Author Archives for Kendra Seymour

What does the recent decline in LCFS credit prices mean for the longer term?

October 19, 2021 10:50 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on What does the recent decline in LCFS credit prices mean for the longer term?

October 19, 2021 Recent volatility in the LCFS credit market has left many investors scratching their heads. What does this mean for the future of the program? How should we think about credit prices going forward? Stillwater Associates’ LCFS Team answers these questions and many more in our LCFS Credit Balance and Credit Price Outlook....
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Biden Administration Actions to Advance the Future of Sustainable Fuels in American Aviation

September 15, 2021 12:30 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Biden Administration Actions to Advance the Future of Sustainable Fuels in American Aviation

September 10, 2021 By Leigh Noda The aviation sector produces up to 11% of U.S. transportation GHG emissions, and on September 9th, the White House announced a series of executive actions to tackle those emissions by advancing the production and use of cleaner and more sustainable fuels across American aviation, improving aircraft fuel efficiency, and...
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How might a Minnesota LCFS play out?

September 14, 2021 3:18 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How might a Minnesota LCFS play out?

September 14, 2021 by Adam Schubert In the U.S., several programs aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of energy of fuels used in transportation. California and Oregon both have low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs, one Canadian Province (British Columbia) also has a transport fuels GHG-reduction program, and Canada is in the...
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The Oil Industry’s Bright Green Energy Future

September 2, 2021 1:50 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on The Oil Industry’s Bright Green Energy Future

September 2, 2021 by Mike Newman, Director of Parhelion Underwriting The Oil industry is under pressure on many fronts in the climate change era, not least of which is from their shareholders. First, the background, from the investors’ perspective. Over the past 15 years, the annual total returns to shareholders for the average oil and gas...
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A Glimpse of the Near Future: Petroleum Product Landscape (2021-2023)

August 11, 2021 4:28 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on A Glimpse of the Near Future: Petroleum Product Landscape (2021-2023)

On August 10th, Stillwater Vice President of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented at the CTPMA 2021 Business Forum at the Broadmoor in Colorado. Megan’s presentation touches on the outlook for petroleum product demand, how the federal renewable fuel standard will continue to impact the transport fuels market, and what’s coming with state-level low carbon fuel standard...
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How might a New Mexico LCFS play out?

August 10, 2021 4:56 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How might a New Mexico LCFS play out?

August 10, 2021 by Adam Schubert In the U.S., several programs aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of energy of fuels used in transportation. California and Oregon both have low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs, one Canadian Province (British Columbia) also has a transport fuels GHG-reduction program, and Canada is in the...
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California’s LCFS is successfully proliferating. Is it also successfully decarbonizing transport?

July 13, 2021 4:36 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on California’s LCFS is successfully proliferating. Is it also successfully decarbonizing transport?

July 13, 2021 By Kendra Seymour As explained in our LCFS 101 Beginner’s Guide and LCFS 101 Update articles, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) by reducing the average carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels that are used in California. Overall program compliance is generally achieved through...
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Modern Alchemy – Waste into Sustainable Aviation Fuel

April 26, 2021 2:04 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Modern Alchemy – Waste into Sustainable Aviation Fuel

April 26, 2021 by Mike Newman, Director of Parhelion Underwriting As the aviation industry seeks to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, decoupling airline growth from carbon growth, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has emerged as the leading approach to further reduce GHG emissions from jet aircraft. The world’s aviation sector currently accounts for approximately 2-3%...
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How Do ZEV Emissions Stack Up Against Super-Clean Gasoline and Diesel Engines?

April 14, 2021 2:36 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How Do ZEV Emissions Stack Up Against Super-Clean Gasoline and Diesel Engines?

On April 12, 2021, Stillwater Senior Associate Gary Yowell presented at the SAE High-Efficiency IC Engine Symposium Digital Summit on the topic of how zero-emissions vehicles stack up against super-clean gasoline and diesel engines. To view a PDF version of Gary’s slide deck, click here.

Retail gasoline and diesel prices are sky-high. Why?

April 1, 2021 10:38 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Retail gasoline and diesel prices are sky-high. Why?

