Several years ago, Parhelion introduced the Platinum Carbon Credit invalidation™ insurance product to the California Cap & Trade market and followed up with the Platinum RINs invalidation™ insurance policy for the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) earlier this year. They have now entered another environmental commodity market – California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). We,...
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June 27, 2019 By Ralph Grimmer IMO 2020 implementation is six months away, and shipowners will likely start purchasing IMO 2020-compliant marine fuel (for vessels without onboard scrubbers) in the next three months. Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020 over the past two years. In this month’s...
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June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) colleague, Professor Severin Borenstein, the retail gasoline prices in this state are higher than the U.S. average, even after deducting...
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June 22, 2019 By Adam Schubert Rising gasoline prices are making headlines, and though there are many forces at work, one of those contributing factors isn’t receiving the same buzz as others. Corn farmers are facing incredible challenges this year, creating upward pressure on ethanol prices which in-turn increase the prices of the final, blended...
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June 20, 2019 By Jim Mladenik On May 31st, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) issued a statement explaining the need for a Credit Clearance Market (CCM) to enable deficit holders in the Clean Fuels Program (CFP) to balance their accounts for the 2018 calendar year. Six entities (ARS Fresno, Conrad & Bischoff, Costco,...
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May 28, 2019 By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the upside, this issue always gets the attention of consumers and politicians. Our first engagement to look at this subject...
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By Megan Boutwell We first created the graphic below, illustrating the flow of petroleum products in and out of the U.S. by PADD for the year, for a talk at a conference a few years ago. One of our friends who attended that conference asked for an update, so today we’re offering just that! As...
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On April 24, 2019, Stillwater’s VP of Operations, Megan Boutwell, presented Stillwater’s analysis of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit and price trends at the North American Carbon World (NACW) Conference in Los Angeles. You can view a PDF of Megan’s presentation here. Want LCFS news, data, and exclusive expert analysis delivered to your...
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April 17, 2019 By Kendra Seymour California’s gasoline prices consistently outpace average pump prices across the U.S., but in the past month, Californians have experienced an average price increase of roughly 60 cents per gallon, spiking the Golden State’s fuel prices even higher than usual, as you can see in the chart from GasBuddy, below....
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April 16, 2019 By John Faulstich With the recent increase in gasoline prices in California (the retail gas price average just bumped up over $4 per gallon) and renewed interest in this subject, we thought it timely to present an overview of the major components of what goes into the price of gasoline at the...
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April 8, 2019 By Barry Schaps Whoever heard of a bomb cyclone weather event? In case you haven’t, here’s the rundown: A bomb cyclone is the rapid development of a “cyclonic low-pressure area” which occurs most frequently in marine environments in the winter months but can occur in continental settings and at other times of...
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March 20, 2019 By Jim Mladenik & Ralph Grimmer Over the past two years, Stillwater Associates has offered a series of articles on various aspects of IMO 2020. Implementation of IMO 2020 is now less than ten months away. In this article, we will provide information on data sources providing visibility to spot and futures...
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Stillwater has written a lot about the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program over the years, and we even publish a one-of-a-kind LCFS Newsletter covering California’s program. We’ve also reported on Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP) from its inception in 2016. Now, we turn to Canada’s under-construction Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) which aims to...
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March 13, 2019 By Kendra Seymour My colleagues Megan Boutwell, Jim Mladenik, and I attended the first-ever Washington Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Summit last week in Seattle. The summit was hosted by Earth Day Northwest 2020 and presented by Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and the Port of Seattle. Washington Governor and U.S. Presidential...
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March 1, 2019 By John Wolff Anthony Teo discussed DNV GL’s 2018 Energy Outlook during the Liquefied Gas Senior Executive Forum in Houston which was hosted by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) on December 4, 2018. DNV GL’s second annual independent energy modeling outlook extended the forecast to 2050, from a forecast to 2030 in...
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What is CORSIA? CORSIA (the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) is a program administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) with a goal of capping CO2 (carbon) emissions from international aviation at 2020 levels. A future goal is to reduce net carbon emissions fifty percent by 2050 compared to 2005 levels....
