May 2023 In the course of Stillwater’s policy work, we have been retained to look at issues like fuel markets, distribution, and pricing. Stillwater routinely analyzes supply and demand outlooks for a variety of clients in both the private and public sectors. As gasoline pricing has become a topical issue of late, below we bring together and highlight our policy...
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September 29, 2022 Update: On September 30, 2022, at the direction of Gov. Newsom, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) issued a regulatory advisory allowing the sale or supply of gasoline in California that exceeds the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits in CARB’s gasoline regulations, from September 30 through October 2022. When gas prices spike in California, Stillwater’s phones start...
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April 1, 2021 By Steve Holton In the first quarter of 2021, prices at the pump have been rising steadily, leading many people to complain once again about the price of gasoline. Have you ever wondered how the price of gasoline or diesel is derived? A multitude of factors impact the price we pay at the pump including, of course,...
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January 10, 2020 By Kendra Seymour In the course of our work, and due to our own curiosity, Stillwater tracks the California gasoline market. We thought our findings might be interesting to our readers as well! In our latest review of the data, we see that the strength of the retail margin (retail less taxes less climate change costs less...
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October 22, 2019 By Dave Hackett On Monday, October 21, my friends at the California Energy Commission (CEC) released “Additional Analysis on Gasoline Prices in California.” This report is a follow-on to a May 2019 report that had been requested by Governor Gavin Newsom. Both reports examine why California gasoline prices are higher than the rest of the country. These...
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September 20, 2019 by Jeff Kennedy “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” I’m sitting here on a Friday afternoon, contemplating just how true that old adage is. More than 25 years ago, before Stillwater was launched and before the ExxonMobil merger, I was with Mobil West Coast Supply in Long Beach working with many of the...
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June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) colleague, Professor Severin Borenstein, the retail gasoline prices in this state are higher than the U.S. average, even after deducting California’s high taxes and fees....
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May 28, 2019 By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the upside, this issue always gets the attention of consumers and politicians. Our first engagement to look at this subject came from the California Energy...
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April 17, 2019 By Kendra Seymour California’s gasoline prices consistently outpace average pump prices across the U.S., but in the past month, Californians have experienced an average price increase of roughly 60 cents per gallon, spiking the Golden State’s fuel prices even higher than usual, as you can see in the chart from GasBuddy, below. What’s going on here? Why...
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April 16, 2019 By John Faulstich With the recent increase in gasoline prices in California (the retail gas price average just bumped up over $4 per gallon) and renewed interest in this subject, we thought it timely to present an overview of the major components of what goes into the price of gasoline at the pump. The U.S. Energy Information...
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April 8, 2019 By Barry Schaps Whoever heard of a bomb cyclone weather event? In case you haven’t, here’s the rundown: A bomb cyclone is the rapid development of a “cyclonic low-pressure area” which occurs most frequently in marine environments in the winter months but can occur in continental settings and at other times of the year. Residents and farmers...
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October 17, 2018 by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we have predicted a drop in gasoline demand, mostly driven by cars and light-duty trucks getting better gas mileage as the result of the...
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In the first quarter of 2017, CARB reported the first quarter of net deficits generated in the program. As the carbon intensity standards become more stringent, the demand for LCFS credits will increase significantly in 2018 and continue into 2019 and 2020. The credit bank that has built up will be drawn down, causing the price of LCFS credits to...
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September 13, 2017 Our hearts go out to our friends and colleagues in Texas and Florida as they start to rebuild after the destruction from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Stillwater’s Houston-area associates were able to weather Hurricane Harvey in good shape, managing to stay safe and dry while helping their neighbors. According to Barry Schaps, the official rain gauge nearest...
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April 24, 2017 By Rob Nikolewski, The San Diego Union-Tribune In an indication of just how much California is affected by gasoline prices, at least three different groups on Monday weighed in on the ramifications of Senate Bill 1, the $52.4 billion effort passed by Gov. Jerry Brown and the Legislature earlier this month. One organization that concentrates on policy solutions...
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Feb. 3, 2016 Dan McSwain, The San Diego Union-Tribune Although oil markets are bankrupting producers and draining government coffers from Moscow to Riyadh, plummeting costs are filling the pockets of ordinary consumers this year, right? Um, wrong, at least in California, where state government helps the refining industry keep gasoline prices aloft for months at a time. On Monday, at...