April 1, 2021 By Steve Holton In the first quarter of 2021, prices at the pump have been rising steadily, leading many people to complain once again about the price of gasoline. Have you ever wondered how the price of gasoline or diesel is derived? A multitude of factors impact the price we pay at...
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The Social Cost of Carbon Part I: How Does the U.S. Estimate the Cost of Climate Change?

March 29, 2021 5:04 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on The Social Cost of Carbon Part I: How Does the U.S. Estimate the Cost of Climate Change?

March 29, 2021 By Marcy Casement The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) represents an estimate (in dollars) of the damage to society and the environment over time from each additional metric ton (MT) of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. This figure takes into account damage from the effects of climate change, such as sea-level...
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Is COVID-19 a Force Majeure Event?

March 25, 2021 8:27 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Is COVID-19 a Force Majeure Event?

March 25, 2021 By Barry Schaps The entire transportation fuels supply chain, from crude oil wellhead to the retail service station dispenser, is full of commercial contracts requiring parties to perform specified acts in specified ways within specified timeframes. The impacts of COVID-19 have disrupted normal business activities and upended commercial transactions which may result...
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How might the proposed Washington LCFS impact in-state renewable diesel production and use?

March 17, 2021 3:08 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How might the proposed Washington LCFS impact in-state renewable diesel production and use?

March 17, 2021 by Jim Mladenik The Washington state legislature is currently considering legislation (HB 1091) that would require fuel producers and importers to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to each unit of transportation fuel, a measure known as “carbon intensity.” Carbon intensity includes not only the emissions associated with burning fuels but also...
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How does Hydrogen compare to Biomass-Based Diesel on GHG, PM, and petroleum reduction?

March 3, 2021 6:43 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How does Hydrogen compare to Biomass-Based Diesel on GHG, PM, and petroleum reduction?

March 4, 2021 By Gary Yowell Over the last few years, the California state legislature has considered numerous bills which seek to incentivize the replacement of diesel fuel with hydrogen in the transportation sector. Such a transition would require significant investments in hydrogen retail infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and the legislature aims...
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As the RINs Spin

March 2, 2021 12:01 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on As the RINs Spin

March 1, 2021 By Adam Schubert With the completion of the current season of refiner quarterly earnings reports, federal Renewable Fuel Standard credits – known as renewable identification numbers, or RINs – prices are once more in the headlines. As RIN prices have increased since the beginning of 2020, it is worth taking another look...
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Potential Impacts of LCFS-Style Programs on Fuels Markets

February 15, 2021 2:23 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Potential Impacts of LCFS-Style Programs on Fuels Markets

February 15, 2021 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs are structured to reduce the carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels over time by setting progressively stricter CI reduction standards each year. All fuels with CI values higher than the standard, such as petroleum gasoline and diesel, generate deficits. Fuels produced or imported with CIs lower...
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Is it time for CARB & EPA to revise vehicle emission and emission-reduction estimates?

February 2, 2021 3:38 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Is it time for CARB & EPA to revise vehicle emission and emission-reduction estimates?

February 2, 2021 By Gary Yowell The California Air Resource Board (CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are empowered through the Clean Air Act and other legislation to expeditiously reduce the severity and number of violations to air quality standards.[1] Current environmental policy uses annual pollution levels to measure and define success, but...
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Sacramento policymakers drive California’s high gasoline prices

February 1, 2021 5:24 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Sacramento policymakers drive California’s high gasoline prices

February 1, 2021 By Leigh Noda California has a history of having the highest gasoline prices in the country. Why? For one, the West Coast fuels market is isolated from other supply/demand centers. As such, the West Coast is susceptible to unexpected outages of West Coast refineries as it is unable to backfill an unexpected...
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Flash Report: 3Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Build in the Credit Bank

January 29, 2021 4:05 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 3Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Build in the Credit Bank

January 29, 2021 On Friday afternoon, January 29th, CARB posted the third quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 3Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation for the six months following COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the third-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 3:  The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

January 15, 2021 8:40 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 3:  The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

January 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman with Leigh Noda and Barry Schaps In our first article in this three-part series, we identified the unique impacts of the pandemic on oil products’ demand and pointed out that by the time the pandemic has resolved, there will likely be increased environmental legislation risk negatively affecting the sector....
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EPA Issues Year-End Streamlining Rule

January 10, 2021 3:50 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on EPA Issues Year-End Streamlining Rule

January 10, 2021 By Mike Leister On December 4, 2020 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its final rule on streamlining the existing gasoline, diesel, and other fuel quality regulations by removing no-longer relevant provisions, getting rid of duplicate compliance provisions (e.g., duplicative registration requirements that are required by every EPA fuels program), dropping...
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Update: How many credits would go out-of-state if Washington implemented an LCFS?

