{"id":6112,"date":"2022-02-07T16:09:58","date_gmt":"2022-02-08T00:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stillwaterassociates.com\/?p=6112"},"modified":"2022-02-09T16:18:01","modified_gmt":"2022-02-10T00:18:01","slug":"what-does-the-recent-growth-in-the-lcfs-credit-bank-mean-for-credit-prices-in-the-longer-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stillwaterassociates.com\/what-does-the-recent-growth-in-the-lcfs-credit-bank-mean-for-credit-prices-in-the-longer-term\/","title":{"rendered":"What does the recent growth in the LCFS credit bank mean for credit prices in the longer term?"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 1, 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n Volatility in the LCFS credit market and recently released 3Q2021 data showing nearly 433,000 metric tons in net credits for the quarter have left many investors scratching their heads. What does this mean for the trajectory of the program? How should we think about credit prices going forward? Stillwater Associates\u2019 LCFS Team answers these questions and many more in our LCFS Credit Balance and Credit Price Outlook<\/u><\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n Stillwater\u2019s LCFS Outlook includes historical LCFS credit balances and prices as a foundation for understanding forward-looking curves. Our team of experts also present three credit balance and credit price curves through 2031 (ten years from the data currently being released) \u2013 our \u201cmost likely\u201d curves for both credit balances and credit prices in addition to high and low curves which serve to bound the outlook. Our price projections are based on our analysis of the supply of low-CI fuels in California, the demand for fossil gasoline and diesel, our outlook on carbon intensities of each fuel pool, the evolution of the vehicle fleet, and the ongoing development of the LCFS regulation.<\/p>\n Overlaying the numerical analysis is Stillwater\u2019s deep understanding of regulatory actions and the evolution in California, the commercial fuels market, fuels logistics, market structure and players.<\/p>\n Stillwater\u2019s Ten-Year LCFS Credit Balance and Credit Price Outlook includes:<\/strong><\/p>\n This outlook is invaluable for any business impacted by LCFS credit values, such as:<\/strong><\/p>\n Stillwater\u2019s LCFS Outlook is updated on a quarterly basis<\/strong>, following each release of quarterly LCFS data. Our latest\u00a0outlook\u00a0incorporates 2Q2021 LCFS data\u00a0(released\u00a0October 31,\u00a02021)\u00a0and LCFS credit price data through December\u00a031, 2021.\u00a0We are currently in the process of refreshing the outlook to include recently released 3Q2021 LCFS data.The 3Q2021 update will be available March 14th, but you can sign up now to receive the latest report the moment it’s released.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Our team of experts can also run additional scenario investigations utilizing the above-described proprietary model to test client-specific assumptions and produce unique credit balance and price curves based on these assumptions.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"February 1, 2022 Volatility in the LCFS credit market and recently released 3Q2021 data showing nearly 433,000 metric tons in net credits for the quarter have left many investors scratching their heads. What does this mean for the trajectory of the program? How should we think about credit prices going forward? Stillwater Associates\u2019 LCFS Team…Contact us<\/a>\u00a0to learn more about Stillwater\u2019s LCFS Outlook!<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Contact us<\/a>\u00a0to learn more about Stillwater\u2019s LCFS Outlook!<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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