April 24, 2017 By Rob Nikolewski, The San Diego Union-Tribune In an indication of just how much California is affected by gasoline prices, at least three different groups on Monday weighed in on the ramifications of Senate Bill 1, the $52.4 billion effort passed by Gov. Jerry Brown and the Legislature earlier this month. One organization that concentrates on policy solutions...
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February 28, 2017 by Jessica Loomis In recent years, several major integrated oil companies have sold off certain refineries they own because they don’t believe they are positioned to be core to their current business practices. We thought it would be interesting to examine some of these large companies as they continue to turn their focus to upstream assets, and...
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February 28, 2017 by Megan Boutwell Not too long ago a friend checked in looking for an LCFS tutorial. Based on that request we decided to put together a handy dandy LCFS guide. We could go on for days about this stuff, but we’ll show a little discipline and just give you the high points. The LCFS can seem like...
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January 26, 2017 by David Hackett The recent rise in gasoline prices in Mexico has driven significant unrest early this month. However, north of the border (where gasoline prices are higher than they were last summer), they are still cheap. What’s going on in Mexico? There are several factors contributing to the crisis. The Mexican government still sets the annual...
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January 25, 2017 This month, we decided to take a look back at January 2016 and compare it to our first Bubble Map of 2017. Last year at this time oil prices were in the basement. In our January 15, 2016 blog, WTI was listed at $29 per barrel, with Brent in the same spot. Oil prices are definitely looking...
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January 17, 2017 by EJ Ledet and Mike Leister Effective January 1, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring all U.S. gasoline to meet an annual 10 ppm average sulfur requirement as part of their new Tier 3 vehicle and fuel regulations. The 10 ppm sulfur average applies at the refinery gate, which is the point where finished...
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November 17, 2016 Each quarter, our Stillwater LCFS Quarterly Newsletter takes an in-depth look at one aspect of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and other low carbon standard efforts around the country. In our latest LCFS Quarterly Newsletter, Leigh Noda analyzes the LCFS credit trends. The following is an excerpt from the latest Stillwater Quarterly LCFS Newsletter. The credits and...
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November 16, 2016 The former ExxonMobil refinery in Torrance, CA experienced an upset this week. As news helicopters circled above, the local fire department fought a fire that appeared to be in the alkylation unit. Thankfully, the media were reporting yesterday that there were no serious injuries. Today, OPIS reported that the refinery was back operating at full rates, although...
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November 16, 2016 by Jeff Kennedy No matter what, refiners want to run crude, the more the better. It doesn’t matter what comes out of the crude, and if you can get a refiner to process a secondary unit feedstock, then the stars have aligned, or you’ve died and gone to heaven! The trick is getting everybody on board and...
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November 15, 2016 By David Hackett The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires increasingly high levels of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuel. Ethanol provides the largest share of the renewable fuel pool so that nearly all of the gasoline sold in the U.S. is 10% ethanol. With this volume it would be easy to assume that there...
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November 2, 2016 Alison Sider and Nicole Friedman, The Wall Street Journal More than 60% of U.S. fuel pipelines were built before 1970, according to federal figures. Recent disruptions on Colonial Pipeline Co.’s fuel artery running up the East Coast show why some energy observers worry that this is a problem. The pipeline, which began operating fully in 1964, was...
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October 12, 2016 This month in Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard we thought it might be a good idea to dust off the Bubble Map and take a look at the differentials around the country. Back in January when we declared the Mid Continent crude oil arbitrage closed, WTI was $29 a barrel. While prices have gone up since then,...
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October 10, 2016 Each month, our Stillwater LCFS Monthly Newsletter takes an in-depth look at one aspect of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and other low carbon standard efforts around the country. In our latest LCFS Monthly Newsletter, Jim Mladenik compares the first quarter of Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program with California’s LCFS first quarter. The following is an excerpt from...
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Dave Hackett’s presentation at the American Coalition for Ethanol Annual Conference on August 10, 2016. This presentation explains the refining process, defines octane, and explains the octane market.