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January 17, 2016 by John Faulstich California’s gasoline prices were often in the news in 2015 and the trend will continue in 2016. Dave Hackett of Stillwater is one member of the California Energy Commission Petroleum Market Advisory Committee which continues to look into the gasoline prices in California. A topic of discussion at the last PMAC meeting was the February 2015...
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August 5, 2015 by David Hackett There are three major refining centers on the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the San Francisco Bay (SFB), and Los Angeles (LA). The refineries in the PNW supply Washington, Oregon and California with gasoline. The SFB plants supply Northern California, Northern Nevada and Southern California with gasoline. Excess gasoline from the PNW and...
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May 19, 2015 The May Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing on the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $7 since our last post, at $59 per barrel on May 18th. The WTI/Brent differential remains at $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price also stays steady at $3 over WTI. Bakken continues to stay $12...
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April 7, 2015 by Tiffany Hsu, LA Times An ongoing glut of crude oil will give U.S. drivers this summer the lowest seasonal gasoline prices in six years, the government predicts. Even in California – where prices recently surged a dollar above the national average, sparking accusations of collusion by oil refineries – analysts expect gasoline to be the cheapest...
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February 25, 2015 by David Hackett The press has been buzzing with gasoline price stories since the ExxonMobil Torrance refinery suffered an explosion last week, limiting the amount of gasoline it produces. Indeed retail prices are suddenly 25% higher. Using the EIA’s weekly retail price data, the chart below shows retail gasoline prices in Los Angeles bottomed the beginning of...
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January 19, 2015 by David Hackett Oil industry observers, including the Downstream Wizard, predicted that California retail gasoline prices would go up around New Year’s Day as transportation fuels would come under California’s Cap-and-Trade regulation. At current prices for carbon, Covered Entities like refiners and marketers who pay the tax on fuels, should be passing through about 10 cents per...
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January 11, 2015 by Pete Carey, San Jose Mercury News Bay Area drivers are already celebrating the recent collapse in oil prices, but if it lasts it will have broader economic implications, putting billions of dollars a year directly into the wallets of residents and helping to stimulate the region’s already robust economy. And a lot of that money is...
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December 11, 2014 Filling up the Stillwater Honda Odyssey cost a very jolly $45 this week, the delightful effect of a glut of crude oil supply. The drop in prices at the pump is giving consumers a little unexpected year-end bonus. Crude oil spot prices are the lowest they’ve been since we started this blog. On Monday WTI hit...
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October 15, 2014 by Dan Murtaugh and Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Regular gasoline in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than three-and-a-half years as shale oil production and weak global demand spurred a four-month slump in oil prices. The average retail price fell 0.9 cents a gallon to $3.177, Heathrow Florida-based motoring group AAA said on its website...
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By Gretchen Morenson and Robert Gebeloff, NY Times It was supposed to help clean the air, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster agriculture. But a little known market in ethanol credits has also become a hot new game on Wall Street. The federal government created the market in special credits tied to ethanol eight years ago when it required...
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February 15, 2013 When gasoline prices in California shot up to record levels last fall, the public was reasonably frustrated and the media and policy makers were eager to understand the root causes of the spike. Stillwater monitors crude oil and retail gasoline prices daily and we wrote extensively about this price spike on our blog. Our take on the...
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November 15, 2012 The Bubble Map is back! Since we last checked in crude oil spot prices have fallen. The price of WTI has dropped $10 since the end of August to $85.45 on November 15th. The price differential between WTI and WCS has doubled to $32 under. Limited pipeline capacity is to blame for the slump in the price...
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October 7, 2012 What happened in the spot market? Spot prices started to move up on refinery problems on 9/27. By Monday, October 1, the spot was up 30 cpg On that Monday, Exxon Mobil’s Torrance refinery lost power due to an equipment failure at Southern California Edison. Spot prices rose to 83 cpg to $4.22 by Wednesday. On Thursday...
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By David Hackett An energy analyst friend of mine from the East Coast called and asked me why gasoline prices are so cheap in California. This is a question I have been puzzling over all summer. Of course, most readers are going to say, “What are you talking about? Retail gas prices in LA are around $3.75. That’s not cheap!”...
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September 14, 2013 By Gretchen Morenson and Robert Gebeloff, NY Times It was supposed to help clean the air, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster agriculture. But a little known market in ethanol credits has also become a hot new game on Wall Street. The federal government created the market in special credits tied to ethanol eight years ago...
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