Stillwater Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

Stillwater Benchmark for Refinery Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs

November 9, 2018 Economics, Policy, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

November 9, 2018 1.4 cpg   This benchmark represents the cost in cents per gallon of CARBOB gasoline and CARB diesel incurred by the refining sector under of the stationary source provision of California’s Cap and Trade program (Stationary Source Cap and Trade or SSC&T). Stillwater’s Benchmark for Refinery SSC&T Cost is calculated using the following formula: Actual Refining Sector...
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West Coast Crude Oil Supply

November 1, 2018 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

November 1, 2018 by David Hackett Last month, our friends at RBN Energy held a conference in Houston (of course) to bring together people interested in the development of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin in West Texas. Figure 1. Crude-Producing Regions in the United States Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration The Permian has...
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Has California Gasoline Demand Peaked?

October 17, 2018 Economics, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage as the result of the Corporate Average Fuel...
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Projecting the Costs of California’s Cap & Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Programs

July 25, 2018 Economics, Policy, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make informed decisions. To that end, Stillwater’s carbon policy team recently conducted an analysis of the potential impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Carbon Cap & Trade (C&T) programs...
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Bubble Map Update: Trapped in the Permian!

June 7, 2018 Economics, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

  The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed how restricted pipeline capacity had led to big Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts. Now, four months later, the bubble map tells the same story of crude oil production outpacing logistics – only this time in West Texas. On June 5th, spot West Texas...
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Bubble Map Update: Restricted Pipeline Capacity Leads to Big WCS discounts

February 13, 2018 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

* Reflects anecdotal prices not posted prices The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed evidence of the lingering effects of recovery from Hurricane Harvey. Now, five months after that storm, the bubble map tells a different story. On February 13th, spot WTI was quoted at $59 per barrel, with...
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Innovation in Transportation Energy

October 11, 2017 News, Technology Development, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 9, 2017 by Dave Hackett Stillwater has always been interested in technology development in the transportation fuel space. We help clients figure out how their new fuels or fuel-related technologies fit into the supply chain. Our first project, back in the day, was a dot-com. The objective was to help reduce transaction costs in the tanker business by using...
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Bubble Map Update: Post-Hurricane Price Differentials Drive Exports

October 10, 2017 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 10, 2017 This month we check back in on our crude oil spot prices in bubble map form – the first time we’ve done so since January. On October 10th spot WTI was quoted at $51 per barrel, with Brent $5 higher. Western Canadian Select was discounted at $13 under WTI. On the Gulf Coast, crude oil from shale...
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After the Deluge: Gasoline supply constraints following Harvey and Irma

September 14, 2017 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

September 13, 2017 Our hearts go out to our friends and colleagues in Texas and Florida as they start to rebuild after the destruction from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Stillwater’s Houston-area associates were able to weather Hurricane Harvey in good shape, managing to stay safe and dry while helping their neighbors. According to Barry Schaps, the official rain gauge nearest...
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Bubble Map Update 2017: My How Things Have Changed

January 26, 2017 Economics, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 25, 2017 This month, we decided to take a look back at January 2016 and compare it to our first Bubble Map of 2017. Last year at this time oil prices were in the basement. In our January 15, 2016 blog, WTI was listed at $29 per barrel, with Brent in the same spot. Oil prices are definitely looking...
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How much “Ethanol Free” gasoline is out there?

November 16, 2016 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

November 15, 2016 By David Hackett The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires increasingly high levels of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuel. Ethanol provides the largest share of the renewable fuel pool so that nearly all of the gasoline sold in the U.S. is 10% ethanol. With this volume it would be easy to assume that there...
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Bubble Map Update: Imports on the Rise

October 12, 2016 Economics, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 12, 2016 This month in Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard we thought it might be a good idea to dust off the Bubble Map and take a look at the differentials around the country. Back in January when we declared the Mid Continent crude oil arbitrage closed, WTI was $29 a barrel. While prices have gone up since then,...
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LCFS Credit Price: What’s behind the nose dive?