August 9, 2016 Back in February, LCFS credit prices were trading for about $130 per metric tonne (MT). Prices were fairly steady through the spring, and then something happened in July to make the price drop. LCFS credits lost more than half of their value from February, hitting the $56/MT mark in the last week of July. Prices have rebounded...
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August 8, 2016 by Michael Leister As the RFS2 mandates for ethanol have risen, the nation has begun to approach the so-called E10 blendwall, that point at which nearly all of the nation’s gasoline has been blended at the 10 percent ethanol level. To get around the E10 blendwall, it is necessary to find pathways to blend more than 10...
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June 7, 2016 As we continue to look at the issues surrounding Mexico’s deregulation of their petroleum markets, we can see how much effort and time it is going to take to transform the government monopoly into a market-based structure. On May 24th, Dave Hackett spoke about the state of the Mexican petroleum products market at the latest OPIS Mexico...
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June 16, 2016 by David Hackett Supply to the East Coast is a complex mixture of local refineries, large pipeline movements from Texas and Louisiana and water shipments both barge and large ships. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) divides the U.S. into five regions or PADDs (Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts) as shown in Figure 1. The East Coast...
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June 6, 2016 by Michael W. Bloch, with contributions from David Bulfin and David Wilshin Stillwater recently worked with several clients and their attorneys to resolve term contract disputes that led to litigation or arbitration. These disputes were grounded in the poor structure and understanding of the terms and conditions of the contracts. Often, the parties to the contract cannot...
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Dave Hackett’s presentation at the OPIS Mexico – U.S. Petroleum Summit on May 24, 2016. This presentation discusses the current petroleum product flows in Mexico and the export flows from the U.S. into Mexico. It also takes a close look at wholesale prices along the border. VIEW PRESENTATION
May 2, 2016 On April 2nd Stillwater held our 6th Annual Meeting in Irvine, CA. The Annual Meeting originated in 2011 with a handful of people sitting around a kitchen table discussing the future of the company. Since then it’s grown to a weekend-long event with 29 attendees, starting with a kick-off party at Stillwater World Headquarters. Associates flew in...
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Is your company impacted by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard? The LCFS is well underway, and it’s important that Covered Entities and the companies that support them have the right information to make smart Credit Market decisions. Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is a powerful tool for Covered Entities to use as they navigate the standard. This unique publication offers the latest...
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March 29, 2016 by Barry Schaps The Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began addressing the issue of excessive speculation and its effects on energy commodities since Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank Act following the financial meltdown of 2008. The legislation, passed in 2010, ordered the CFTC to set limits on the number of futures contracts a trader could hold for...
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March 29, 2016 Stillwater Associate Mike Leister, offered a presentation at the AFPM Annual Meeting entitled How EPA’s Recent RFS Changes for 2014, 2015, and 2016 will Impact Various RFS Program Participants. EPA’s changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are meant to encourage the growth of production and use of biofuels. This is an initial step to drive greater E85 and...
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Michael Leister’s presentation at the 2016 AFPM Annual Meeting on March 15, 2016. This presentation discusses EPA’s changes to the RFS which are meant to encourage the growth of production and use of biofuels and as an initial step to drive greater E85 and perhaps E15 sales. The presentation provides an analysis of the changes to the standards and how they will...
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February 9, 2016 David Hackett About a year ago we wrote in this space that oil prices would continue to go down. We suggested that $35 was possible for a bottom for West Texas Intermediate price, but thought it would hold around $50 or $60 per barrel. (WTI closed on February 9 at $28.39, down 26% since New Year’s Day.)...
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February 12, 2016 Tony Bizjak, The Sacramento Bee Two years ago, it appeared that milelong trains carrying crude oil to refineries would soon be a regular feature on the California landscape – including several a day rumbling through Sacramento. Now, amid safety concerns, the state’s two highest-profile crude-by-rail project proposals, one in the north and one in the south, have...
