LCFS Credit Price Trends
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): OPIS-reported credit prices declined week-to-week.
Short-term trends: The figure at right displays the weekly credit price trend for the week of June 5-11, and the table below offers a detailed comparison to the prior week and the same week last year.
Longer-term trends: For 2024 year-to-date, LCFS credit prices have averaged $59/MT, reaching an annual high of $68.75/MT on March 12th and a low of $41.50/MT on May 16th. The annual average credit price for 2023 was $73/MT. The maximum allowable credit price for June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025 is $261.52. Credit price trends for the past two years are displayed in the figure below.
Credit Price Trends – Daily vs. Moving Averages
BLUF: Current prices, 30-day, and 180-day moving averages all trend downward.
The figure below shows daily OPIS prices along with 30- and 180-calendar-day moving averages.1 As can be seen, current credit prices continued their downward trend this week, parallel to the 30-day moving average trend. The 180-day moving average is also bending downward but at a more gradual slope.
LCFS Trade Price Trends
BLUF: This week’s volume-weighted average credit price reported by CARB increased while the range in CARB-reported prices expanded.
The figure below shows the minimum, maximum, and volume-weighted average weekly price for the past twelve months. The range of prices illustrates that the transactions for some credits have been contracted in prior periods when credit prices were different, or the credits are discounted for commercial purposes.
LCFS Trading Volume Trends
BLUF: The total number of trades, volume of trades, and average volume per trade all declined this week.
The figure and table below show a history of weekly volumes traded and number of deals for the past twelve months. Last week’s volume and number of trades are the lowest seen in the past year.
* Adjusted from last week’s reported volume of 221,500 MT and 22 trades.
News for the Week of June 5-11
California LCFS News
- On June 7th, CARB posted three Tier 2 RNG pathways from California Bioenergy for public comment.
- On June 10th, CARB posted multiple Tier 2 pathways from AltAir Paramount for public comment.
- On June 11th, the Weekly Credit Transfer Report for June 3-9 was posted on CARB’s website.
Canadian CFR News
- On June 6th, the Low Carbon Fuels Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) ECCC’s posted an Addendum modifying the information outlined in section 9.1 of the Clean Fuel Regulations: Specifications for Fuel LCA Model CI Calculations
- On June 7th, ECCC’s Low Carbon Fuels Division published the following guidance on the Land Use and Biodiversity Criteria under the Clean Fuel Regulations with respect to Used Cooking Oil feedstock (UCO): “For UCO feedstock, the Low-Carbon Intensity (CI) Fuel producer must demonstrate that the UCO feedstock they are sourcing is of Type 2 (i.e., meeting 46(1)(b)(v))) and therefore proving, with reasonable level of assurance, that it is a waste product coming out of an upstream processing operation. The Low-CI Fuel producer must ensure that collection points retain records of contracts, delivery records, invoices, etc. of where the UCO was sourced from. It is not required for the Low-CI producer to determine the specific composition of the originating material that the UCO mix is derived from (e.g., palm, corn, canola, etc.).”
Legislative Updates
- New York: On June 7th, S1292 the draft Clean Fuel Standard of 2024, passed the Senate and was delivered to the Assembly for consideration. Companion bill AB964 saw no action this week. The 2024 regular session has now drawn to a close, and a special session has yet to be announced.
- New Jersey: SB2425 and A3645, companion bills which would establish an LCF program in New Jersey, saw no action this week. The New Jersey legislative session ends December 31st.
- Massachusetts: H4543 and S2286, two bills which would establish an LCF program in Massachusetts, saw no action this week. The 2023-2024 Massachusetts legislative session ends January 2, 2025.
- Minnesota: The Clean Transportation Standard Act (SF2584 and HF2602) saw no action this week.
- Michigan: SB275 saw no action this week. The 2024 Michigan legislative session ends December 31st.
- Vermont: The Vermont Clean Fuel Standard (S.24) saw no action this week.
Situational Awareness
- On June 6th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its 2024 annual World Energy Investment report, finding that global investment in clean energy is on track to reach nearly double the amount going to fossil fuels in 2024.
- On June 7th, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks. The new standards increase at a rate of 2% per year for passenger cars in model years 2027-2031 and light-duty trucks in model years 2029-2031.
- On June 7th, WasteDive reported that “A new regulation in Washington will open the door for dozens of landfills to improve their gas collection operations, potentially boosting the production of renewable natural gas in the state.”
- On June 7th, AgWeb Farm Journal published an article authored by American Soybean Association (ASA) Chief Economist Scott Gerlt examining the 40B and 45Z credits for soy-based biofuels.
- On June 8th, Clean Technica published the results of an in-flight study concerning commercial aircraft powered by 100% sustainable aviation fuel. According to the study, “In-flight measurements from an A350 aircraft using 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) show a significant reduction in soot particle emissions and formation of contrail ice crystals compared to using conventional aviation fuel.” Furthermore, “global model simulations estimate 26% reduction in contrails’ climate impact when using 100% SAF.”
- On June 11th, the Renewable Fuels Association released a study documenting the economic and environmental benefits of the world’s first plug-in electric hybrid flex fuel vehicle (PHEFFV). After rigorous emissions testing, lifecycle greenhouse gas analysis, and nearly 34,000 miles of real-world driving, the study concludes that a PHEFFV offers distinct advantages over fully electric vehicles.
