Author Archives for Kendra Seymour

Flash Report: Oh, What a Month! What does COVID-19 mean for the LCFS Credit Bank and Prices?

March 23, 2020 12:45 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 20, 2020 A month ago, WTI crude oil price closed at $52.10 per barrel, the Dow Jones closed at 29,232 and the S&P at 3,370. Yesterday, these values were $25.22, 20,087 and 2,409 respectively. Clearly, the past month has been unprecedented for both the crude oil and financial markets. Socially, almost everyone in the...
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Stationary Source Cap & Trade Benchmark Cost is Way Down due to Increased Allowances

March 11, 2020 9:29 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

Stillwater publishes our proprietary daily benchmark price to demonstrate the cost of California’s Stationary Source Cap & Trade (SSC&T) program to refiners. Our readers may have observed that the benchmark SSC&T cost has recently dropped significantly, which begs the question: Why? On December 6, 2019, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released its 2020 Cap...
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COVID-19’s Economic Impacts on the LNG Market

March 11, 2020 8:50 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 11, 2020 By John Wolff Worldwide natural gas markets are unsettled by the current and plausible impacts of the COVID-19 virus. There has been a widely reported reduction in Chinese crude oil and products demand as auto travel, commercial deliveries, and airline flights have been reduced. The likely duration of the economic impacts is...
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How the New Coronavirus and Crude Price War Could Dampen the RINs Markets and Boost the LCFS Credit Bank

March 10, 2020 2:11 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 10, 2020 By Leigh Noda The last week of February marked the biggest drop in the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. The S&P index was down 11.5% on the week ending February 28th. The Dow Jones was down 12.4% over the same week. This compares to the week ending October 10,...
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Just Taking Off

March 6, 2020 12:40 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On March 3, 2020, Stillwater’s VP of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented at the Aviation Noise & Emissions Symposium in San Diego. The summit was hosted by the UC Davis Air Quality Research Center. Megan spoke about Sustainable Aviation Fuel goals and trends. To view a PDF version of Megan’s slide deck, click here.

Food for Thought: Overly Aggressive NOx Reduction Has Delayed California’s Ozone Attainment by 15 Years

February 12, 2020 2:55 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 12, 2020 By Gary Yowell The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has a long and proud history of ambitious reductions to air pollution which CARB deems necessary to meet ambient air quality standards. Continuing this 50-year trend, CARB is considering reducing its heavy-duty vehicles’ nitrogen oxides (NOx) standard by 90%. This new NOx standard[1]...
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IMO 2020: No Large Speed Bump Thus Far

February 11, 2020 1:47 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 11, 2020 By Ralph Grimmer Over the past three years, Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020. The long-awaited IMO 2020 regulations were implemented on January 1, 2020 – 40 days ago. In this article, we will provide our takeaways on how the initial rollout has gone,...
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Airlines want Renewable Jet Fuel, but Renewable Diesel is Stealing their Thunder

February 6, 2020 1:26 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 6, 2020 By Jim Mladenik Alternate jet fuel (AJF, also known as bio-jet or renewable jet fuel) has made the news lately as it is now included as an opt-in fuel under California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and many airlines are clamoring to reduce their carbon footprints and paint themselves as more climate-friendly....
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Flash Report: 3Q2019 LCFS Data Show a Continued Slowing Trend in Net Deficits

February 3, 2020 1:25 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 3, 2020 On January 31st, 2020 CARB posted the third quarter of 2019 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the third-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on February 14th. The third-quarter data...
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95 RON Gasoline and the Political CAFE Ping-Pong Game

January 15, 2020 2:41 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

January 15, 2020 By Ron Pike In an effort to further reduce hydrocarbon consumption in the U.S., 95 RON (Research Octane Number) gasoline has been suggested as a way to help achieve proposed higher corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements. A higher RON allows an internal combustion engine to run at a higher compression ratio,...
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California Gasoline Retail Margin Quick to Rise, Slow to Drop