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Feb. 3, 2016 Dan McSwain, The San Diego Union-Tribune Although oil markets are bankrupting producers and draining government coffers from Moscow to Riyadh, plummeting costs are filling the pockets of ordinary consumers this year, right? Um, wrong, at least in California, where state government helps the refining industry keep gasoline prices aloft for months at a time. On Monday, at...
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January 18, 2016 The first Bubble Map of 2016 shows crude oil prices continuing to fall. Prices on January 15th have WTI dropping from $37 to $29 since our last blog in December. The Brent price has also dropped to $29, driving the Brent differential just cents under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has narrowed slightly to $12 under...
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January 17, 2016 by John Faulstich California’s gasoline prices were often in the news in 2015 and the trend will continue in 2016. Dave Hackett of Stillwater is one member of the California Energy Commission Petroleum Market Advisory Committee which continues to look into the gasoline prices in California. A topic of discussion at the last PMAC meeting was the February 2015...
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December 10, 2015 Major changes in Mexico’s energy markets will start happening next year and it is important to understand what the landscape will look like in order to take advantage of the opportunities. On November 17th, Dave Hackett spoke about the state of the Mexican petroleum products market at the OPIS Mexico – U.S. Petroleum Summit. Dave’s presentation, Product...
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December 10, 2015 The December Bubble Map shows crude oil prices dropping overall while differentials to WTI have remained relatively stable. Prices on December 9th show WTI dropping from $46 to $37 since our last blog in October. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly at $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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December 2, 2015 by Barry Schaps Around this time of year, many newsletters and blogs post screaming headlines about the “hottest” items to watch for next year. This is more of a “keep your eye on this space” notice as Stillwater Associates focuses its attention on the planned transformation of Petroleos de Mexico (Pemex). Make no mistake, the reorganization and...
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Dave Hackett’s presentation at the OPIS Mexico – U.S. Petroleum Summit on November 17, 2015. This presentation discusses the current petroleum product flows in Mexico and the export flows from the U.S. into Mexico. It also takes a look at what the deregulated Mexican market may look like in 2018. VIEW PRESENTATION
October 16, 2015 The October Bubble Map shows WTI holding steady at $46 since our last blog in August. The WTI/Brent differential has narrowed to $2 over WTI. The Bakken discount has also narrowed to $4 under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has widened to $15 under WTI. On the Gulf Coast, crude oil from the shale formations...
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October 5, 2015 On September 30th, EIA released the PADD 5 Transportation Fuels Markets report, the first in a series of studies on U.S. regional fuels markets. Stillwater was privileged to provide our expertise for this study which examines U.S. West Coast petroleum product markets. Our research and analysis for this report covers: Demand, including in-region consumption, transfers of fuels...
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October 1, 2015 by Kristen Hays, Reuters PBF Energy Inc.’s purchase of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s California refinery marks Chairman Tom O’Malley’s biggest bet yet on U.S. refining in the country’s toughest market. The $537.5 million deal to buy Exxon’s 155,000 barrels per day plant in Torrance with dock, storage and pipeline infrastructure will mark PBF’s entrance into the market in...
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August 12, 2015 by Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg The lowest crude prices in six years might not be enough to put the brakes on the U.S. energy renaissance. Some parts of North Dakota’s Bakken shale play are profitable at less than $30 a barrel as companies tap bigger wells and benefit from lower drilling costs, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis....
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August 5, 2015 The August Bubble Map shows crude oil prices trending down since we last checked in at the end of June. WTI is down $7 since our last post at $46 per barrel on August 4th. The WTI/Brent differential has widened slightly to $4 over WTI. The Bakken discount has narrowed to $8 under WTI. The Western...
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August 5, 2015 by David Hackett There are three major refining centers on the West Coast, the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the San Francisco Bay (SFB), and Los Angeles (LA). The refineries in the PNW supply Washington, Oregon and California with gasoline. The SFB plants supply Northern California, Northern Nevada and Southern California with gasoline. Excess gasoline from the PNW and...
