Weighing Market Forces to Make Informed Decisions

The economics of transportation energy are dictated by supply and demand, the location of the market, inventories, and government regulations. Stillwater Associates develops economic analyses around these issues to help clients make the best choices for their businesses. We work with established industry players and emerging businesses to assess weaknesses and define opportunities. Our analysis guides our clients to make innovative decisions that lead to business success.

Renewable Fuels Market Feasibility Studies

Leveraging our knowledge of the market, Stillwater offers studies on new product market feasibility, specifically in the renewable fuels space. Clients in the renewable fuels sector rely on Stillwater to study the potential for biofuels in the overall energy market. Since the phase out of MTBE created opportunities for corn ethanol in the late 1990’s, to the implementation of the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), biofuels and petroleum fuels have become inextricably linked. Stillwater has provided studies on the growth of biofuels markets from their infancy. We have performed baseline market studies on all renewable transportation fuels including ethanol, bio and renewable diesel, natural and bio LNG and CNG, and hydrogen. From the price of feedstocks, to refining technology and capacity, to fueling infrastructure and vehicle technology, Stillwater has provided our clients in this space detailed reports and recommendations on opportunities and risks.

Fuel Price Forecasts

Fuel prices are susceptible to global and local events alike. An indication that OPEC may raise their production ceiling can cause crude oil prices to drop. A refinery outage in California can raise retail prices in the state quickly and drastically. Clients like airlines, trucking companies, shipping companies, railroads, and other large consumers of fuel turn to Stillwater for guidance on the likely direction of fuel prices in the future. Using available data including the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), pricing data from subscription services, and leveraging our industry contacts, Stillwater develops comprehensive fuel price forecasts that provide a thorough view of the current and future markets. This guidance explains the factors that drive energy price forecasts – supply, demand, inventories, transportation, and governmental regulation.

Our experience runs deep

Stillwater Associates understands what drives the transportation fuel economy. Our team is committed to providing our clients the latest economic data, in-depth analysis, and guidance to create competitive advantage.

Please contact us to learn more about our economics services.

Lead Team Members In Economics

  • Kimberly Barrett — Director of Project Management

    For the past five years Kim Barrett has offered annual fuel price forecasts for Kauai Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's annual energy outlook. This forecast helps KIUC plan for naphtha costs.

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  • James Ahrens — Senior Associate

    James Ahrens has accumulated broad experience in refinery economics and strategic planning over the years he worked for Mobil Oil, Stancil & Co., and Hart Energy. He has provided long- and short-term economic analysis for several refineries, including optimum short-term operating schedules, process unit operating targets, and crude selection. James also developed long-term capital planning strategies for the refineries and evaluated capital project economics. While working for Hart Energy, James developed market value assessments for various gasoline blending components in the U.S. to facilitate removal of methyl tert-butyl ether from gasoline. During his time with Stancil & Co. James provided technical and economic analysis assistance to individual clients for development of refinery capital planning and cash flow analyses, due diligence for mergers and asset acquisitions, and economic analysis for regulatory, insurance, and tax valuations assessments.

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  • Vaughn Hulleman — Senior Associate

    Vaughn Hulleman is a published energy economist with experience as an senior energy policy advisor with the Canadian federal government as well as in a range of projects in his 15-year management consulting career. Vaughn brings deep expertise in electricity policy gained while working in an Asia Pacific deregulation practice. He has led the business case development for several large pipeline projects and analyzed the fiscal framework promoting Gas To Liquid refining sector.

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  • Michael Leister — Senior Associate

    Among Michael Leister's expansive skill set is experience with regulatory economic analysis, refinery modeling, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions models, CO2 lifecycle analysis, and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. As a member and chair of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) economics workgroup, Michael has analyzed the economics around a wide range of issues including: reformulated gasoline (RFG), Tier 2, Tier 3, Mobile Sources Air Toxics (MSAT) 1 and 2, ultra-low sulfur diesel, the renewable fuels standard (RFS), renewable identification numbers (RIN), the E10 blendwall, and ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). While working for Marathon Petroleum Corporation Michael designed and built several refinery models for crude evaluation and analyzed the economic impacts of various regulations. He also modeled various facility, vehicle, fuel, and ozone emissions using EPA’s models and used various models for CO2 life cycle analysis, including the use of the GREET model as part of a National Petroleum Council study on future fuels and vehicles.

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Posts & News in Economics

California’s LCFS is successfully proliferating. Is it also successfully decarbonizing transport? - July 13, 2021 By Kendra Seymour As explained in our LCFS 101 Beginner’s Guide and LCFS 101 Update articles, California’s… > Read More
Changes to 45Q US Tax to Drive a New Wave of CCS Projects 45Q, Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, LCFS - June 16, 2021 By Vaughn Hulleman Of the technologies which will help to achieve energy transition goals, carbon capture and… > Read More
Stillwater’s Projected Costs of the Approved HB 1091 Clean Fuels Standard - June 15, 2021 The Washington Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) has been signed into law, but the details of program implementation… > Read More