August 9, 2016 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 9, 2016 Back in February, LCFS credit prices were trading for about $130 per metric tonne (MT). Prices were fairly steady through the spring, and then something happened in July to make the price drop. LCFS credits lost more than half of their value from February, hitting the $56/MT mark in the last week of July. Prices have rebounded...
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Recap from Stillwater’s 2016 Annual Meeting

May 2, 2016 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

May 2, 2016 On April 2nd Stillwater held our 6th Annual Meeting in Irvine, CA. The Annual Meeting originated in 2011 with a handful of people sitting around a kitchen table discussing the future of the company. Since then it’s grown to a weekend-long event with 29 attendees, starting with a kick-off party at Stillwater World Headquarters. Associates flew in...
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Bubble Map Update: Crumbling Crude Prices Flip Logistics

January 19, 2016 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 18, 2016 The first Bubble Map of 2016 shows crude oil prices continuing to fall. Prices on January 15th have WTI dropping from $37 to $29 since our last blog in December. The Brent price has also dropped to $29, driving the Brent differential just cents under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has narrowed slightly to $12 under...
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Bubble Map Update: Drop in Oil Prices Takes the Steam out of the Mid Continent

December 10, 2015 Economics, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

December 10, 2015   The December Bubble Map shows crude oil prices dropping overall while differentials to WTI have remained relatively stable. Prices on December 9th show WTI dropping from $46 to $37 since our last blog in October. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly at $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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Bubble Map Update: Torrance Refinery Troubles Lead to SJVH Discount

October 16, 2015 Mergers and Acquisitions, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 16, 2015   The October Bubble Map shows WTI holding steady at $46 since our last blog in August. The WTI/Brent differential has narrowed to $2 over WTI. The Bakken discount has also narrowed to $4 under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has widened to $15 under WTI. On the Gulf Coast, crude oil from the shale formations...
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Bubble Map Update: The Crude-by-Rail “Arb” to California is Closed

August 6, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 5, 2015   The August Bubble Map shows crude oil prices trending down since we last checked in at the end of June. WTI is down $7 since our last post at $46 per barrel on August 4th. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly to $4 over WTI. The Bakken discount has narrowed to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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Bubble Map Update: How the Oil Spill Impacts the California Supply Chain

June 28, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

June 27, 2015   The June Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $4 since our last post at $63 per barrel on June 25th. The WTI/Brent differential has tightened to $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $14 under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has also increased...
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Bubble Map Update: Supply Disruptions Raise Prices in California

May 20, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

May 19, 2015   The May Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing on the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $7 since our last post, at $59 per barrel on May 18th. The WTI/Brent differential remains at $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price also stays steady at $3 over WTI. Bakken continues to stay $12...
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Thoughts on an Interview with KPIX on Imported Canadian Crude Oil to the SF Bay

April 28, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

April 28, 2015 by David Hackett One of the exciting parts of my job is talking to reporters about trends in the transportation energy market. Sometimes these interviews even make it to television. For the television interviews, I often spend a couple of hours with reporters and producers laying out how the market works and discussing the finer points of...
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Bubble Map Update: Crude Prices Up Slightly as Production Slows

April 15, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

April 15, 2015   The April Bubble Map finds crude oil prices on a slight uptick. WTI broke the $50 threshold and was priced at $52 per barrel on April 13th. The WTI/Brent differential has tightened to $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price has gone up, rising to $3 over WTI. Alaska’s Dalton Highway, the lone road leading...
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Notes from the AFPM Annual Meeting

April 15, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

April 14, 2015 by David Hackett The AFPM Annual Meeting was back in San Antonio this year. Every year I find this four-day event educational, fun and exhausting. It seems like every day goes from 7 AM to Midnight and is filled with meetings, eating and drinking. The San Antonio hometown oil companies host big parties and there are plenty...
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Bubble Map Update: Is the Discount Party Over?