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July 28, 2015 by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro, Inc. Refining is the key link in the global supply chain extending from the production of crude oil to end-use consumption of refined products. Crude oil as it exists at the wellhead is essentially worthless; a crude oil’s value is in the value of the products made from it. Petroleum products produced...
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June 27, 2015 The June Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $4 since our last post at $63 per barrel on June 25th. The WTI/Brent differential has tightened to $3 over WTI. The Bakken discount has widened to $14 under WTI. The Western Canadian Select discount has also increased...
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June 27, 2015 by David Hackett Clients frequently ask us to explain the flows of petroleum from one region to another. Our Bubble Map is often used to explain the flows of crude oil, for example. The chart below illustrates the flow of petroleum products in and out of the U.S. by Petroleum for Administration of Defense District (PADD) for...
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May 19, 2015 The May Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing on the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $7 since our last post, at $59 per barrel on May 18th. The WTI/Brent differential remains at $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price also stays steady at $3 over WTI. Bakken continues to stay $12...
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May 7, 2015 by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc. EPA has pledged to issue proposed renewable fuels volume requirements for 2014, 2015, and 2016 by June 1 and final renewable fuels volume requirements for all three years by November 30. These volume requirements set the annual Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) for refiners and other obligated parties with respect to renewable...
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April 28, 2015 by David Hackett One of the exciting parts of my job is talking to reporters about trends in the transportation energy market. Sometimes these interviews even make it to television. For the television interviews, I often spend a couple of hours with reporters and producers laying out how the market works and discussing the finer points of...
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April 15, 2015 The April Bubble Map finds crude oil prices on a slight uptick. WTI broke the $50 threshold and was priced at $52 per barrel on April 13th. The WTI/Brent differential has tightened to $7 over WTI. The Alaska North Slope price has gone up, rising to $3 over WTI. Alaska’s Dalton Highway, the lone road leading...
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April 14, 2015 by David Hackett The AFPM Annual Meeting was back in San Antonio this year. Every year I find this four-day event educational, fun and exhausting. It seems like every day goes from 7 AM to Midnight and is filled with meetings, eating and drinking. The San Antonio hometown oil companies host big parties and there are plenty...
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April 7, 2015 by Tiffany Hsu, LA Times An ongoing glut of crude oil will give U.S. drivers this summer the lowest seasonal gasoline prices in six years, the government predicts. Even in California – where prices recently surged a dollar above the national average, sparking accusations of collusion by oil refineries – analysts expect gasoline to be the cheapest...
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March 3, 2015 by David Hackett Retail gasoline prices in Southern California are going up rapidly. I spoke about the reasons why on Saturday’s NBC Nightly News. Last week we wrote an article that discussed the rapid rise in retail gasoline prices in Southern California. Using EIA’s weekly retail data, we showed that the price of regular gasoline at the...
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February 25, 2015 The February Bubble Map finds crude oil prices creeping back up. While the WTI price remains at $49 per barrel, Brent has risen to $9 over WTI. The spike in the price of Brent can be attributed to concerns over lower supply levels due to the unrest in Libya, which has all but shut down crude...
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February 25, 2015 by David Hackett The press has been buzzing with gasoline price stories since the ExxonMobil Torrance refinery suffered an explosion last week, limiting the amount of gasoline it produces. Indeed retail prices are suddenly 25% higher. Using the EIA’s weekly retail price data, the chart below shows retail gasoline prices in Los Angeles bottomed the beginning of...
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February 23, 2015 by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc. In November 2014, the Presidents of the U.S. and China agreed to new curbs on the two countries’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, stating that: “The U.S. intends to reduce its emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 and to make its best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%.” “China...
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January 20, 2015 2015 kicks off with crude oil prices continuing to fall, having dropped over 50 percent since last June. It’s great news for drivers as retail prices have dropped to a nationwide average of $2.05. And it doesn’t seem like anything can stop this party. Even the dreaded California Cap-and-Trade price hike has yet to materialize. Crude...