January 10, 2020 10:52 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

January 10, 2020 By Kendra Seymour In the course of our work, and due to our own curiosity, Stillwater tracks the California gasoline market. We thought our findings might be interesting to our readers as well! In our latest review of the data, we see that the strength of the retail margin (retail less taxes...
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An Updated Guide to EPA’s Tier 3 Gasoline Sulfur Standards

January 5, 2020 10:59 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

January 5, 2020 by Mike Leister and E.J. Ledet Effective January 1, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring all U.S. gasoline to meet an annual 10 parts per million (ppm) average sulfur requirement as part of its new Tier 3 vehicle and fuel regulations. (Stillwater wrote a quick guide to Tier 3...
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Sustainable Aviation Fuel – the key to CORSIA compliance

November 21, 2019 9:35 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

November 21, 2019 By Megan Boutwell Last month we looked at how CORSIA, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation, is being implemented. The rule is currently in the baseline development phase and won’t be mandatory for international flights until 2027. This international rule is one pillar in...
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2Q2019 LCFS Data – Insights into the Future of Clean Fuels Programs

November 15, 2019 9:40 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

November 15, 2019 By Leigh Noda On October 31st, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the data reported by fuel-reporting Entities into the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Reporting Tool (LRT) through the second quarter of 2019. Stillwater has analyzed the data and included our analysis in our Second Quarter 2019 LCFS Newsletter (subscription...
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Flash Report: 2Q2019 LCFS Data Show Slowing Drawdown of Credit Bank

November 4, 2019 3:35 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

November 1, 2019 On October 31st, CARB posted the second quarter of 2019 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on November 14th. The second quarter data show...
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CORSIA – How are we going to police international aviation emissions?

October 24, 2019 11:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

October 24, 2019 By Megan Boutwell As we explained in our CORSIA 101 article a few months back, the goal of CORSIA – the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation – is to cap carbon emissions from international aviation at 2020 levels. In many ways, this United Nations...
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The Ultimate E-Ticket: California Gasoline Prices*

October 22, 2019 11:34 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

October 22, 2019 By Dave Hackett On Monday, October 21, my friends at the California Energy Commission (CEC) released “Additional Analysis on Gasoline Prices in California.” This report is a follow-on to a May 2019 report that had been requested by Governor Gavin Newsom. Both reports examine why California gasoline prices are higher than the...
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How Accurate are VMT Estimates?

October 5, 2019 11:48 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

October 15, 2019 By Gary Yowell Estimating vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has important implications for analyzing and forecasting transportation fuel use and carbon dioxide CO2 emissions. VMT estimates are frequently used as the foundation for transportation fuel use analyses and forecasts. This practice should be carefully examined, especially given the four widely varying VMT estimates...
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Where were you when Saudi Aramco was attacked?

September 26, 2019 10:29 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 25, 2019 by Simoon Cannon The recent bombing of the Saudi Arabian Abqaiq gas-oil separation processing plant on September 14th sparked a frenzy of conversations among oil and gas professionals. Wall Street wanted to know how this geopolitical event would affect the price of crude oil, whether it would become a macroeconomic nightmare for...
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Why Aren’t Refiners Recovering Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs?

September 20, 2019 10:05 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 20, 2019 by Jeff Kennedy “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” I’m sitting here on a Friday afternoon, contemplating just how true that old adage is. More than 25 years ago, before Stillwater was launched and before the ExxonMobil merger, I was with Mobil West Coast Supply in Long Beach...
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2019 West Coast Harbor Safety Committee Summit Presentation on IMO 2020

September 19, 2019 12:19 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On September 19th, Stillwater Senior Associate Ralph Grimmer presented at the 2019 West Coast Harbor Safety Committee Summit on the Queen Mary off the coast of Long Beach. The summit was sponsored by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response (OSPR) and the Pacific States/British Columbia Oil Spill Task...
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Clean Marine Fuel in 2020: An Opportunity for Biofuel?

