News

U.S. West Gasoline Output Surges to Record on Blending, Exports

April 11, 2014

April 9, 2014 by Lynn Doan, Bloomberg Gasoline output in the western U.S. jumped to a record as refiners and blenders boosted production to meet stricter environmental regulations and tankers were seen exporting fuel from the region. Finished gasoline on the U.S. West Coast, known as the PADD 5 region rose 6.7 percent to 1.7 million barrels a day in...
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The Fuel Supply Chain & RINs

April 10, 2014

RINs prices have gone way up since the beginning of the year. This presentation offers a little explanation of how RINs flow through the fuel supply chain and why the cost of RINs have gone up recently. VIEW PRESENTATION

The Effect of Crude-by-Rail on Refining and Logistics

April 4, 2014

On April 25th, Dave Hackett delivered a presentation at the 2014 AFPM Annual Meeting entitled The Effect of Crude-by-Rail on Refining and Logistics. Everyone in the crude oil supply chain is interested in crude-by-rail (CBR), but there are problems that have to be solved.  Crude oil production in the Mid Continent has run way ahead of infrastructure. CBR is helping...
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Upstream Commercial Support: A Simple Example for Design of Export Facilities

March 24, 2014

March 24, 2014 by Michael W. Bloch Often when Upstream projects are under development, it maybe difficult for design engineers to see beyond a specific set of capital investment goals. It is important that new Upstream projects be reviewed with a Downstream perspective in advance of making decisions, reviewing draft development plans and commercial agreements, or agreeing to preliminary or...
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Dave Hackett Speaks to KGET about Crude by Rail

March 24, 2014

February 12, 2014 Dave Hackett spoke with KGET News Channel 17 about crude by rail projects in Bakersfield, CA. The two part series, entitled Tracking in Oil, investigates proposed crude by rail projects and discusses the benefits and challenges crude by rail projects bring to Bakersfield. Watch Part 1 and Part 2 of this informative series.

What is LNG?

March 23, 2014

March 23, 2014 by Mark Pilcher LNG has been in the news a lot lately.  Political opponents have been waging a propaganda war over the economic benefits and the environmental impact of LNG exports from the U.S.  LNG has been described as a clean transportation fuel alternative to diesel, and as an environmental Trojan Horse.  More recently, LNG has been...
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Stillwater Authors Paper on Petroleum and Renewable Fuels Supply Chain for BPC

February 28, 2014

February 4, 2014 As part of an effort to foster constructive dialogue and action on reforming the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) Energy Project has released three of five commissioned background papers on the RFS. Stillwater Associates is proud to be part of this conversation by providing a white paper entitled Petroleum and Renewable Fuels Supply...
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An Industrial Policy Success Story

February 28, 2014 ,

December 12, 2013 by David Hackett For a long time I’ve been concerned about the barriers that have been created to stifle industrial development in the United States. Here in California it is virtually impossible to create new industrial facilities. For example, we have a client who has been working for years to develop a new crude-by-rail unloading facility in...
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California Getting Record Volume of Canadian Oil by Rail

February 28, 2014

January 31, 2014 By Lynn Doan and Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg.com California, the third-largest oil-refining state in the U.S., is bringing in a record volume of oil from Canada by rail as it faces shrinking supplies from Alaska and within the state. The most populous U.S. state received 709,014 barrels of crude from Canada by rail in December, a 4.9 percent...
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Wall St. Exploits Ethanol Credits, and Prices Spike

February 28, 2014

By Gretchen Morenson and Robert Gebeloff, NY Times It was supposed to help clean the air, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster agriculture. But a little known market in ethanol credits has also become a hot new game on Wall Street. The federal government created the market in special credits tied to ethanol eight years ago when it required...
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The Last Bubble Map of 2013 – ANS Skyrockets

January 24, 2014

December 12, 2013 The last Bubble Map of the year shows the Bakken discount has narrowed since we last checked in. On December 9th, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $10 under WTI. But the WCS discount has widened to $26. Maya remains at $9 under WTI. The Brent, Louisiana Light Sweet and Alaska North Slope differentials have all...
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A Veerry Scaarrry October Bubble Map

January 24, 2014

October 18, 2013   Well…not really. But the Bakken discount has widened since we last checked in. On October 16, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $12 under WTI. LLS was priced $1 over WTI and Brent was $9 over. San Joaquin Valley Heavy has dropped to $5 under WTI. Alaska North Slope was $2 over WTI on October...
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What We Did On Our Summer Vacation