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January 19, 2015 by David Hackett Oil industry observers, including the Downstream Wizard, predicted that California retail gasoline prices would go up around New Year’s Day as transportation fuels would come under California’s Cap-and-Trade regulation. At current prices for carbon, Covered Entities like refiners and marketers who pay the tax on fuels, should be passing through about 10 cents per...
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January 15, 2015 by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc. 2014 was a year of intense debate – political, economic, and technical – over repealing or revising the federal law and regulations that essentially ban the export of U.S. crude oil. The issue took an intriguing turn on December 30. While the rest of us were gearing up to celebrate the New...
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January 11, 2015 by Pete Carey, San Jose Mercury News Bay Area drivers are already celebrating the recent collapse in oil prices, but if it lasts it will have broader economic implications, putting billions of dollars a year directly into the wallets of residents and helping to stimulate the region’s already robust economy. And a lot of that money is...
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December 11, 2014 Filling up the Stillwater Honda Odyssey cost a very jolly $45 this week, the delightful effect of a glut of crude oil supply. The drop in prices at the pump is giving consumers a little unexpected year-end bonus. Crude oil spot prices are the lowest they’ve been since we started this blog. On Monday WTI hit...
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The Changing Landscape of Crude Oil Movements to the West Coast. Dave Hackett’s presentation to the Moving Crude Supplies to West Coast End Markets conference on December 3, 2014. With the shale boom, and the surge in crude-by-rail, crude oil movements to the west coast have changed significantly in a short time. This presentation gives an overview of the changes...
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December 5, 2014 by Dave Hirshfeld, MathPro Inc. In June 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published an analysis of the feasibility and economic implications of achieving future annual renewable fuel mandate volumes1 for the federal Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). Here in Regulation City, refining industry advocates praised the CBO analysis; ethanol industry advocates trashed it. Elsewhere, the report...
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November 5, 2014 by Dan Murtaugh, Zain Shauk and Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Things are slowing down at the U.S.’s largest oil-import hub. Just six years after importing more than 1 million barrels a day from countries including Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is receiving just half of that from overseas, highlighting a nationwide trend at...
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October 30, 2014 by David Hackett The presentations at this year’s OPIS National Supply Summit reflected the dynamics of petroleum markets in North America. Much of the conversation was on the impact of continuing growth of crude oil production in the Mid Continent. The topics include crude oil pipeline development, crude-by-rail and plenty of discussion on the crude oil export...
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October 30, 2014 On Monday with WTI priced at $81 per barrel, Eagle Ford and WTI-Midland were listed at parity with WTI. Bakken at Clearbrook came in at $13 under WTI. While the Western Canadian Select differential has narrowed to $7 under WTI. While we’re seeing discounts in the Mid Continent, prices on the coasts continue to drop. Brent...
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October 21, 2014 by Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg Stockpiles of oil from Alaska’s North Slope have surged to a five-year seasonal high as tanker maintenance slows loadings, forcing the grade to trade at a discount to U.S. crude for the first time since 2010. Inventories at the Valdez terminal, the northernmost ice-free port in North America and the...
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Dave Hackett’s presentation at the Annual OPIS Supply Summit on October 27, 2014. This presentation discusses the current California LCFS and Cap & Trade regulations and how they are affecting the transportation fuels industry in the state. It also explores the status of clean fuels and low carbon fuel standards being considered in other states around the country. VIEW PRESENTATION...
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October 17, 2014 by Dan Murtaugh and Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Oil traders might see the 27 percent slide in global prices as a bear market. For U.S. consumers, it’s more like an early holiday gift. The drop in crude has pulled retail gasoline down more than 50 cents a gallon from the year’s high in April. That means annual savings...
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October 15, 2014 by Dan Murtaugh and Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Regular gasoline in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than three-and-a-half years as shale oil production and weak global demand spurred a four-month slump in oil prices. The average retail price fell 0.9 cents a gallon to $3.177, Heathrow Florida-based motoring group AAA said on its website...