February 26, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

February 25, 2015   The February Bubble Map finds crude oil prices creeping back up. While the WTI price remains at $49 per barrel, Brent has risen to $9 over WTI. The spike in the price of Brent can be attributed to concerns over lower supply levels due to the unrest in Libya, which has all but shut down crude...
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Bubble Map Update: Crude Oil Oversupply Leads to Creative Storage Solutions

January 21, 2015 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 20, 2015   2015 kicks off with crude oil prices continuing to fall, having dropped over 50 percent since last June. It’s great news for drivers as retail prices have dropped to a nationwide average of $2.05. And it doesn’t seem like anything can stop this party. Even the dreaded California Cap-and-Trade price hike has yet to materialize. Crude...
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Very Merry Bubble Map: A Gift at the Gas Station

December 11, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

December 11, 2014   Filling up the Stillwater Honda Odyssey cost a very jolly $45 this week, the delightful effect of a glut of crude oil supply. The drop in prices at the pump is giving consumers a little unexpected year-end bonus. Crude oil spot prices are the lowest they’ve been since we started this blog. On Monday WTI hit...
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ANS Feels the Squeeze on the West Coast

October 30, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 30, 2014   On Monday with WTI priced at $81 per barrel, Eagle Ford and WTI-Midland were listed at parity with WTI. Bakken at Clearbrook came in at $13 under WTI. While the Western Canadian Select differential has narrowed to $7 under WTI. While we’re seeing discounts in the Mid Continent, prices on the coasts continue to drop. Brent...
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Lone Star State Makes it Inside the Bubble

September 26, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

September 26, 2014   Crude oil prices in the Texas tight oil producing regions are suffering from the same over-supply problem as the Mid Continent. There’s a lot of crude oil in Texas and prices reflect the oversupply. For that reason, the Bubble has been stretched a bit to include the Lone Star State. Prices for WTI-Midland and Eagle Ford...
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Casino Royale: California’s Fuels Under the Cap Program

August 19, 2014 White Papers, Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 19, 2014 by David Hackett Market participants are starting to speculate about the next phase of Cap & Trade under California’s AB32 the Global Warming Solutions Act. That phase, Fuels Under the Cap, is designed to control Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from transportation fuel, including gasoline, diesel, propane and natural gas. The first phase of Cap & Trade includes...
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The Spring Bubble Map: Pipelines Help to Ease the Bottleneck

March 23, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

  March 23, 2014 The latest Bubble Map shows the Bakken discount has narrowed considerably since we last checked in. On March 20th Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $4 under WTI. The WCS discount has also narrowed to $19 under WTI. On the Gulf Coast, the LLS premium to WTI has shrunk to $3 over while Maya’s discount...
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The Last Bubble Map of 2013 – ANS Skyrockets

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

December 12, 2013 The last Bubble Map of the year shows the Bakken discount has narrowed since we last checked in. On December 9th, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $10 under WTI. But the WCS discount has widened to $26. Maya remains at $9 under WTI. The Brent, Louisiana Light Sweet and Alaska North Slope differentials have all...
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A Veerry Scaarrry October Bubble Map

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 18, 2013   Well…not really. But the Bakken discount has widened since we last checked in. On October 16, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $12 under WTI. LLS was priced $1 over WTI and Brent was $9 over. San Joaquin Valley Heavy has dropped to $5 under WTI. Alaska North Slope was $2 over WTI on October...
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What We Did On Our Summer Vacation

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

September 9, 2013 Well, the kids are back at school and we’re all back working away. The kids will be asked, “What did you do this summer?” Our kids will be writing about Disneyland, stand-up paddle boarding (coming nose to whiskers with sea lions), and surfing in Southern California. We had a very full summer schedule at Stillwater and everyone...
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Bubble Map Update for July

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

July 25, 2013   Mexican Maya differential returns to the latest edition of the Bubble Map! The last time Maya appeared on the Bubble Map, way back in April, it was $7 over. We found a new price-reporting source for Maya that show it $5 under WTI on July 24th. Yesterday, Bakken at the wellhead was discounted by $22, but...
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Bubble Map Update: Bakken at Clearbrook Selling at a Premium

