FEATURED ARTICLES
Policy
The Highest RFS Volume Requirements in Program History. Can the Market Keep Up?
March 31, 2026
On March 27, 2026, EPA finalized the highest Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volume requirements in the program’s 20-year history. (Need an RFS refresher? Read our RFS 101 to catch up quick.) The Set 2 Final Rule sets the bar at 25.82 billion RINs for 2026 and 25.98 billion for 2027 (increases of more than 15% from the 2023-2025 levels) with biomass-based diesel (BBD)...
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Economics
SAF Accounting, SAF Registries, and the “Truth” of the Market
April 2, 2026
A fragmented registry landscape, unresolved ESG reporting questions, and a persistent gap between intent and integrity – can the voluntary SAF market build the trust it needs to scale? This is the second article in a three-part series. You can view the first article here: Beyond regulation: navigating the global voluntary market for SAF The...
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Policy
Stranded: West Coast Fuel Supply & Strategic Vulnerability
February 12, 2026
West Coast fuel supply is becoming more fragile just as Indo-Pacific geopolitical risks are rising, turning what might look like a regional market issue into a strategic vulnerability for commercial, governmental, and military fuel users alike. Stillwater Associates was recently asked to brief the Navy’s Energy Forum about this structural fragility and why sophisticated planning...
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ADDITIONAL INSIGHT
Policy
California’s ZEV Stall: Sales Peak, Federal Credit Expires, and State Scoping Plan Slips Out of Reach
May 12, 2026
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining California’s transportation fuels progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the 2022 Scoping Plan. The first article – Mind the Gap: Transportation Emissions vs. California’s 2022 Scoping Plan Pathway – provided background and an overview of how the transportation sector has performed...
Policy
A Puzzle in the 4Q2025 LCFS Data: Tightening Market, Soft Prices
May 11, 2026
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) released fourth-quarter 2025 data for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) on April 30, 2026. The data show the program’s recent stringency increase doing what it was designed to do: shrinking the credit bank. Yet LCFS credit prices, which would typically respond to a tightening market, have stayed soft....
Presentations
Pulling in Opposite Directions: Federal Policy, State Programs & the Impact on Transportation Fuel Markets
May 11, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Stillwater’s President, Megan Boutwell, presented “Pulling in Opposite Directions: Federal Policy, State Programs, & the Impact on Transportation Fuel Markets” at the Transportation Energy Institute 2026 Annual Conference in Fort Worth, Texas. The presentation examined the growing divide between accelerating state-level carbon reduction programs and shifting federal policy priorities, and how...
Policy
The four archetypes of low carbon fuel credit markets
May 5, 2026
Credit generators operating under British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC-LCFS) or Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) often use the California LCFS (CA-LCFS) as a benchmark. The three programs create credit markets that differ significantly in liquidity, price transparency, and participant depth due to the structural features of each regime including scale, regulatory design, participant...
Policy
Making Sense of PEV Gasoline Reductions: A 2026 Perspective
April 28, 2026
Bottom Line Up Front: Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs),[1] while a meaningful contributor to California gasoline demand reduction, are not the primary driver of that decline. Across all three scenarios modeled, PEVs account for less than two percentage points of a projected 7.3% total decline in California gasoline sales by 2033; fuel economy improvements, shifting travel...
Economics
Diesel’s GHG Reduction Success Story: How California’s Second-Biggest Transportation Fuel Emissions Source Is Ahead of Schedule
April 7, 2026
This is the third in a series of articles examining California’s transportation fuels progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the 2022 Scoping Plan. The first article – Mind the Gap: Transportation Emissions vs. California’s 2022 Scoping Plan Pathway – provided background and an overview of how the transportation sector has performed...
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