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Dave Hackett’s presentation to the Quest Club of Bakersfield on the fundamental problem the energy industry faces in the Mid Continent. The presentation also takes a look at the Pacific Basin and suggests additional solutions. VIEW PRESENTATION
October 3, 2014 by Lynn Doan, Bloomberg One of Russia’s prized oils, facing increased competition in Asia, is traveling to a rather unlikely destination: the U.S. West Coast. As the U.S. threatens President Vladimir Putin with further economic sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, light Sokol oil from Russia’s Far East is showing up in California for the first time...
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September 26, 2014 Crude oil prices in the Texas tight oil producing regions are suffering from the same over-supply problem as the Mid Continent. There’s a lot of crude oil in Texas and prices reflect the oversupply. For that reason, the Bubble has been stretched a bit to include the Lone Star State. Prices for WTI-Midland and Eagle Ford...
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September 8, 2014 by Lynn Doan, Blooomberg California, the nation’s largest gasoline market, has cut its oil-by-rail volumes from Canada by 86 percent this year while buying more crude made in America. The most populous U.S. state received 3,142 barrels a day by rail from Canada in July, down from 6,669 in June and a peak of 22,871 in December,...
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Advances in drilling have brought about an energy boom in the U.S. This boom has led to a dramatic shift in crude oil logistics. To make up for the lack of pipeline capacity, producers have turned to moving crude-by-rail (CBR). In this complimentary webinar, we will discuss the rapid growth of CBR from production in the Mid Continent to refineries...
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August 24, 2014 by Tony Bizjak and Curtis Tate, The Sacramento Bee KERN COUNTY – In Sacramento and the Bay Area, recent plans to run trains laden with crude oil through downtowns to coastal refineries have prompted fears and protests this summer. But, here in the southern San Joaquin Valley, where oil has served as economic lifeblood for more than...
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August 23, 2014 Angel Gonzalez, The Seattle Times In Seattle, America’s energy boom can be seen but not felt. At least not at the gas pump. Trains bearing crude oil cross the city’s busy core every day, connecting North Dakota’s prolific oil fields to refineries on the coast. Yet gasoline prices here have remained stubbornly high, even as an abundance...
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August 20, 2014 by Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Just as Global Partners LP (GLP) gained approval to unload more oil from rail cars at a marine terminal in Oregon, Tesoro Corp. (TSO) learned its plans for a similar project in neighboring Washington will have to wait. The projects are among several oil-by-rail proposals facing rising opposition after a series of derailments...
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August 19, 2014 by David Hackett Market participants are starting to speculate about the next phase of Cap & Trade under California’s AB32 the Global Warming Solutions Act. That phase, Fuels Under the Cap, is designed to control Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from transportation fuel, including gasoline, diesel, propane and natural gas. The first phase of Cap & Trade includes...
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August 19, 2014 by Barry Schaps Recently, veterans in the oil industry have been questioning their long held assumptions about what really constitutes crude oil produced at the wellhead. One may ask, with everything else going on in the world, “Why is this important?” The short and simple answer is that “traditional crude oil” (loosely defined as liquid hydrocarbons from...
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August 18, 2014 by Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Spot gasoline in San Francisco at the highest premium to Los Angeles in two weeks has opened an arbitrage for fuel to flow north. Spot California-blend gasoline in the San Francisco Bay area gained 1 cent a gallon versus the same fuel in Los Angeles to a premium of 8 cents, its highest...
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August 15, 2014 By Kristen Hays, Reuters The first new crude-by-rail project at a California refinery is likely to win approval next month after more than a year of scrutiny, the head of the Kern County planning division told Reuters, and it could help reopen the shuttered plant. The facility at independent refiner Alon USA Energy Inc.’s Bakersfield plant would...
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August 6, 2014 by Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg The gusher of crude from the Permian Basin has spurred new investments from refinery and pipeline companies trying to take advantage of low prices caused by rising supplies. Delek US Holdings Inc. (DK) expects to expand its refinery in Tyler, Texas, by 25 percent in early 2015, and Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (SXL)...
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