December 18, 2020 1:18 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Update: How many credits would go out-of-state if Washington implemented an LCFS?

December 18, 2020 by Jim Mladenik A previous Stillwater analysis determined that roughly 75% of credits in Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) programs are derived from fuels produced outside of those states. The same analysis suggested that a similar trend is likely for Washington state should it adopt...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 2: A Fistful of Dollars

December 15, 2020 8:36 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 2: A Fistful of Dollars

December 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman with Leigh Noda and Barry Schaps On November 15th, we published the first article of a three-part series on downstream oil and gas mergers and acquisitions. That first article covered macro and regional factors that may help answer the question at hand. This is the second article in our...
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Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 1: Pssst… Want to Buy a Refinery?

November 18, 2020 4:26 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Downstream Oil & Gas M&A Part 1: Pssst… Want to Buy a Refinery?

November 15, 2020 By Vaughn Hulleman & Jim Mladenik The petroleum industry is known for its cyclic nature, and, traditionally, value-buyers find opportunity to acquire assets during periods of stress. The current reduction in oil products’ demand brought on by the pandemic, along with other factors, have severely distressed downstream oil and gas assets. Several...
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Amid year of global uncertainty, Stillwater launches West Coast Watch and proprietary Refining Margin Index

November 18, 2020 3:02 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Amid year of global uncertainty, Stillwater launches West Coast Watch and proprietary Refining Margin Index

On November 17th, Stillwater Associates launched the West Coast Watch. This market information portal provides refined petroleum product and renewable fuels supply and demand data, industry news, and analysis to help industry leaders understand the market, spot opportunities, and act confidently.   The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island,...
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Introducing the West Coast Watch Market Analysis

November 18, 2020 1:18 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Introducing the West Coast Watch Market Analysis

November 18, 2020 The West Coast transportation fuels market is rapidly changing with significant impacts just this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the push to de-carbonize the transport sector. Based on these factors and with an eye toward helping stakeholders navigate this challenging market, Stillwater is introducing our West Coast Watch market information...
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California’s Clean Truck Regulation: How will the ACT Impact Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Demand and Emissions?

November 18, 2020 1:11 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on California’s Clean Truck Regulation: How will the ACT Impact Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Demand and Emissions?

November 18, 2020 Through our new West Coast Watch platform, Stillwater is pleased to offer this forward-looking view on the possible changes to medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fuel demand and emissions under California’s Advanced Clean Truck Regulation. This Stillwater Special Report provides an overview of California’s Advanced Clean Truck Rule (ACT) and its impacts on...
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Flash Report: 2Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Draw on the Credit Bank

November 2, 2020 6:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 2Q2020 LCFS Data Show Slight Draw on the Credit Bank

November 2, 2020 On Friday afternoon, October 30th, CARB posted the second quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 2Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation for the three months following stay-at-home orders due to COVID-19. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the second quarter data. Our...
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West Coast Watch: Ugly Refiner Margins Linger as Pandemic Drags On

October 22, 2020 1:44 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast Watch: Ugly Refiner Margins Linger as Pandemic Drags On

October 22, 2020 By Kendra Seymour and Leigh Noda The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. West Coast refiners are isolated geographically, must produce gasoline and diesel to unique specifications, and are subject...
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West Coast LCFS Credits Generated by Fuels Produced Out-of-State

October 20, 2020 12:29 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast LCFS Credits Generated by Fuels Produced Out-of-State

October 20, 2020 by Jim Mladenik  Summary California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP) are designed to provide significant financial incentives for the production and blending of low-carbon fuels into the states’ transportation fuels systems. These incentives can be large enough to spur development of numerous projects to reduce the...
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Turning a Blind Eye to Oil Spills in Venezuela