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February 20, 2019 by E.J. Ledet Water contamination incidents in the transportation fuels supply chain can have a dramatic effect on fuel quality. Fortunately, such incidents can be prevented with the implementation of proper water-management procedures. In this article, we identify the common water contamination issues along the downstream fuels supply chain and offer helpful...
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February 1, 2019 By John Wolff On December 4, 2018, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) hosted its 2018 Liquefied Gas Senior Executive Forum in Houston. The program was co-sponsored by the Society of International Gas Tanker and Terminal Operators (SIGGTO) and the Society of Gas as a Marine Fuel (SGMF). The forum’s speakers addressed many...
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Acuity Commodities has partnered with Stillwater Associates to model three scenarios reflecting implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) marine fuel rule from January 1, 2020, when the maximum sulphur content in bunker fuel oil has to be reduced to 0.50%. With the IMO 2020 implementation deadline unlikely to be postponed and less than 12...
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January 12, 2019 By Leigh Noda Humankind is unique in the animal kingdom in our ability to creatively utilize energy. Over the history of humankind, the primary source of energy we’ve used has changed from self to dung to wood to hydro to coal to petroleum, and now we are transitioning toward renewables and energy...
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By John Wolff, Senior Associate Image: KLAW LNG Liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be used as a fuel for ships (and trucks and buses) with specially designed fuel tanks. Currently, few U.S.- and foreign-flagged vessels are fueled with LNG, although that number may increase with the coming IMO 2020 regulation. U.S. officials have historically treated...
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On December 13, 2018, Stillwater Senior Associate Leigh Noda participated as a panelist at the OPIS LCFS & Carbon Markets Workshop in San Francisco. The panelists were asked to address: “What exactly will the long-term price of the LCFS credit look like? As the LCFS program heads into 2020 and beyond, what products will produce the...
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On December 10, 2018, Dave Hackett provided a presentation on U.S. renewable fuels transportation infrastructure to a joint government and industry working group. This presentation explains how ethanol and biodiesel are moved from renewable fuels production centers to markets where they are blended with petroleum products for retail sale. You can view a PDF of...
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November 14, 2018 by Mike Newman of Parhelion Underwriting Under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) imposed a “buyer beware” approach to the purchase and sale of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). This creates a liability for any buyer of RINs, making them responsible for purchases of invalid RINS, even if done...
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November 1, 2018 by David Hackett Last month, our friends at RBN Energy held a conference in Houston (of course) to bring together people interested in the development of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids from the Permian Basin in West Texas. Figure 1. Crude-Producing Regions in the United States Source: U.S. Energy...
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October 17, 2018 by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage...
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As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. As such, we periodically feature guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service...
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by Brian Conroy When Stillwater Associate Brian Conroy worked for BP in 2006 as Global Sales and Market Development Manager of Specialty Chemicals, he was offered an opportunity to try something new. With a background in chemicals, beginning in research and progressing to various roles in business, he was ready for the change. BP’s CEO...
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September 12, 2018 By Jessica Loomis Twenty years ago, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) was a common additive used to oxygenate and raise the octane number in gasoline, but when incidents of MTBE leaking occurred from underground storage tanks at gas stations in California, groundwater contamination became a growing issue. MTBE isn’t particularly toxic, but its...
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September 10, 2018 By Vaughn Hulleman Agile is a project management method whose principles include placing customer satisfaction as the highest priority and delivering products or services frequently. This approach is used mostly in software development, but can advisory services for Mergers and Acquisitions be Agile? The Agile project management approach includes breaking the overall...
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September 7, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Following the publication of our LCFS 101: Beginner’s Guide and LCFS 101: Update, we have received requests for a similar overview of California’s Cap and Trade (C&T) Program. To that end, here we cover what C&T is, how it works, and how it’s performing so far....
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September 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy This is the third and final segment in a series of articles on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In part one, we discussed the context around the passage of RFS. Part two covered the program’s primary goals and the progress to-date toward each goal. Today we conclude our series by looking down the road to discuss a...
