Stillwater Associates 2025: A Year of Growth and Impact 

Phew! What a year. From welcoming new experts to deepening long-term client relationships and expanding our suite of “off-the-shelf” market tools, 2025 was a banner year for Stillwater Associates. Together with our clients, we tackled complex policy questions, navigated fast-moving carbon markets, and brought thoughtful guidance to the energy transition across the transportation fuels value chain.

Expanding our team and our reach

The small-but-mighty Stillwater team continued to grow in 2025. We welcomed four new Senior Associates – John Askounis, Chuck LeTavec, Eric Lingman, and Paul Machiele – whose deep expertise in refining, regulations, and markets is already enhancing the breadth and depth of our client work. 

 We also celebrated the well-deserved retirements of longtime leaders Barry Schaps and Jim Mladenik, whose wisdom and dedication have profoundly shaped Stillwater’s success and culture over many years. Their legacy endures in the way we approach every engagement: with rigor, practicality, and a focus on helping clients make better decisions. 

Our client base grew as well, with new (46%) and returning (54%) clients spanning refiners, renewable fuel producers, airlines, logistics and infrastructure companies, investors, and public agencies. This strong and balanced retention and expansion reflect the trust clients place in Stillwater as their “call-first” trusted advisor when markets, regulations, or assets are in transition.

Spotlight on off-the-shelf intelligence

In 2025, Stillwater’s off-the-shelf products moved from “nice to have” to essential tools for clients navigating low-carbon fuel (LCF) programs and carbon markets. These offerings give organizations rapid access to Stillwater’s analysis without the lead time of a custom project, while still allowing for deeper engagement when needed. 

Key offerings include: 

• LCFS Newsletter – Delivers timely analysis of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP), Washington Clean Fuel Standard (CFS), British Columbia LCFS (BC-LCFS), and Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) credit and deficit trends, regulatory developments, and market signals, helping compliance teams and traders stay ahead of changes in LCF markets. 

• C&T Newsletter – Provides clear, actionable coverage of California’s carbon market, with data-driven insights that support risk management and strategy. 

• Carbon Market Outlooks (CMO) Dashboard – Translates complex carbon market and policy dynamics into actionable, scenario-based forecasts that support investment screening, asset planning, and risk management across evolving low-carbon fuel programs in the U.S. and Canada. Subscribers get program-specific outlooks for key carbon and low-carbon fuel markets, quantitative modeling of credit prices under multiple policy and market scenarios, and direct access to Stillwater experts to discuss assumptions and portfolio implications. In 2025, this subscription continued to serve a diverse set of clients, including private equity and infrastructure investors, utilities, renewable fuel producers, charging-infrastructure providers, project developers, logistics companies, EV manufacturers, refiners, and airlines. 

• U.S. West Coast Supply & Demand Balance Outlooks – Offer a structured view of refined product supply, demand, imports, exports, and infrastructure constraints on the West Coast. Logistics companies and large fuel buyers use these West Coast Balances as a foundation for decisions on infrastructure, sourcing, and risk management, often pairing them with bespoke terminal and port analyses. Contact us to learn more! 

Together, these products form a cost-effective way for clients to plug into Stillwater’s market intelligence engine – then layer on custom analysis, dashboards, or advisory support as their needs evolve.

Client successes across key practice areas

In 2025, Stillwater Associates delivered impactful work across our core practice areas – Policy, Strategy & Economics, Testimony & Litigation Support, and Mergers & Acquisitions – helping clients navigate uncertainty with confidence. 

Policy

Our policy work remained extensive, reflecting the pace of change. Highlights included: 

• LCF program proposals – State-level legislative and program analyses for industry associations and market participants, assessing logistics capabilities, fuel availability, and likely per-gallon consumer cost impacts under proposed LCF programs. These studies help inform policymakers and stakeholders about program design choices and their potential market outcomes. 

• Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposals – In-depth analyses of federal RFS “Set 2” proposals. Stillwater quantified potential impacts – particularly around proposed restrictions on foreign feedstocks and fuels – across regions such as the West Coast, Gulf Coast, and landlocked markets. We also performed RFS analyses tailored to the ethanol market, supporting agricultural stakeholders with insight into how rule changes could affect ethanol demand and corn growers. 

• Ethanol and CO₂ policy – Assessment of potential regulatory changes, including possible CO₂ endangerment finding rescission, and their implications for ethanol markets and associated emissions treatment. 