September 1, 2019 12:46 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 1, 2019 by Mike Newman of Parhelion Underwriting 2018 saw the shipping industry take its first steps towards addressing the challenge of climate change when, at its 72nd session in April, IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) adopted an initial strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping by at least 50% by...
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How Do ZEV Emissions Stack Up Against Super-Clean Gasoline and Diesel Engines?

August 21, 2019 2:58 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

August 21, 2019 by Gary Yowell In 1990, California adopted the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate designed to help achieve the state’s long-term emissions reduction goals by requiring manufacturers to sell specific quantities of battery-electric, fuel cell, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The ZEV mandate has seen several modifications over the past three decades, and...
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Parhelion’s new LCFS Insurance

August 1, 2019 1:45 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

Several years ago, Parhelion introduced the Platinum Carbon Credit invalidation™ insurance product to the California Cap & Trade market and followed up with the Platinum RINs invalidation™ insurance policy for the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) earlier this year. They have now entered another environmental commodity market – California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). We,...
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IMO 2020: Current Futures Prices and Refiner Processing Options

June 26, 2019 9:58 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

June 27, 2019 By Ralph Grimmer IMO 2020 implementation is six months away, and shipowners will likely start purchasing IMO 2020-compliant marine fuel (for vessels without onboard scrubbers) in the next three months. Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020 over the past two years. In this month’s...
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California Gasoline Prices – Part 2

June 26, 2019 7:28 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) colleague, Professor Severin Borenstein, the retail gasoline prices in this state are higher than the U.S. average, even after deducting...
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Knee-High by the Fourth of July?

June 22, 2019 9:41 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

June 22, 2019 By Adam Schubert Rising gasoline prices are making headlines, and though there are many forces at work, one of those contributing factors isn’t receiving the same buzz as others. Corn farmers are facing incredible challenges this year, creating upward pressure on ethanol prices which in-turn increase the prices of the final, blended...
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A Look at Oregon’s First Credit Clearance Market

June 20, 2019 9:34 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

June 20, 2019 By Jim Mladenik On May 31st, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) issued a statement explaining the need for a Credit Clearance Market (CCM) to enable deficit holders in the Clean Fuels Program (CFP) to balance their accounts for the 2018 calendar year. Six entities (ARS Fresno, Conrad & Bischoff, Costco,...
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California Gasoline Prices

May 28, 2019 1:33 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

May 28, 2019 By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the upside, this issue always gets the attention of consumers and politicians. Our first engagement to look at this subject...
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U.S. Refiners Supply Domestic Demand While Significantly Increasing Exports

May 20, 2019 1:13 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

By Megan Boutwell We first created the graphic below, illustrating the flow of petroleum products in and out of the U.S. by PADD for the year, for a talk at a conference a few years ago. One of our friends who attended that conference asked for an update, so today we’re offering just that! As...
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LCFS Credit and Price Trends

April 25, 2019 2:26 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On April 24, 2019, Stillwater’s VP of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented Stillwater’s analysis of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit and price trends at the North American Carbon World (NACW) Conference in Los Angeles. You can view a PDF of Megan’s presentation here. Want LCFS news, data, and exclusive expert analysis delivered to your...
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Breaking down California’s gasoline price spike

April 17, 2019 9:07 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

April 17, 2019 By Kendra Seymour California’s gasoline prices consistently outpace average pump prices across the U.S., but in the past month, Californians have experienced an average price increase of roughly 60 cents per gallon, spiking the Golden State’s fuel prices even higher than usual, as you can see in the chart from GasBuddy, below....
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California’s Fossil Fuel “Sin Tax”

April 16, 2019 4:01 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

April 16, 2019 By John Faulstich With the recent increase in gasoline prices in California (the retail gas price average just bumped up over $4 per gallon) and renewed interest in this subject, we thought it timely to present an overview of the major components of what goes into the price of gasoline at the...
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How the Midwest bomb cyclone could impact gasoline prices throughout the U.S.

