FEATURED ARTICLES
News
Stop Waiting for Normal: Fuel Market Decisions in the New Equilibrium
May 26, 2026
When clients ask us about the Iran war, the question that comes up most often is some version of when, and how, things get back to normal. Our view today is that a return to pre-war conditions is not the right framing for what comes next. The crude market will normalize faster than products, the...
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Policy
Stranded: West Coast Fuel Supply & Strategic Vulnerability
February 12, 2026
West Coast fuel supply is becoming more fragile just as Indo-Pacific geopolitical risks are rising, turning what might look like a regional market issue into a strategic vulnerability for commercial, governmental, and military fuel users alike. Stillwater Associates was recently asked to brief the Navy’s Energy Forum about this structural fragility and why sophisticated planning...
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Policy
California’s ZEV Stall: Sales Peak, Federal Credit Expires, and State Scoping Plan Slips Out of Reach
May 12, 2026
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining California’s transportation fuels progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the 2022 Scoping Plan. The first article – Mind the Gap: Transportation Emissions vs. California’s 2022 Scoping Plan Pathway – provided background and an overview of how the transportation sector has performed...
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ADDITIONAL INSIGHT
Policy
Why BC and Canadian credit markets behave differently from California
June 4, 2026
The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (CA-LCFS) is the most liquid and transparent low-carbon fuel (LCF) credit market in North America, and it is the natural reference point for generators operating under the British Columbia LCFS (BC-LCFS) or the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR). The BC and Canadian markets share the same underlying program logic...
Policy
Alberta’s Referendum on a Referendum and What It Means (or Doesn’t) for Fuel Markets
June 2, 2026
If you are watching the headlines about Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum from outside Canada, the question on your mind is probably narrower than the political coverage suggests: does this change anything about the Canadian fuel markets you sell into, buy from, or build investment cases around? That is the question I put to a...
Policy
HDRD: A Made-in-Canada Name for a Global Fuel
May 28, 2026
If you work in renewable fuels, you know the product. You may even work with it every day. But if someone asks you where the term “hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel” (HDRD) actually came from, there’s a reasonable chance you’d shrug and say it was always just… there. It wasn’t. HDRD has a specific origin, and it...
News
Stop Waiting for Normal: Fuel Market Decisions in the New Equilibrium
May 26, 2026
When clients ask us about the Iran war, the question that comes up most often is some version of when, and how, things get back to normal. Our view today is that a return to pre-war conditions is not the right framing for what comes next. The crude market will normalize faster than products, the...
Policy
California’s ZEV Stall: Sales Peak, Federal Credit Expires, and State Scoping Plan Slips Out of Reach
May 12, 2026
This is the fourth in a series of articles examining California’s transportation fuels progress toward the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the 2022 Scoping Plan. The first article – Mind the Gap: Transportation Emissions vs. California’s 2022 Scoping Plan Pathway – provided background and an overview of how the transportation sector has performed...
Policy
A Puzzle in the 4Q2025 LCFS Data: Tightening Market, Soft Prices
May 11, 2026
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) released fourth-quarter 2025 data for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) on April 30, 2026. The data show the program’s recent stringency increase doing what it was designed to do: shrinking the credit bank. Yet LCFS credit prices, which would typically respond to a tightening market, have stayed soft....
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