September 28, 2020 12:33 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Turning a Blind Eye to Oil Spills in Venezuela

September 28, 2020 By Barry Schaps The preface to Former National Security Advisor Lt. General H.R. McMaster’s new book Battlegrounds, published last week, begins with “This is not the book that most people wanted me to write.” Similarly, this article is not one our audience expects to find in Stillwater’s Newsletter, but its importance to...
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Part 2: What’s up with the new 100% ZEV mandate in California? An Internal Stillwater Conversation

September 24, 2020 12:54 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Part 2: What’s up with the new 100% ZEV mandate in California? An Internal Stillwater Conversation

September 24, 2020 By Kendra Seymour Yesterday, shortly after California’s governor Gavin Newsom announced his Executive Order mandating 100% ZEV car sales by 2035, I caught up with a few of my colleagues via Slack to get a better understanding of the issues around electrification. Thinking that this dialogue might be of interest to our readers,...
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What’s up with the new 100% ZEV mandate in California? An internal Stillwater conversation (Part 1)

September 23, 2020 8:29 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on What’s up with the new 100% ZEV mandate in California? An internal Stillwater conversation (Part 1)

September 23, 2020 By Kendra Seymour As editor of Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter and a contributor on many of Stillwater’s LCFS-related client projects, I spend most of my time researching and reporting around renewables markets and the programs which incentivize the development, deployment, and adoption of alternative fuels. Today, shortly after California’s governor Gavin Newsom announced his Executive...
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West Coast Watch: The Pandemic and Wildfires Pummel Refining Margins

September 22, 2020 7:38 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast Watch: The Pandemic and Wildfires Pummel Refining Margins

September 22, 2020 By Megan Boutwell The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. West Coast refiners are isolated geographically, must produce gasoline and diesel to unique specifications, and are subject to greenhouse gas...
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Stillwater Stars in Litigation Support

September 15, 2020 2:46 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Stillwater Stars in Litigation Support

September 15, 2020 By Barry Schaps You are probably familiar with expert witnesses in legal cases from their appearances on TV shows and in movies. But did you know that Stillwater Associates provides expert testimony and litigation support for cases involving the transportation fuels industry? In fact, litigation support is one of our core areas...
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Introducing the West Coast Watch Refining Margin Index

August 27, 2020 7:23 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Introducing the West Coast Watch Refining Margin Index

August 27, 2020 By Megan Boutwell The West Coast transportation fuels market is often referred to as an island, and refiners in California and Washington face unique market pressures even in the best of times. Geographic isolation, unique gasoline and diesel specifications, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction regulations including the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS),...
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Buying in the Dip

August 26, 2020 6:54 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Buying in the Dip

August 26, 2020 By Kendra Seymour By now, it’s no secret that the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing quarantine culture has had serious effects on transportation fuels markets as people are traveling by car and by plane much less frequently. These effects are likely to linger for some time, but eventually life...
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As California Burns, Diesel Trucks Clean the Air

August 25, 2020 9:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on As California Burns, Diesel Trucks Clean the Air

August 25, 2020 By Gary Yowell For the past week, dozens of lightning-induced wildfires have raged in California, resulting in unhealthy, smoke-laden air. The air quality is so poor that it has exceeded particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) ambient air quality standards. PM10 is smoke that can be trapped on a 10-micron filter, PM2.5 is...
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Flash Report: 1Q2020 LCFS Data Show Nearly 460,000 MT Draw on the Credit Bank

July 31, 2020 5:00 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 1Q2020 LCFS Data Show Nearly 460,000 MT Draw on the Credit Bank

July 31, 2020 Today, CARB posted the first quarter 2020 data for the LCFS program. The 1Q2020 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation as stay-at-home orders went into place due to COVID-19. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the first-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in...
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How Does California’s New Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Affect Diesel Demand?

July 13, 2020 11:05 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How Does California’s New Advanced Clean Trucks Rule Affect Diesel Demand?