April 8, 2019 1:51 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

April 8, 2019 By Barry Schaps Whoever heard of a bomb cyclone weather event? In case you haven’t, here’s the rundown: A bomb cyclone is the rapid development of a “cyclonic low-pressure area” which occurs most frequently in marine environments in the winter months but can occur in continental settings and at other times of...
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IMO 2020: How Will the Marketplace Value New Compliant Marine Fuels?

March 20, 2019 11:12 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 20, 2019 By Jim Mladenik & Ralph Grimmer Over the past two years, Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020. Implementation of IMO 2020 is now less than ten months away. In this article, we will provide information on data sources providing visibility to spot and futures...
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California’s LCFS Solution Gets National Stage Time in Canada

March 15, 2019 3:19 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

Stillwater has written a lot about the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program over the years, and we even publish a one-of-a-kind LCFS Newsletter covering California’s program. We’ve also reported on Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP) from its inception in 2016. Now, we turn to Canada’s under-construction Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) which aims to...
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Sustainable Aviation Fuels Prepare for Takeoff in Washington State

March 13, 2019 11:33 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 13, 2019 By Kendra Seymour My colleagues Megan Boutwell, Jim Mladenik, and I attended the first-ever Washington Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Summit last week in Seattle. The summit was hosted by Earth Day Northwest 2020 and presented by Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and the Port of Seattle. Washington Governor and U.S. Presidential...
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Energy Outlook Shows Decline in Hydrocarbon Fuel Demand after 2030

March 1, 2019 2:48 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 1, 2019 By John Wolff Anthony Teo discussed DNV GL’s 2018 Energy Outlook during the Liquefied Gas Senior Executive Forum in Houston which was hosted by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) on December 4, 2018. DNV GL’s second annual independent energy modeling outlook extended the forecast to 2050, from a forecast to 2030 in...
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Stillwater Benchmark for Refinery Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs

February 21, 2019 11:02 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 26, 2020 0.129 cpg This benchmark represents the cost in cents per gallon of CARBOB gasoline and CARB diesel incurred by the refining sector under of the stationary source provision of California’s Cap and Trade program (Stationary Source Cap and Trade or SSC&T). Stillwater’s Benchmark for Refinery SSC&T Cost is calculated using the...
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CORSIA 101 – A Beginner’s Guide

February 20, 2019 12:11 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

What is CORSIA? CORSIA (the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) is a program administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) with a goal of capping CO2 (carbon) emissions from international aviation at 2020 levels. A future goal is to reduce net carbon emissions fifty percent by 2050 compared to 2005 levels....
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Water Management in the Downstream

February 20, 2019 11:43 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 20, 2019 by E.J. Ledet Water contamination incidents in the transportation fuels supply chain can have a dramatic effect on fuel quality. Fortunately, such incidents can be prevented with the implementation of proper water-management procedures. In this article, we identify the common water contamination issues along the downstream fuels supply chain and offer helpful...
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U.S. LNG Bunkering Implementation and Safety Practices

February 1, 2019 3:10 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 1, 2019 By John Wolff On December 4, 2018, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) hosted its 2018 Liquefied Gas Senior Executive Forum in Houston. The program was co-sponsored by the Society of International Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators (SIGGTO) and the Society of Gas as a Marine Fuel (SGMF). The forum’s speakers addressed many...
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Webinar: IMO 2020 and the Sulphur/Sulphuric Acid Markets

January 16, 2019 10:27 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

Acuity Commodities has partnered with Stillwater Associates to model three scenarios reflecting implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) marine fuel rule from January 1, 2020, when the maximum sulphur content in bunker fuel oil has to be reduced to 0.50%. With the IMO 2020 implementation deadline unlikely to be postponed and less than 12...
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My Carbon Beats your Carbon – Greenhouse Gas Reduction Technology Lifecycles

January 12, 2019 9:39 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

January 12, 2019 By Leigh Noda Humankind is unique in the animal kingdom in our ability to creatively utilize energy. Over the history of humankind, the primary source of energy we’ve used has changed from self to dung to wood to hydro to coal to petroleum, and now we are transitioning toward renewables and energy...
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LNG Bunkering in U.S. Ports: Change is Coming