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

June 17, 2013   The June 14th Bubble Map shows some big changes in the Bakken at Clearbrook price. The differential at Clearbrook has been volatile since we last checked in. It peaked at a $3.50 premium earlier last week, settling at a $2 premium over WTI last Friday. The Bakken differential at the wellhead was unchanged. The WCS discount...
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June Bubble Map: Rail is the Big Winner

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

June 5, 2013   In the June Bubble Map we see some interesting differentials west of the Bubble. The WTI-San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential is the tightest we’ve seen…ever. SJVH is just a $2 premium over WTI, down from $6 in our last post. The WTI-ANS differential has also tightened to $7 over, down from $10 last month. It looks...
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May Bubble Map: MidContinent Crudes Getting to the Coast Lead to Tighter Differentials

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

May 14, 2013   We’ve given the Bubble Map a fresh look for spring. It’s a little less busy, but still contains the same great information. Notice the two price differentials for Bakken, one at the wellhead and one at Clearbrook, MN. We thought it would be instructive to show the cost of moving the crude by truck to the...
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April Bubble Map: Eased Up Price Differentials in the Mid Continent

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

April 8, 2013 The April edition of the Bubble Map shows that Mid Continent price differentials to the coast have gone down since our last update in January when Brent was $18 over WTI. The WTI/WCS differential is the narrowest since last October. WCS prices generally strengthen in spring because the start of the paving season improves demand for asphalt....
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Stillwater Study Debunks Allegations of West Coast Gasoline Price Manipulation

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

February 15, 2013 When gasoline prices in California shot up to record levels last fall, the public was reasonably frustrated and the media and policy makers were eager to understand the root causes of the spike. Stillwater monitors crude oil and retail gasoline prices daily and we wrote extensively about this price spike on our blog. Our take on the...
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Pacific Rim Refiners Won’t Wait Forever for Canadian Crude Oil

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

February 8, 2013 Pacific Rim refineries have the capacity for Canadian heavy crude oil, but the window for opportunity is narrow. Unless crude oil producers in Alberta can find a way to get their product to refiners in the Pacific Rim consistently, those refiners will start looking for heavy crude elsewhere. On Thursday, the University of Calgary School of Public...
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Refinery Turnarounds, Switch to Summer Blends and Market Speculation Driving Price Spike

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

February 5, 2013 The average price for retail gasoline in Los Angeles yesterday was $4.03, 23 cents higher than the price last Monday of $3.77. It’s typical this time of year for retail prices to rise, but this price spike is unique because prices have jumped so high so quickly. There are three factors driving this price spike. First, it’s...
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Crude Oil Over Supply in the Mid Continent

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 8, 2013 We’re back in the New Year with an updated Bubble Map. Crude oil prices have gone up across the board since our last blog post on November 27. Differentials between WTI and most marker crudes have tightened, except for WCS. The WCS discount has deepened since before the holidays to $36 under WTI. Oversupply in the Mid...
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Aftermath of the October Price Spike and the Latest Bubble Map

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

November 27, 2012 The price of gasoline in California has stabilized, a gallon of regular in Los Angeles today was $3.79, down $0.91 from the height of the spike on October 8th. And now the congressional investigations are heating up. At the California Senate hearing on the price spike held earlier this month, energy consultant Robert McCullough presented a report...
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2-for-1 Friday: Bubble Map and Gasoline Price Spike Update

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

November 15, 2012 The Bubble Map is back! Since we last checked in crude oil spot prices have fallen. The price of WTI has dropped $10 since the end of August to $85.45 on November 15th. The price differential between WTI and WCS has doubled to $32 under. Limited pipeline capacity is to blame for the slump in the price...
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The Southern California Gas Price Spike

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

October 7, 2012 What happened in the spot market? Spot prices started to move up on refinery problems on 9/27. By Monday, October 1, the spot was up 30 cpg On that Monday, Exxon Mobil’s Torrance refinery lost power due to an equipment failure at Southern California Edison. Spot prices rose to 83 cpg to $4.22 by Wednesday. On Thursday...
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Brent and LLS Prices Off due to Increase in Crude Inventories