July 13, 2020 By Gary Yowell On June 25, 2020, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule which seeks to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium-and heavy-duty truck sector and reduce harmful emissions generated from on-road mobile sources. Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles include the largest...
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The Search for Zero

July 6, 2020 10:48 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on The Search for Zero

July 6, 2020 By Adam Schubert A number of Stillwater’s clients come to us with questions concerning ethanol-free gasoline (E0).  These questions include items such as: Who uses E0 and why? How much E0 is being sold and where? What are the economics behind the product? In this article, we provide brief answers to those...
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West Coast Gasoline is Off the Bottom

July 6, 2020 10:31 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast Gasoline is Off the Bottom

July 6, 2020 By Dave Hackett We have all had a wild ride the last three months, and you can see that in transportation fuel statistics. This article builds on two earlier pieces in this series (one from April 15th and a second from May 7th), tracking the wild ride that fuels have taken along...
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West Coast Gasoline – Have we reached the bottom?

May 7, 2020 12:56 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast Gasoline – Have we reached the bottom?

May 7, 2020 By Dave Hackett I started the first article in this series on April 15th with a question: “When was the last time you filled up?” Well, I still have not had to fill up either car, but I am down to a quarter tank on mine.  Maybe this week. From a gasoline...
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A Peek at Stillwater’s Office-less Culture

May 6, 2020 1:14 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on A Peek at Stillwater’s Office-less Culture

May 6, 2020 by Megan Boutwell  In 1998, Dave Hackett started doing some consulting work out of his home office. For most of his career in transportation energy, Dave commuted from various homes in California, Connecticut, Virginia, and (again and finally) California to Mobil Oil offices in Los Angeles, Manhattan, Fairfax, back to Manhattan, and...
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Flash Report: 4Q2019 LCFS Data Show 160,000 MT Growth in the Credit Bank, RD Credits Sharply Rise

April 30, 2020 5:32 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 4Q2019 LCFS Data Show 160,000 MT Growth in the Credit Bank, RD Credits Sharply Rise

April 30, 2020 Today, CARB posted the fourth quarter 2019 data for the LCFS program. Although probably not the thing at the front of everyone’s minds given everything else going on in the world, the LCFS program rolls on, and the 4Q2019 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation going into 2020 and...
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Post-Coronavirus: What’s Next in the Environmental Commodities Markets

April 30, 2020 2:42 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Post-Coronavirus: What’s Next in the Environmental Commodities Markets

On April 30th, 2020, Stillwater President Dave Hackett participated in a webinar hosted by Parhelion Underwriting on the topic of how the fallout from COVID-19 will affect environmental commodities. Dave spoke about the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit markets. To view a PDF version of Dave’s slide...
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What’s going on with crude? An internal Stillwater conversation in real-time as oil prices plummeted

April 21, 2020 3:21 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on What’s going on with crude? An internal Stillwater conversation in real-time as oil prices plummeted

April 21, 2020 By Kendra Seymour As editor of Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter and a contributor on many of Stillwater’s LCFS-related client projects, I spend most of my time working in renewables markets. Yesterday, as crude markets began showing particularly rare volatility, however, I caught up with my colleague Barry Schaps via Slack to get a...
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COVID-19 and the LCFS: Groundhog Day

April 15, 2020 2:00 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on COVID-19 and the LCFS: Groundhog Day

April 15, 2020 By Leigh Noda For the past month, the Stillwater LCFS team has been publishing regular reports on how COVID-19 is affecting the LCFS program and the fuels markets governed by the program. This is the latest of that series. You can read our previous updates here. Want to receive updates like this and...
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West Coast Gasoline – Inventories Rise, Prices and Crude Runs Drop

April 15, 2020 1:28 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on West Coast Gasoline – Inventories Rise, Prices and Crude Runs Drop

April 15, 2020 (This article has been updated from the original April 14th version) By Dave Hackett When was the last time you filled up? For me, it was about a month ago. Since then, I’ve driven maybe 50 miles, mostly to the store and back. I used to fill up about once a week;...
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Rebalancing Refinery Jet Production for Covid-19 – How Low Can You Go?

April 15, 2020 9:21 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Rebalancing Refinery Jet Production for Covid-19 – How Low Can You Go?