December 23, 2018 6:51 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

By John Wolff, Senior Associate Image: KLAW LNG Liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be used as a fuel for ships (and trucks and buses) with specially designed fuel tanks. Currently, few U.S.- and foreign-flagged vessels are fueled with LNG, although that number may increase with the coming IMO 2020 regulation. U.S. officials have historically treated...
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A Look Ahead: The Long Term LCFS Credit Price

December 14, 2018 10:06 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On December 13, 2018, Stillwater Senior Associate Leigh Noda participated as a panelist at the OPIS LCFS & Carbon Markets Workshop in San Francisco. The panelists were asked to address: “What exactly will the long-term price of the LCFS credit look like? As the LCFS program heads into 2020 and beyond, what products will produce the...
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Moving Renewable Fuels to Market: U.S. Infrastructure

December 10, 2018 9:57 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On December 10, 2018, Dave Hackett provided a presentation on U.S. renewable fuels transportation infrastructure to a joint government and industry working group. This presentation explains how ethanol and biodiesel are moved from renewable fuels production centers to markets where they are blended with petroleum products for retail sale. You can view a PDF of...
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The Problem of Invalidated RINs in the Renewable Fuel Standard

November 14, 2018 10:07 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

November 14, 2018 by Mike Newman of Parhelion Underwriting Under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed a “buyer beware” approach to the purchase and sale of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). This creates a liability for any buyer of RINs, making them responsible for purchases of invalid RINS, even if done...
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West Coast Crude Oil Supply

November 1, 2018 1:20 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

November 1, 2018 by David Hackett Last month, our friends at RBN Energy held a conference in Houston (of course) to bring together people interested in the development of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin in West Texas. Figure 1. Crude-Producing Regions in the United States Source: U.S. Energy...
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Has California Gasoline Demand Peaked?

October 17, 2018 2:56 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

October 17, 2018 by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage...
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California Carbon Info: Future Supply and Demand of California Carbon Offsets

October 17, 2018 12:35 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. As such, we periodically feature guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service...
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War Story: “Go figure it out”

October 15, 2018 11:03 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

by Brian Conroy When Stillwater Associate Brian Conroy worked for BP in 2006 as Global Sales and Market Development Manager of Specialty Chemicals, he was offered an opportunity to try something new. With a background in chemicals, beginning in research and progressing to various roles in business, he was ready for the change. BP’s CEO...
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War Story: California’s Lengthy Multi-Media Evaluation Process

September 12, 2018 11:34 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 12, 2018 By Jessica Loomis Twenty years ago, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) was a common additive used to oxygenate and raise the octane number in gasoline, but when incidents of MTBE leaking occurred from underground storage tanks at gas stations in California, groundwater contamination became a growing issue. MTBE isn’t particularly toxic, but its...
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Agile Mergers & Acquisitions Advisory Services

September 10, 2018 4:30 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 10, 2018 By Vaughn Hulleman Agile is a project management method whose principles include placing customer satisfaction as the highest priority and delivering products or services frequently. This approach is used mostly in software development, but can advisory services for Mergers and Acquisitions be Agile? The Agile project management approach includes breaking the overall...
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California Cap and Trade 101

September 7, 2018 11:17 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 7, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Following the publication of our LCFS 101: Beginner’s Guide and LCFS 101: Update, we have received requests for a similar overview of California’s Cap and Trade (C&T) Program. To that end, here we cover what C&T is, how it works, and how it’s performing so far....
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The Renewable Fuel Standard – Part 3: Where to from here?