January 24, 2014

September 9, 2013 Well, the kids are back at school and we’re all back working away. The kids will be asked, “What did you do this summer?” Our kids will be writing about Disneyland, stand-up paddle boarding (coming nose to whiskers with sea lions), and surfing in Southern California. We had a very full summer schedule at Stillwater and everyone...
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Bubble Map Update for July

January 24, 2014

July 25, 2013   Mexican Maya differential returns to the latest edition of the Bubble Map! The last time Maya appeared on the Bubble Map, way back in April, it was $7 over. We found a new price-reporting source for Maya that show it $5 under WTI on July 24th. Yesterday, Bakken at the wellhead was discounted by $22, but...
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June Bubble Map: Rail is the Big Winner

January 24, 2014

June 5, 2013   In the June Bubble Map we see some interesting differentials west of the Bubble. The WTI-San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential is the tightest we’ve seen…ever. SJVH is just a $2 premium over WTI, down from $6 in our last post. The WTI-ANS differential has also tightened to $7 over, down from $10 last month. It looks...
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Crude Oil Over Supply in the Mid Continent

January 24, 2014

January 8, 2013 We’re back in the New Year with an updated Bubble Map. Crude oil prices have gone up across the board since our last blog post on November 27. Differentials between WTI and most marker crudes have tightened, except for WCS. The WCS discount has deepened since before the holidays to $36 under WTI. Oversupply in the Mid...
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The Southern California Gas Price Spike

January 24, 2014

October 7, 2012 What happened in the spot market? Spot prices started to move up on refinery problems on 9/27. By Monday, October 1, the spot was up 30 cpg On that Monday, Exxon Mobil’s Torrance refinery lost power due to an equipment failure at Southern California Edison. Spot prices rose to 83 cpg to $4.22 by Wednesday. On Thursday...
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Price Differentials Inside the Bubble Improve

January 24, 2014

August 8, 2012 Crude oil prices are up considerably since our last blog post. WTI closed at $94 on August 7th, up $6. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. However, the San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential has shrunk to $5 over WTI, down from $9 last week. Discounts in the Mid Continent have tightened. Bakken’s...
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June Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

June 20, 2012 Crude oil spot prices have remained in about the same place since the last blog post, except for Western Canadian Select and Bakken.  WCS has dropped another $2 from June 1, to $22 under WTI.  The Canadian Pacific Railway strike, that ended last Friday, may have played a small part in the bottleneck.  Although CP does not...
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Update on the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

May 17, 2012 We continue to keep a close eye on the crude oil supply situation in the mid continent. Since the last blog post, the price differentials of marker crudes have shrunk. As you can see from the map, on May 16, WTI was selling at $99 a barrel, down from $103 a barrel this time last month. Brent...
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Breaking Out of the Mid Continent Bubble

January 24, 2014

April 7, 2012   Oil market observers know that there is a disconnect between the prices of the two benchmark light sweet crude oils, West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent. In the past, these oils traded for about the same price. The difference, or spread, between WTI and Brent opened up when more and more crude oil began to...
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State of Canadian Crude Oil Supply in the U.S.

January 24, 2014

January 11, 2012 By David Hackett   The School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary published “Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada” on December 15, 2011. The paper “…examines the nature and structure of the Canadian oil export market in the context of world prices for heavy crude oil and the potential price differential...
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What is the latest on California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard?

January 24, 2014

January 3, 2011 By David Hackett Stillwater has been following the LCFS issues from the start and we have concerns about the feasibility of the biofuels program to meet the carbon intensity goals at an affordable price. Our calculations indicate that the regulation will increase motorists’ costs by billions of dollars per year as the transportation fuel industry is forced...
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Why is Gasoline in California so Cheap?

January 24, 2014

By David Hackett An energy analyst friend of mine from the East Coast called and asked me why gasoline prices are so cheap in California. This is a question I have been puzzling over all summer. Of course, most readers are going to say, “What are you talking about? Retail gas prices in LA are around $3.75. That’s not cheap!”...
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High Crude Oil Prices Prompt SPR Murmurs

January 24, 2014

August 22, 2012 Crude oil prices are up this week with WTI closing at $97 on August 22nd. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes remain relatively unchanged. The price of Bakken remains relatively in line with WTI at $1 under. The WCS discount continues to tighten to $11 under from $14 on August 14th. With global crude oil...
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BP’s Carson Refinery Sale will Shake Up the West Coast Market

November 15, 2013 ,

Update April 23, 2012: BP has continued to be tight-lipped about the Carson Refinery Sale.  Keep checking in with Stillwater to stay up-to-date on the latest refinery sale news.  Refer to our April Newsletter to find out about East Coast refinery sales.  Be sure to sign up for our email newsletter to get in-depth downstream transportation energy news and analysis....
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What Causes Rack Loading Disruptions?

