to a weekend-long event with 29 attendees, starting with a kick-off party at Stillwater World Headquarters. Associates flew in...
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Bubble Map Update: Drop in Oil Prices Takes the Steam out of the Mid Continent

December 10, 2015 ,

December 10, 2015   The December Bubble Map shows crude oil prices dropping overall while differentials to WTI have remained relatively stable. Prices on December 9th show WTI dropping from $46 to $37 since our last blog in October. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly at $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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Notes from the AFPM Annual Meeting

April 15, 2015

April 14, 2015 by David Hackett The AFPM Annual Meeting was back in San Antonio this year. Every year I find this four-day event educational, fun and exhausting. It seems like every day goes from 7 AM to Midnight and is filled with meetings, eating and drinking. The San Antonio hometown oil companies host big parties and there are plenty...
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ANS Feels the Squeeze on the West Coast

October 30, 2014

October 30, 2014   On Monday with WTI priced at $81 per barrel, Eagle Ford and WTI-Midland were listed at parity with WTI. Bakken at Clearbrook came in at $13 under WTI. While the Western Canadian Select differential has narrowed to $7 under WTI. While we’re seeing discounts in the Mid Continent, prices on the coasts continue to drop. Brent...
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Lone Star State Makes it Inside the Bubble

September 26, 2014

September 26, 2014   Crude oil prices in the Texas tight oil producing regions are suffering from the same over-supply problem as the Mid Continent. There’s a lot of crude oil in Texas and prices reflect the oversupply. For that reason, the Bubble has been stretched a bit to include the Lone Star State. Prices for WTI-Midland and Eagle Ford...
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Casino Royale: California’s Fuels Under the Cap Program

August 19, 2014 ,

August 19, 2014 by David Hackett Market participants are starting to speculate about the next phase of Cap & Trade under California’s AB32 the Global Warming Solutions Act. That phase, Fuels Under the Cap, is designed to control Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from transportation fuel, including gasoline, diesel, propane and natural gas. The first phase of Cap & Trade includes...
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The Last Bubble Map of 2013 – ANS Skyrockets

January 24, 2014

December 12, 2013 The last Bubble Map of the year shows the Bakken discount has narrowed since we last checked in. On December 9th, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $10 under WTI. But the WCS discount has widened to $26. Maya remains at $9 under WTI. The Brent, Louisiana Light Sweet and Alaska North Slope differentials have all...
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A Veerry Scaarrry October Bubble Map

January 24, 2014

October 18, 2013   Well…not really. But the Bakken discount has widened since we last checked in. On October 16, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $12 under WTI. LLS was priced $1 over WTI and Brent was $9 over. San Joaquin Valley Heavy has dropped to $5 under WTI. Alaska North Slope was $2 over WTI on October...
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What We Did On Our Summer Vacation

January 24, 2014

September 9, 2013 Well, the kids are back at school and we’re all back working away. The kids will be asked, “What did you do this summer?” Our kids will be writing about Disneyland, stand-up paddle boarding (coming nose to whiskers with sea lions), and surfing in Southern California. We had a very full summer schedule at Stillwater and everyone...
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Bubble Map Update for July

January 24, 2014

July 25, 2013   Mexican Maya differential returns to the latest edition of the Bubble Map! The last time Maya appeared on the Bubble Map, way back in April, it was $7 over. We found a new price-reporting source for Maya that show it $5 under WTI on July 24th. Yesterday, Bakken at the wellhead was discounted by $22, but...
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June Bubble Map: Rail is the Big Winner

January 24, 2014

June 5, 2013   In the June Bubble Map we see some interesting differentials west of the Bubble. The WTI-San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential is the tightest we’ve seen…ever. SJVH is just a $2 premium over WTI, down from $6 in our last post. The WTI-ANS differential has also tightened to $7 over, down from $10 last month. It looks...
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Crude Oil Over Supply in the Mid Continent

January 24, 2014

January 8, 2013 We’re back in the New Year with an updated Bubble Map. Crude oil prices have gone up across the board since our last blog post on November 27. Differentials between WTI and most marker crudes have tightened, except for WCS. The WCS discount has deepened since before the holidays to $36 under WTI. Oversupply in the Mid...
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The Southern California Gas Price Spike

January 24, 2014

October 7, 2012 What happened in the spot market? Spot prices started to move up on refinery problems on 9/27. By Monday, October 1, the spot was up 30 cpg On that Monday, Exxon Mobil’s Torrance refinery lost power due to an equipment failure at Southern California Edison. Spot prices rose to 83 cpg to $4.22 by Wednesday. On Thursday...
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Price Differentials Inside the Bubble Improve

January 24, 2014

August 8, 2012 Crude oil prices are up considerably since our last blog post. WTI closed at $94 on August 7th, up $6. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. However, the San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential has shrunk to $5 over WTI, down from $9 last week. Discounts in the Mid Continent have tightened. Bakken’s...
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June Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

June 20, 2012 Crude oil spot prices have remained in about the same place since the last blog post, except for Western Canadian Select and Bakken.  WCS has dropped another $2 from June 1, to $22 under WTI.  The Canadian Pacific Railway strike, that ended last Friday, may have played a small part in the bottleneck.  Although CP does not...
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Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

May 17, 2012 We continue to keep a close eye on the crude oil supply situation in the mid continent. Since the last blog post, the price differentials of marker crudes have shrunk. As you can see from the map, on May 16, WTI was selling at $99 a barrel, down from $103 a barrel this time last month. Brent...
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Breaking Out of the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

April 7, 2012   Oil market observers know that there is a disconnect between the prices of the two benchmark light sweet crude oils, West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent. In the past, these oils traded for about the same price. The difference, or spread, between WTI and Brent opened up when more and more crude oil began to...
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State of Canadian Crude Oil Supply in the U.S.

January 24, 2014

January 11, 2012 By David Hackett   The School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary published “Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada” on December 15, 2011. The paper “…examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential...
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What is the latest on California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard?

January 24, 2014

January 3, 2011 By David Hackett Stillwater has been following the LCFS issues from the start and we have concerns about the feasibility of the biofuels program to meet the carbon intensity goals at an affordable price. Our calculations indicate that the regulation will increase motorists’ costs by billions of dollars per year as the transportation fuel industry is forced...
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Why is Gasoline in California so Cheap?

January 24, 2014

By David Hackett An energy analyst friend of mine from the East Coast called and asked me why gasoline prices are so cheap in California. This is a question I have been puzzling over all summer. Of course, most readers are going to say, “What are you talking about? Retail gas prices in LA are around $3.75. That’s not cheap!”...
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High Crude Oil Prices Prompt SPR Murmurs

January 24, 2014

August 22, 2012 Crude oil prices are up this week with WTI closing at $97 on August 22nd. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. The price of Bakken remains relatively in line with WTI at $1 under. The WCS discount continues to tighten to $11 under from $14 on August 14th. With global crude oil...
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Big Week in West Coast Refinery News

August 15, 2012

August 15, 2012 The price of Bakken is nearly in line with WTI this week, to just $0.50 under. The price of WTI remained about the same, closing at $93 on August 14th. The spread between WTI and WCS has tightened to $14 under, from $16 under WTI on August 7th. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes are...
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