September 1, 2018 4:24 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

September 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy This is the third and final segment in a series of articles on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In part one, we discussed the context around the passage of RFS. Part two covered the program’s primary goals and the progress to-date toward each goal. Today we conclude our series by looking down the road to discuss a...
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California Stationary Source Cap and Trade Benchmark

August 8, 2018 11:01 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

August 8, 2018, updated February 28, 2019 BACKGROUND California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) put in place a series of policies and programs across all major sectors with the goal of returning California emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is tasked with developing regulations and market...
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The Renewable Fuel Standard – Part 2: Performance Over Time

August 7, 2018 10:26 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

August 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy In Part 1 of this series, we discussed the background and drivers for the implementation of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In Part 2, we will look at how RFS has performed against each of its three primary goals: Increase energy security Provide a mechanism for higher demand...
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Projecting the Costs of California’s Cap & Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard Programs

July 25, 2018 10:31 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make informed decisions. To that end, Stillwater’s carbon policy team recently conducted an analysis of the potential impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Carbon...
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Expected Pricing and Economic Impacts of the IMO 2020 Rule

July 10, 2018 5:28 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

July 11, 2018 by Ralph Grimmer The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will make a significant change to the maximum allowed sulfur content of marine fuel consumed on open oceans beginning January 1, 2020. This global change (via IMO revision of its MARPOL VI rule) was triggered by an IMO decision in 2008. Over the past...
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Bio-Isobutanol – Overview and Challenges

July 8, 2018 4:41 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

July 8, 2018 by Adam Schubert On June 12th, 2018 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it had granted to Butamax Advanced Biofuels, LLC (Butamax) registration of blends of up to 16 volume percent (vol%) isobutanol in gasoline. Prior to granting this registration, EPA took the unusual step of seeking public comment due to, as EPA put it, the significant possibility that such isobutanol-gasoline blends had the potential for widespread use. ...
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The Renewable Fuel Standard – Part 1: A Retrospective Look

July 1, 2018 4:22 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

July 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy This is the first in a three-part series looking back at the renewable fuel standard (RFS) to reflect on the context in which it was created, what it was intended to do, how it has performed relative to the current context more than ten years later, and how the...
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LCFS Successes and Challenges

June 20, 2018 3:36 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On June 19, 2018, Stillwater’s President, Dave Hackett, participated as a panel member in an informational hearing on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) held by the California State Assembly’s Select Committee on California’s Energy Future. The panel included an overview of the LCFS offered by the Legislative Analyst’s Office followed by comments from regulated...
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Bubble Map Update: Trapped in the Permian!

June 7, 2018 10:22 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed how restricted pipeline capacity had led to big Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts. Now, four months later, the bubble map tells the same story of crude oil production outpacing logistics – only this time in West Texas. On...
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IMO 2020 & Crude Slate Pricing: Choose Your Own Adventure

June 5, 2018 2:55 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

June 5, 2018 by Kendra Seymour Contributors: James Ahrens, John Faulstich, Ralph Grimmer, Jim Mladenik, and Arshad Sheikh Let’s go back in time, to the late 1970s when sulfur regulations for fuel oil were less stringent and heavy San Joaquin Valley (SJV) crude was priced extremely low. This SJV was often minimally processed then dumped...
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California Carbon Info: Regulatory Round-up – Informal Workshop on Potential Amendments to Cap-and-Trade Regulation

May 15, 2018 11:59 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

LCFS 101 – An Update

May 2, 2018 2:53 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

May 2, 2018 by Megan Boutwell A lot has happened since we wrote our first LCFS 101 article last year. Here we provide an update on the rules and the status of the credit market. What is the LCFS California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard is one of a group of programs designed to reduce greenhouse...
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The Trans Mountain Tangle

May 2, 2018 10:28 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

May 2, 2018 by Stillwater Staff There’s a battle brewing between two provinces in Canada over a pipeline, and it may cause transportation fuels prices to spike at least in the short-term. Here we offer the backstory to get you up-to-date. In 2013, Kinder Morgan filed an application with the Canadian National Energy Board to...
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Stillwater Celebrates 20 Years

May 1, 2018 1:30 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

May 1, 2018 by Jessica Loomis During the week of April 16th, Stillwater Associates met in beautiful Laguna Beach, California for our Annual Meeting. Associates came from all over the country to get caught up on the state of the business, share ideas, and get re-acquainted. This year was particularly special because Stillwater Associates is...
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FLASH BULLETIN: CARB Releases Fourth Quarter 2017 LCFS Data

