FEATURED ARTICLES
News
Stop Waiting for Normal: Fuel Market Decisions in the New Equilibrium
May 26, 2026
When clients ask us about the Iran war, the question that comes up most often is some version of when, and how, things get back to normal. Our view today is that a return to pre-war conditions is not the right framing for what comes next. The crude market will normalize faster than products, the...
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Policy
Stranded: West Coast Fuel Supply & Strategic Vulnerability
February 12, 2026
West Coast fuel supply is becoming more fragile just as Indo-Pacific geopolitical risks are rising, turning what might look like a regional market issue into a strategic vulnerability for commercial, governmental, and military fuel users alike. Stillwater Associates was recently asked to brief the Navy’s Energy Forum about this structural fragility and why sophisticated planning...
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Policy
California’s ZEV Stall: Sales Peak, Federal Credit Expires, and State Scoping Plan Slips Out of Reach
May 12, 2026
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining California’s transportation fuels progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the 2022 Scoping Plan. The first article – Mind the Gap: Transportation Emissions vs. California’s 2022 Scoping Plan Pathway – provided background and an overview of how the transportation sector has performed...
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ADDITIONAL INSIGHT
Economics
What do shifting product balances on the West Coast mean for future fuel prices and refining margins?
September 4, 2026
Bottom Line Up Front: West Coast refinery closures, climate regulations, and proposed new pipeline capacity are tightening fuel supply and changing the cost to bring fuels to market. Stillwater’s Supply & Demand Outlook answers how much product the region will have. Our new Price & Margin Outlook answers the next question: At what price, and at what refining margin? Together, under the West Coast Fuels Outlooks banner, they give fuel...
Policy
Pancakes, Politics, and Pipelines: The Political Winds Supporting the Development of Canadian Crude Oil Pipelines
August 25, 2026
The Calgary Stampede is an opportunity for folks to let their hair down and become a cowboy or cowgirl for ten days every July. Billed as “The Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth,” the Stampede attracts tourists from around the world and politicians from around Canada. Local and visiting politicians take in the fun that is...
Economics
U.S. West Coast HEFA Margins – The FOG clears
August 6, 2026
The rapid expansion of renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in North America has transformed the economics of biofuels, with California becoming the single largest RD market globally in a short period of time. Looking at the market from the perspective of pricing and value stacks, biofuel margins provide visibility into the...
Policy
Portland’s 20% Storage Drawdown: A Question of Demand and Flexibility
July 14, 2026
As Oregon’s carbon-reduction goals for the transport sector become more stringent, reliable storage and delivery of low-carbon fuels is essential to achieving the State’s ambitions. Oregon’s Clean Fuel Program (CFP), Climate Protection Program (CPP), and Portland’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are driving volumes of low-carbon liquid fuels which can be used in the current fleet...
Economics
RINsanity Returns!
July 13, 2026
The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) created four nested categories renewable fuel demand, each with its own D-Code – D6 for total renewable fuels, D5 for advanced biofuels, D4 for biomass-based diesel (BBD), and D3/D7 for cellulosic biofuels. Each of these categories has a greenhouse gas threshold (see more at our RFS 101 primer). The D4...
Economics
The BC credit value stack: how CFR price discovery is reshaping BC-LCFS credit prices
July 10, 2026
This article concludes a three-part series. The first article introduced the four archetypes of market participants found in every low-carbon fuel credit market; the second explained why the British Columbia (BC) and Canadian credit markets behave differently from California’s. In this article we ask a question those differences make pressing: with Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations...
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