November 15, 2013

By Dennis Gannaway The distribution of gasoline and diesel from refineries and import points to sales terminal loading racks is a complex activity. Supply programs are often buffeted by shifting economics and a variety of intrusive factors. Most product supply groups have developed operating practices that prevent supply chain problems from affecting tankwagon customers, but past analysis has indicated room...
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Stillwater’s Problem Solving Process

November 15, 2013

Because we want to make a new client’s experience as efficient and productive as possible, we thought it would be helpful to explain the problem solving process Stillwater uses when we first meet a client. Clients come to Stillwater for two main purposes: Companies see opportunities they want to explore and evaluate. Stillwater has long and broad experience in transportation...
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The Impact of Shale Drilling on World Energy Markets

November 15, 2013

June 5, 2013 by David Hackett Who would have thought three or four years ago that natural gas and crude oil production in the U.S. would grow to the point of tipping the energy supply balance around the globe? According to the Wall Street Journal, cheap natural gas in the U.S. has resulted in lower energy prices in Bulgaria. As...
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Stillwater Co-Authors Study on New and Existing Refining Markets for Canadian Crude

November 15, 2013

On December 15th the University of Calgary School of Public Policy released a comprehensive analysis of the effects of new pipeline capacity from Canada into the U.S. entitled “Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada”Catching the Brass Ring: Oil Market Diversification Potential for Canada”. Stillwater Associates’ contribution to the paper included information on global supply and demand,...
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The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Innovation Gap

November 15, 2013

August 1, 2012 by Megan Boutwell California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard remains controversial. Obligated parties to California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard continue to study the regulation and wonder if it is even feasible. A study commissioned by Western States Petroleum Association and authored by the Boston Consulting Group is the latest to make headlines by predicting the severe negative impacts...
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The Emperor’s Reach into Canada (and Will He Pull Anything Back?)

November 15, 2013

August 1, 2012 By Leigh Noda Stillwater Associates has been closely following the Mid Continent Crude Oil Bubble which is being fed by the growing volumes of Bakken and Canadian crudes. Although almost all of the exported crude from Western Canada is destined for the United States, if either or both of the proposed pipelines get built to the West,...
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State Energy Assurance Plans: Is Your State Ready?

November 15, 2013

September 18, 2012 By Megan Boutwell When Buckeye Partners’ West Shore Pipeline had to be shut down this summer due to a leak, threatening gasoline shortages, Michigan’s governor Rick Snyder triggered provisions in the state’s energy assurance plan by declaring and energy emergency. This emergency declaration allowed drivers of gasoline trucks to be exempted from federal and Michigan weekly hours...
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Effects of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Sales

November 15, 2013

September 18, 2012 By Megan Boutwell As we mentioned in our August 23rd blog, last month the Obama Administration stated that they were considering a sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the event of a crude oil price spike or supply interruption. Currently the SPR contains 694.9 million barrels of crude oil, twice the amount of commercial crude...
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An Update on California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard

November 15, 2013

October 24, 2012 by Leigh Noda On October 16th, oral arguments were heard before three justices of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on the California Air Resources (CARB) appeal. The District Court for the Eastern District of California in December found that California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) violated the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution that limits states...
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Wall St. Exploits Ethanol Credits, and Prices Spike

November 15, 2013

September 14, 2013 By Gretchen Morenson and Robert Gebeloff, NY Times It was supposed to help clean the air, reduce dependence on foreign oil and bolster agriculture. But a little known market in ethanol credits has also become a hot new game on Wall Street. The federal government created the market in special credits tied to ethanol eight years ago...
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What Does California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Mean for You?

March 14, 2013

Dave Hackett’s presentation at the 2013 AFPM Annual Meeting on the effects of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The presentation explores these questions: Will the regulation be adjusted to reflect market conditions? How hard do regulators push for new technology development? How do we know this innovation is occurring fast enough to meet the schedule set forth by the regulation?...
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Big Week in West Coast Refinery News

August 15, 2012

August 15, 2012 The price of Bakken is nearly in line with WTI this week, to just $0.50 under. The price of WTI remained about the same, closing at $93 on August 14th. The spread between WTI and WCS has tightened to $14 under, from $16 under WTI on August 7th. The spreads between WTI and most coastal crudes are...
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