April 14, 2020 By Adam Schubert For U.S. refiners, profitability is tightly linked to production of the three major “light” petroleum fuel products – gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Individual refineries are typically configured to optimize the yield of these three products with the most economical crudes available in their region and demand in accessible...
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COVID-19 and the LCFS: Ain’t No Sunshine

April 6, 2020 8:59 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on COVID-19 and the LCFS: Ain’t No Sunshine

April 3, 2020 Note: The title of today’s analysis pays tribute to onetime Navy aircraft mechanic and three-time Grammy Award winner Bill Withers who died March 30th. As AP reporter Mark Kennedy observed, Withers’ “death comes as the public has drawn inspiration from his music during the coronavirus pandemic, with health care workers, choirs, artists and more...
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Oh, What a Month! What does COVID-19 mean for the LCFS Credit Bank and Prices?

March 23, 2020 12:45 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Oh, What a Month! What does COVID-19 mean for the LCFS Credit Bank and Prices?

March 20, 2020 A month ago, WTI crude oil price closed at $52.10 per barrel, the Dow Jones closed at 29,232 and the S&P at 3,370. Yesterday, these values were $25.22, 20,087 and 2,409 respectively. Clearly, the past month has been unprecedented for both the crude oil and financial markets. Socially, almost everyone in the...
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COVID-19’s Economic Impacts on the LNG Market

March 11, 2020 8:50 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on COVID-19’s Economic Impacts on the LNG Market

March 11, 2020 By John Wolff Worldwide natural gas markets are unsettled by the current and plausible impacts of the COVID-19 virus.  There has been a widely reported reduction in Chinese crude oil and products demand as auto travel, commercial deliveries, and airline flights have been reduced. The likely duration of the economic impacts is...
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How the New Coronavirus and Crude Price War Could Dampen the RINs Markets and Boost the LCFS Credit Bank

March 10, 2020 2:11 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How the New Coronavirus and Crude Price War Could Dampen the RINs Markets and Boost the LCFS Credit Bank

March 10, 2020 By Leigh Noda The last week of February marked the biggest drop in the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. The S&P index was down 11.5% on the week ending February 28th. The Dow Jones was down 12.4% over the same week. This compares to the week ending October 10,...
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Just Taking Off

March 6, 2020 12:40 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Just Taking Off

On March 3, 2020, Stillwater’s VP of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented at the Aviation Noise & Emissions Symposium in San Diego. The summit was hosted by the UC Davis Air Quality Research Center. Megan spoke about Sustainable Aviation Fuel goals and trends. To view a PDF version of Megan’s slide deck, click here.

Food for Thought: Overly Aggressive NOx Reduction Has Delayed California’s Ozone Attainment by 15 Years

February 12, 2020 2:55 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Food for Thought: Overly Aggressive NOx Reduction Has Delayed California’s Ozone Attainment by 15 Years

February 12, 2020 By Gary Yowell The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has a long and proud history of ambitious reductions to air pollution which CARB deems necessary to meet ambient air quality standards. Continuing this 50-year trend, CARB is considering reducing its heavy-duty vehicles’ nitrogen oxides (NOx) standard by 90%. This new NOx standard[1]...
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IMO 2020: No Large Speed Bump Thus Far

February 11, 2020 1:47 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on IMO 2020: No Large Speed Bump Thus Far

February 11, 2020 By Ralph Grimmer Over the past three years, Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020. The long-awaited IMO 2020 regulations were implemented on January 1, 2020 – 40 days ago. In this article, we will provide our takeaways on how the initial rollout has gone,...
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Airlines want Renewable Jet Fuel, but Renewable Diesel is Stealing their Thunder

February 6, 2020 1:26 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Airlines want Renewable Jet Fuel, but Renewable Diesel is Stealing their Thunder

February 6, 2020 By Jim Mladenik Alternate jet fuel (AJF, also known as bio-jet or renewable jet fuel) has made the news lately as it is now included as an opt-in fuel under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and many airlines are clamoring to reduce their carbon footprints and paint themselves as more climate-friendly....
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Flash Report: 3Q2019 LCFS Data Show a Continued Slowing Trend in Net Deficits

February 3, 2020 1:25 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 3Q2019 LCFS Data Show a Continued Slowing Trend in Net Deficits

February 3, 2020 On January 31st, 2020 CARB posted the third quarter of 2019 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the third-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on February 14th. The third-quarter data...
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95 RON Gasoline and the Political CAFE Ping-Pong Game