April 25, 2018 7:15 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

April 25, 2018 This afternoon, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program data through the fourth quarter of 2017. The data shows a total of 9.912 million metric tonnes (MT) of credits for 2017 and 10.012 million MT in deficits, resulting in a 102,000 MT deficit for the...
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IMO 2020: A Sea Change is Coming

April 25, 2018 7:30 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On April 24, 2018, at The Sulphur Institute’s Sulphur World Symposium in Philadelphia, Stillwater Senior Associate Ralph Grimmer presented comments on IMO 2020 – the International Maritime Organization’s mandated reduction in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) from 3.5% to 0.5% on January 1, 2020. Ralph’s presentation offers an IMO 2020 overview, a...
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Carbon Capture and Utilization for Enhanced Oil Recovery

March 28, 2018 10:37 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 28, 2018 By Dave Hackett Buzz-word phrases like Carbon Capture and Storage, its sister concept Carbon Capture and Utilization, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and “Clean Coal” have been gaining air time in conversations among oil industry experts and policymakers. Stillwater has done work in the CCU space. In fact, Stillwater Energy Group – a subsidiary...
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Impact of Fuels Regulations on Bio-Processors

March 21, 2018 9:38 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

On March 20, 2018, Stillwater’s president Dave Hackett presented comments on the impact of fuels regulations on bio-processors at the Bio-Processing Leadership Summit in Sonoma, California. You can view a PDF of Dave’s presentation here.

War Stories: A Case for Due Diligence

March 20, 2018 9:03 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 20, 2018 By Jessica Loomis In 1997, Stillwater Senior Associate Jeff Kennedy found himself living in California after several decades of moving around the country working for Mobil Oil. Following a much-needed break, Jeff met a convincing “self-styled serial entrepreneur” who we will call “Mr. X.” At the time, Mr. X was consulting with...
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Upcoming Changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard and Potential Impacts

March 13, 2018 1:00 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

March 13, 2018 At the 2018 AFPM Annual Meeting, Stillwater Associate Mike Leister offered a presentation analyzing the changes that EPA is making to the RFS in 2018. He examined the reasons for these changes and their likely impact on renewable biofuels and the various RIN markets. Mike also discussed the projected status of the RIN banks at the end...
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FLASH ANALYSIS: CARB’s Latest LCFS Rulemaking – Are the goalposts moving?

February 22, 2018 8:46 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 22, 2018 On February 20th, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released Unofficial LCFS Rulemaking Documents for public review. These proposed amendments will be considered at a CARB Board hearing in April 2018 and voted on at a second hearing in mid-to-late 2018. In the past, CARB has released draft rulemaking documentation before public...
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IMO 2020 Part 5: Enforcement

February 15, 2018 9:06 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 15, 2018 By Ralph Grimmer The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is moving forward with a marked reduction in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) from 3.5% to 0.5% on January 1, 2020. In the first four articles of our series on this “IMO 2020 Rule,” Stillwater provided an overview of...
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Bubble Map Update: Restricted Pipeline Capacity Leads to Big WCS discounts

February 13, 2018 7:21 am Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

* Reflects anecdotal prices not posted prices The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed evidence of the lingering effects of recovery from Hurricane Harvey. Now, five months after that storm, the bubble map tells a different story. On February 13th, spot WTI was quoted...
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California Carbon Info: Analysis of CCO usage for 2016 compliance obligation

February 10, 2018 3:25 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

The Cost of Premium

February 9, 2018 2:46 pm Published by Kendra Seymour Comments Off

February 9, 2018 By David Hackett Stillwater Associates is often retained to analyze markets. Currently, we have a project for the Fuels Institute to look at the demand for higher octane gasoline in the future. This analysis is driven by the growing demand for higher octane gasolines that cars increasingly need to maximize the performance...
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