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 29, 2012 Gulf Coast crude differentials dropped this week due to a surprise bump in crude inventories. The price of WTI is down slightly from last week, closing at $96 on August 28th. The prices of Brent and Louisiana Light Sweet have dropped $3, to $17 and $15 over WTI respectively. While prices in the Gulf Coast are off,...
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Price Differentials Inside the Bubble Improve

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 8, 2012 Crude oil prices are up considerably since our last blog post. WTI closed at $94 on August 7th, up $6. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. However, the San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential has shrunk to $5 over WTI, down from $9 last week. Discounts in the Mid Continent have tightened. Bakken’s...
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Pipeline Disruption Creates Deep WCS Discount

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 1, 2012 WTI closed at $88 on July 31st, unchanged from our last blog post. The spreads between WTI and Brent, Alaska North Slope and San Joachin Valley Heavy are up. The Brent spread is up $2 from July 16, to $18. Discounts in the Mid Continent have widened again. Bakken’s discount is back to $5 under WTI. The...
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July Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

July 16, 2012   Since our last blog post, crude oil prices have rebounded. WTI closed at $88 on July 16th, up $4 since we last checked in. LLS and Brent prices have also risen. The spread between LLS and WTI is up $7 from our last post, to $19 on July 16th. The spread between Brent and WTI is...
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June Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

June 20, 2012 Crude oil spot prices have remained in about the same place since the last blog post, except for Western Canadian Select and Bakken.  WCS has dropped another $2 from June 1, to $22 under WTI.  The Canadian Pacific Railway strike, that ended last Friday, may have played a small part in the bottleneck.  Although CP does not...
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June Opens with More Volatiltiy Inside the Bubble

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

June 5, 2012 The last time we checked in on the Mid Continent Bubble, the price differentials between WTI and Bakken and WCS had softened.  On May 16, Bakken was $2 under the WTI price of $93 per barrel, and WCS was $15 under.  Since then the price of crude oil has dropped. WTI sold at $86 per barrel on...
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Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

May 17, 2012 We continue to keep a close eye on the crude oil supply situation in the mid continent. Since the last blog post, the price differentials of marker crudes have shrunk. As you can see from the map, on May 16, WTI was selling at $99 a barrel, down from $103 a barrel this time last month. Brent...
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Breaking Out of the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

April 7, 2012   Oil market observers know that there is a disconnect between the prices of the two benchmark light sweet crude oils, West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent. In the past, these oils traded for about the same price. The difference, or spread, between WTI and Brent opened up when more and more crude oil began to...
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State of Canadian Crude Oil Supply in the U.S.

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 11, 2012 By David Hackett   The School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary published “Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada” on December 15, 2011. The paper “…examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential...
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What is the latest on California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard?

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

January 3, 2011 By David Hackett Stillwater has been following the LCFS issues from the start and we have concerns about the feasibility of the biofuels program to meet the carbon intensity goals at an affordable price. Our calculations indicate that the regulation will increase motorists’ costs by billions of dollars per year as the transportation fuel industry is forced...
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Why is Gasoline in California so Cheap?

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

By David Hackett An energy analyst friend of mine from the East Coast called and asked me why gasoline prices are so cheap in California. This is a question I have been puzzling over all summer. Of course, most readers are going to say, “What are you talking about? Retail gas prices in LA are around $3.75. That’s not cheap!”...
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High Crude Oil Prices Prompt SPR Murmurs

January 24, 2014 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 22, 2012 Crude oil prices are up this week with WTI closing at $97 on August 22nd. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. The price of Bakken remains relatively in line with WTI at $1 under. The WCS discount continues to tighten to $11 under from $14 on August 14th. With global crude oil...
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Big Week in West Coast Refinery News

August 15, 2012 Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard

August 15, 2012 The price of Bakken is nearly in line with WTI this week, to just $0.50 under. The price of WTI remained about the same, closing at $93 on August 14th. The spread between WTI and WCS has tightened to $14 under, from $16 under WTI on August 7th. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes are...
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