January 15, 2020 2:41 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on 95 RON Gasoline and the Political CAFE Ping-Pong Game

January 15, 2020 By Ron Pike In an effort to further reduce hydrocarbon consumption in the U.S., 95 RON (Research Octane Number) gasoline has been suggested as a way to help achieve proposed higher corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements. A higher RON allows an internal combustion engine to run at a higher compression ratio,...
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California Gasoline Retail Margin Quick to Rise, Slow to Drop

January 10, 2020 10:52 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on California Gasoline Retail Margin Quick to Rise, Slow to Drop

January 10, 2020 By Kendra Seymour In the course of our work, and due to our own curiosity, Stillwater tracks the California gasoline market. We thought our findings might be interesting to our readers as well! In our latest review of the data, we see that the strength of the retail margin (retail less taxes...
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An Updated Guide to EPA’s Tier 3 Gasoline Sulfur Standards

January 5, 2020 10:59 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on An Updated Guide to EPA’s Tier 3 Gasoline Sulfur Standards

January 5, 2020 by Mike Leister and E.J. Ledet Effective January 1, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring all U.S. gasoline to meet an annual 10 parts per million (ppm) average sulfur requirement as part of its new Tier 3 vehicle and fuel regulations. (Stillwater wrote a quick guide to Tier 3...
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel – the key to CORSIA compliance

November 21, 2019 9:35 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Sustainable Aviation Fuel – the key to CORSIA compliance

November 21, 2019 By Megan Boutwell Last month we looked at how CORSIA, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation, is being implemented. The rule is currently in the baseline development phase and won’t be mandatory for international flights until 2027. This international rule is one pillar in...
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2Q2019 LCFS Data – Insights into the Future of Clean Fuels Programs

November 15, 2019 9:40 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on 2Q2019 LCFS Data – Insights into the Future of Clean Fuels Programs

November 15, 2019 By Leigh Noda On October 31st, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the data reported by fuel-reporting Entities into the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Reporting Tool (LRT) through the second quarter of 2019. Stillwater has analyzed the data and included our analysis in our Second Quarter 2019 LCFS Newsletter (subscription...
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Flash Report: 2Q2019 LCFS Data Show Slowing Drawdown of Credit Bank

November 4, 2019 3:35 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Flash Report: 2Q2019 LCFS Data Show Slowing Drawdown of Credit Bank

November 1, 2019 On October 31st, CARB posted the second quarter of 2019 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on November 14th. The second quarter data show...
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CORSIA – How are we going to police international aviation emissions?

October 24, 2019 11:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on CORSIA – How are we going to police international aviation emissions?

October 24, 2019 By Megan Boutwell As we explained in our CORSIA 101 article a few months back, the goal of CORSIA – the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation – is to cap carbon emissions from international aviation at 2020 levels. In many ways, this United Nations...
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The Ultimate E-Ticket: California Gasoline Prices*

October 22, 2019 11:34 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on The Ultimate E-Ticket: California Gasoline Prices*

October 22, 2019 By Dave Hackett On Monday, October 21, my friends at the California Energy Commission (CEC) released “Additional Analysis on Gasoline Prices in California.” This report is a follow-on to a May 2019 report that had been requested by Governor Gavin Newsom. Both reports examine why California gasoline prices are higher than the...
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How Accurate are VMT Estimates?

October 5, 2019 11:48 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How Accurate are VMT Estimates?

October 15, 2019 By Gary Yowell Estimating vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has important implications for analyzing and forecasting transportation fuel use and carbon dioxide CO2 emissions. VMT estimates are frequently used as the foundation for transportation fuel use analyses and forecasts. This practice should be carefully examined, especially given the four widely varying VMT estimates...
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Where were you when Saudi Aramco was attacked?

September 26, 2019 10:29 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Where were you when Saudi Aramco was attacked?

September 25, 2019 by Simoon Cannon The recent bombing of the Saudi Arabian Abqaiq gas-oil separation processing plant on September 14th sparked a frenzy of conversations among oil and gas professionals. Wall Street wanted to know how this geopolitical event would affect the price of crude oil, whether it would become a macroeconomic nightmare for...
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Why Aren’t Refiners Recovering Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs?