• New Mexico LCF Policy – Analysis and expert-witness support for proposed Clean Transportation Fuel Program (CTFP), including evaluating new amendments and providing testimony through rigorous hearing processes. 

• Feedstock supply and renewable propane incentives – Facility-specific feedstock supply analyses for refiners responding to RFS proposals, and updates to renewable propane incentive-stack reports detailing how federal and state programs, tax credits, LCFS, and cap-and-trade interact to shape project economics. 

We also provided ongoing on-call consulting to help clients interpret evolving rules and credit structures, reinforcing our role as a long-term partner rather than a one-time project resource. 

Strategy & Economics

Stillwater’s Strategy & Economics practice delivered a wide range of insights – from West Coast balances to decarbonization strategies and investment due diligence. In 2025, our team: 

• Government advisory – Advised state government officials on oil industry practices, policy design, and market dynamics, including long-standing support to energy agencies evaluating supply, reliability, and consumer impacts. 

• Supply and demand outlooks – U.S. West Coast supply and demand balance outlooks provided to logistics companies and other market participants, complemented by custom analyses for retailers and others that included infrastructure condition assessments and port-by-port import capacity mapping. 

• Industry alliance support and data dashboards – Maintained and improved data repositories for industry associations covering renewable fuel supply, feedstock availability, and credit prices, along with monthly analysis of trends and on-call consulting. 

• Pipeline and condensate market analysis – Supported pipeline companies with expert comments on proposed tariff changes and assessments of condensate markets and related toll applications, combining market modeling with on-the-ground operational understanding. 

• Decarbonization strategies – Developed decarbonization roadmaps for hospitality operators in sensitive environments, quantifying potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions from renewable diesel and electric vehicles for fleet operations and public fueling stations. 

• Investment due diligence and logistics advisory – Conducted due diligence for private equity and infrastructure investors considering fuel retail and midstream investments, including analysis of EV adoption, fuel demand trends, and infrastructure resiliency. We also advised on strategic logistics investments on the U.S. West Coast and supported advanced biofuels companies with market reports to back terminal acquisitions and financing. 

Testimony & Litigation Support

Stillwater remained a trusted source for expert testimony and litigation support in 2025. Our team: 

• Provided expert testimony and analysis in a dispute between an engineering/construction firm and a refiner, addressing refinery operations, industry practices, and project impacts. 

• Conducted economic analyses and prepared expert reports in a bankruptcy dispute involving renewable fuel facilities, including detailed assessments of asset value in the context of market and policy conditions. 

• Served as an expert consultant in a fuel-quality dispute and trade-secrets case, bringing regulatory and market expertise to complex technical and commercial questions. 

• Supported a contractual dispute related to corn procurement and ethanol marketing agreements, clarifying how market structures and pricing dynamics affect performance and damages assessments. 

Mergers & Acquisitions

In M&A, Stillwater supported midstream and downstream transactions where logistics, regulatory risk, and future demand trends are central to value. In 2025, this included comprehensive due diligence for a terminal acquisition, focusing on feedstock and product flows, logistical constraints, and regulatory drivers to help investors understand both risks and opportunities before committing capital. 

Looking toward 2026: Continued momentum

2025 has shown that Stillwater’s blend of deep industry experience and rigorous analysis is more valuable than ever. In 2026, we are bringing a stronger, expanded team; new service lines ready to scale; and a content engine that will continue delivering high-quality market intelligence across our publications platform. 

In the year ahead, we look forward to: 

• Continuing to support clients through ongoing regulatory uncertainty, including additional state-level LCF program analyses (i.e., Pennsylvania’s Clean Fuels Standards Act proposal and the implementation of the New Mexico CTFP) 

• Expanding analysis around opportunities for ethanol (e.g., export markets, E15 expansion, and alcohol-to-jet pathways) 

• Further evolving our data dashboards and off-the-shelf products 

The transportation energy industry will continue to evolve quickly, and Stillwater Associates is well-positioned to help clients see what is coming and act decisively. 

Partner with Stillwater Associates

Are you navigating complex energy markets, seeking strategic insights, or requiring expert support for your projects? Stillwater Associates is your trusted advisor. Contact us today to discuss how our consulting services can help you achieve your goals!

To stay ahead of fast-moving markets, consider subscribing to Stillwater Publications’ industry-leading offerings – the LCFS Newsletter, C&T Newsletter, and Carbon Market Outlooks Dashboard – which deliver the timely, actionable insights you need to make confident decisions.