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August 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy In Part 1 of this series, we discussed the background and drivers for the implementation of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In Part 2, we will look at how RFS has performed against each of its three primary goals: Increase energy security Provide a mechanism for higher demand...
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July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make informed decisions. To that end, Stillwater’s carbon policy team recently conducted an analysis of the potential impact of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Carbon...
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July 11, 2018 by Ralph Grimmer The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will make a significant change to the maximum allowed sulfur content of marine fuel consumed on open oceans beginning January 1, 2020. This global change (via IMO revision of its MARPOL VI rule) was triggered by an IMO decision in 2008. Over the past...
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July 8, 2018 by Adam Schubert On June 12th, 2018 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it had granted to Butamax Advanced Biofuels, LLC (Butamax) registration of blends of up to 16 volume percent (vol%) isobutanol in gasoline. Prior to granting this registration, EPA took the unusual step of seeking public comment due to, as EPA put it, the significant possibility that such isobutanol-gasoline blends had the potential for widespread use. ...
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July 1, 2018 by Brian Conroy This is the first in a three-part series looking back at the renewable fuel standard (RFS) to reflect on the context in which it was created, what it was intended to do, how it has performed relative to the current context more than ten years later, and how the...
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On June 19, 2018, Stillwater’s President, Dave Hackett, participated as a panel member in an informational hearing on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) held by the California State Assembly’s Select Committee on California’s Energy Future. The panel included an overview of the LCFS offered by the Legislative Analyst’s Office followed by comments from regulated...
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The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed how restricted pipeline capacity had led to big Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts. Now, four months later, the bubble map tells the same story of crude oil production outpacing logistics – only this time in West Texas. On...
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June 5, 2018 by Kendra Seymour Contributors: James Ahrens, John Faulstich, Ralph Grimmer, Jim Mladenik, and Arshad Sheikh Let’s go back in time, to the late 1970s when sulfur regulations for fuel oil were less stringent and heavy San Joaquin Valley (SJV) crude was priced extremely low. This SJV was often minimally processed then dumped...
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As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. As such, we periodically feature guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service...
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May 2, 2018 by Megan Boutwell A lot has happened since we wrote our first LCFS 101 article last year. Here we provide an update on the rules and the status of the credit market. What is the LCFS California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard is one of a group of programs designed to reduce greenhouse...
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May 2, 2018 by Stillwater Staff There’s a battle brewing between two provinces in Canada over a pipeline, and it may cause transportation fuels prices to spike at least in the short-term. Here we offer the backstory to get you up-to-date. In 2013, Kinder Morgan filed an application with the Canadian National Energy Board to...
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May 1, 2018 by Jessica Loomis During the week of April 16th, Stillwater Associates met in beautiful Laguna Beach, California for our Annual Meeting. Associates came from all over the country to get caught up on the state of the business, share ideas, and get re-acquainted. This year was particularly special because Stillwater Associates is...
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April 25, 2018 This afternoon, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released its Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program data through the fourth quarter of 2017. The data shows a total of 9.912 million metric tonnes (MT) of credits for 2017 and 10.012 million MT in deficits, resulting in a 102,000 MT deficit for the...
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On April 24, 2018, at The Sulphur Institute’s Sulphur World Symposium in Philadelphia, Stillwater Senior Associate Ralph Grimmer presented comments on IMO 2020 – the International Maritime Organization’s mandated reduction in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) from 3.5% to 0.5% on January 1, 2020. Ralph’s presentation offers an IMO 2020 overview, a...
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March 28, 2018 By Dave Hackett Buzz-word phrases like Carbon Capture and Storage, its sister concept Carbon Capture and Utilization, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and “Clean Coal” have been gaining air time in conversations among oil industry experts and policymakers. Stillwater has done work in the CCU space. In fact, Stillwater Energy Group – a subsidiary...
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On March 20, 2018, Stillwater’s president Dave Hackett presented comments on the impact of fuels regulations on bio-processors at the Bio-Processing Leadership Summit in Sonoma, California. You can view a PDF of Dave’s presentation here.