September 20, 2019 10:05 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Why Aren’t Refiners Recovering Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs?

September 20, 2019 by Jeff Kennedy “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” I’m sitting here on a Friday afternoon, contemplating just how true that old adage is. More than 25 years ago, before Stillwater was launched and before the ExxonMobil merger, I was with Mobil West Coast Supply in Long Beach...
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2019 West Coast Harbor Safety Committee Summit Presentation on IMO 2020

September 19, 2019 12:19 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on 2019 West Coast Harbor Safety Committee Summit Presentation on IMO 2020

On September 19th, Stillwater Senior Associate Ralph Grimmer presented at the 2019 West Coast Harbor Safety Committee Summit on the Queen Mary off the coast of Long Beach. The summit was sponsored by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response (OSPR) and the Pacific States/British Columbia Oil Spill Task...
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Clean Marine Fuel in 2020: An Opportunity for Biofuel?

September 1, 2019 12:46 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Clean Marine Fuel in 2020: An Opportunity for Biofuel?

September 1, 2019 by Mike Newman of Parhelion Underwriting  2018 saw the shipping industry take its first steps towards addressing the challenge of climate change when, at its 72nd session in April, IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) adopted an initial strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping by at least 50% by...
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How Do ZEV Emissions Stack Up Against Super-Clean Gasoline and Diesel Engines?

August 21, 2019 2:58 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on How Do ZEV Emissions Stack Up Against Super-Clean Gasoline and Diesel Engines?

August 21, 2019 by Gary Yowell In 1990, California adopted the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate designed to help achieve the state’s long-term emissions reduction goals by requiring manufacturers to sell specific quantities of battery-electric, fuel cell, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The ZEV mandate has seen several modifications over the past three decades, and...
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Parhelion’s new LCFS Insurance

August 1, 2019 1:45 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Parhelion’s new LCFS Insurance

Several years ago, Parhelion introduced the Platinum Carbon Credit invalidation™ insurance product to the California Cap & Trade market and followed up with the Platinum RINs invalidation™ insurance policy for the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) earlier this year. They have now entered another environmental commodity market – California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). We,...
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IMO 2020: Current Futures Prices and Refiner Processing Options

June 26, 2019 9:58 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on IMO 2020: Current Futures Prices and Refiner Processing Options

June 27, 2019 By Ralph Grimmer IMO 2020 implementation is six months away, and shipowners will likely start purchasing IMO 2020-compliant marine fuel (for vessels without onboard scrubbers) in the next three months. Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020 over the past two years. In this month’s...
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California Gasoline Prices – Part 2

June 26, 2019 7:28 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on California Gasoline Prices – Part 2

June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) colleague, Professor Severin Borenstein, the retail gasoline prices in this state are higher than the U.S. average, even after deducting...
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Knee-High by the Fourth of July?

June 22, 2019 9:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on Knee-High by the Fourth of July?

June 22, 2019 By Adam Schubert Rising gasoline prices are making headlines, and though there are many forces at work, one of those contributing factors isn’t receiving the same buzz as others. Corn farmers are facing incredible challenges this year, creating upward pressure on ethanol prices which in-turn increase the prices of the final, blended...
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A Look at Oregon’s First Credit Clearance Market

June 20, 2019 9:34 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on A Look at Oregon’s First Credit Clearance Market

June 20, 2019 By Jim Mladenik On May 31st, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) issued a statement explaining the need for a Credit Clearance Market (CCM) to enable deficit holders in the Clean Fuels Program (CFP) to balance their accounts for the 2018 calendar year. Six entities (ARS Fresno, Conrad & Bischoff, Costco,...
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California Gasoline Prices

May 28, 2019 1:33 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on California Gasoline Prices

May 28, 2019 By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the upside, this issue always gets the attention of consumers and politicians. Our first engagement to look at this subject...
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U.S. Refiners Supply Domestic Demand While Significantly Increasing Exports

May 20, 2019 1:13 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off on U.S. Refiners Supply Domestic Demand While Significantly Increasing Exports

By Megan Boutwell We first created the graphic below, illustrating the flow of petroleum products in and out of the U.S. by PADD for the year, for a talk at a conference a few years ago. One of our friends who attended that conference asked for an update, so today we’re offering just that! As...
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