March 20, 2018 By Jessica Loomis In 1997, Stillwater Senior Associate Jeff Kennedy found himself living in California after several decades of moving around the country working for Mobil Oil. Following a much-needed break, Jeff met a convincing “self-styled serial entrepreneur” who we will call “Mr. X.” At the time, Mr. X was consulting with...
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March 13, 2018 At the 2018 AFPM Annual Meeting, Stillwater Associate Mike Leister offered a presentation analyzing the changes that EPA is making to the RFS in 2018. He examined the reasons for these changes and their likely impact on renewable biofuels and the various RIN markets. Mike also discussed the projected status of the RIN banks at the end...
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February 22, 2018 On February 20th, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released Unofficial LCFS Rulemaking Documents for public review. These proposed amendments will be considered at a CARB Board hearing in April 2018 and voted on at a second hearing in mid-to-late 2018. In the past, CARB has released draft rulemaking documentation before public...
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February 15, 2018 By Ralph Grimmer The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is moving forward with a marked reduction in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) from 3.5% to 0.5% on January 1, 2020. In the first four articles of our series on this “IMO 2020 Rule,” Stillwater provided an overview of...
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* Reflects anecdotal prices not posted prices The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed evidence of the lingering effects of recovery from Hurricane Harvey. Now, five months after that storm, the bubble map tells a different story. On February 13th, spot WTI was quoted...
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As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. As such, we periodically feature guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service...
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February 9, 2018 By David Hackett Stillwater Associates is often retained to analyze markets. Currently, we have a project for the Fuels Institute to look at the demand for higher octane gasoline in the future. This analysis is driven by the growing demand for higher octane gasolines that cars increasingly need to maximize the performance...
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January 15, 2018 By Megan Boutwell Stillwater’s transportation energy policy experts closely follow federal, state, and international policy developments and their impacts on industry and consumers. As 2018 begins, there are a number of policy trends that we will be following and for which we’ll provide expertise to clients. The following are of some of...
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January 10, 2018 By Miriam Stern Last month, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved the final version of California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, a blueprint for reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs), bolstering clean energy, and improving air quality. We previously summarized the proposed Scoping Plan (drafted early last year), and, while the overall...
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January 15, 2018 By Ralph Grimmer of Stillwater Associates, and Adrian Tolson of 20|20 Marine Energy The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is moving forward with a marked reduction from 3.5% to 0.5% in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) on January 1, 2020. In our November 2017 newsletter, Stillwater...
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At a January 9, 2018, public hearing in the Washington State House Committee on Environment, Stillwater president Dave Hackett presented comments on HB 2338, an act relating to reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with transportation fuels by introducing an LCFS program in that state. You can view a PDF of Dave’s presentation here and a video of the panel...
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In the first quarter of 2017, CARB reported the first quarter of net deficits generated in the program. As the carbon intensity standards become more stringent, the demand for LCFS credits will increase significantly in 2018 and continue into 2019 and 2020. The credit bank that has built up will be drawn down, causing the...
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November 16, 2017 by Ralph Grimmer, James Ahrens, and Leigh Noda The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is moving forward with a marked reduction from 3.5% to 0.5% in the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel (bunker fuel oil) on January 1, 2020. In our October newsletter, Stillwater provided Part 2 of our series on this...
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November 15, 2017 By Jessica Loomis In February of 1991, Senior Associate Leigh Noda was working for ARCO as the manager of business and technology in ARCO’s flagship refinery in Carson, California. One afternoon, the refinery’s manager called Leigh into his office with a very special project. Ronald Reagan was turning 80 years old, and...
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November 11, 2017 By David Hackett, President Last year, we at Stillwater offered a review of the state of ethanol-free (or E0) gasoline in the U.S. Since then, we’ve learned a great deal about the market which we will share in this updated article. We start with some background: The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)...
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As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. We will be featuring guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a comprehensive information service...
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October 9, 2017 by Dave Hackett Stillwater has always been interested in technology development in the transportation fuel space. We help clients figure out how their new fuels or fuel-related technologies fit into the supply chain. Our first project, back in the day, was a dot-com. The objective was to help reduce transaction costs in...
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October 11, 2017 By Jessica Loomis In the late 1990s, Stillwater Senior Associate James Ahrens was working in the crude oil supply, trading, and transportation division at Mobil as a supply optimization coordinator for the Beaumont refinery. The fuels crude unit at the refinery typically ran a slate of heavy sour crude oil that left...
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October 12, 2017 by Ralph Grimmer and Michael Myers Stillwater is following the progress and impact of the International Maritime Organization’s Global Maximum Sulfur Content of Marine Fuel Rule, or IMO 2020. Our first article, IMO 2020 Part 1: The evolution of the marine sulfur regulation, appeared on the website in September 2017. The International...
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October 10, 2017 by Kendra Seymour As often happens in the aftermath of natural disasters, there has been increased coverage in the last month debating the merits of a 97-year-old law which affects delivery of goods to U.S. shores. You’ve likely heard talk about the Jones Act, but do you know what it is and...
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October 10, 2017 This month we check back in on our crude oil spot prices in bubble map form – the first time we’ve done so since January. On October 10th spot WTI was quoted at $51 per barrel, with Brent $5 higher. Western Canadian Select was discounted at $13 under WTI. On the Gulf...
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Stillwater Associate Barry Schaps’ presentation at the STI/SPFA conference on September 27, 2017. This presentation explains the transportation fuels supply chain, outlines the impact of the U.S. shale boom on supply and demand, and discusses the changing regulatory landscape. You can download a copy of his presentation here.
As the passage of AB 398 has strengthened and extended California’s Cap and Trade program, we think our readers will benefit from a spotlight on the trends in the carbon credit market. Starting this month, we will be featuring guest articles on California’s Cap and Trade program from our friends at CaliforniaCarbon.info. CaliforniaCarbon.info is a...
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September 12, 2017 By Michael Leister In recent weeks, as I look at pictures and listen to stories about the devastation caused by Harvey and Irma, I can’t help but think back to a similar time when the hurricane names were Katrina and Rita. This is not a story about the heroic efforts or terrible deaths that...
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On August 2, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the first quarter 2017 data from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Reporting Tool (LRT). For the first time, LCFS deficits exceeded credits for a quarter and the total banked credits declined. The chart below shows the decline in the first quarter and the break...
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July 12, 2017 By Jessica Loomis The word “fracking” is as tied to the state of Colorado these days as “skiing”, “mountains” and “snow”. Fracking is the process of drilling vertically or horizontally far below the surface to inject water, sand. and chemicals at a very high pressure into rocks that are believed to have...
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July 12, 2017 By Jessica Loomis In August 2005, Stillwater Associate Barry Schaps was working for Shell Oil Company as the General Manager of Supply Planning and Logistics. At the time, Barry’s son was getting ready to begin his first year at Tulane University in New Orleans, so Barry and his family were in town...
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June 6, 2017 by Kendra Seymour Introduction Last week President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the historic Paris Climate Agreement, signaling a lack of commitment at the federal level to combatting climate change. Many states, municipalities, and companies, however, have voiced continued support for the Paris Agreement and have affirmed their intention to fulfill the...
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April 24, 2017 By Rob Nikolewski, The San Diego Union-Tribune In an indication of just how much California is affected by gasoline prices, at least three different groups on Monday weighed in on the ramifications of Senate Bill 1, the $52.4 billion effort passed by Gov. Jerry Brown and the Legislature earlier this month. One organization...
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February 28, 2017 by Jessica Loomis In recent years, several major integrated oil companies have sold off certain refineries they own because they don’t believe they are positioned to be core to their current business practices. We thought it would be interesting to examine some of these large companies as they continue to turn their...
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February 28, 2017 by Megan Boutwell Not too long ago a friend checked in looking for an LCFS tutorial. Based on that request we decided to put together a handy dandy LCFS guide. We could go on for days about this stuff, but we’ll show a little discipline and just give you the high points....
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November 15, 2016 By David Hackett The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires increasingly high levels of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuel. Ethanol provides the largest share of the renewable fuel pool so that nearly all of the gasoline sold in the U.S. is 10% ethanol. With this volume it would be...
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