Flash Report: 4Q2022 LCFS Data Show more than 1,653,000 MT Net Credit

On Friday, April 28, 2023 CARB posted the fourth quarter 2022 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the fourth quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Tuesday, May 9^th.

The fourth quarter data show a net credit of 1,653,123 metric tons (MT), slightly lower than the third quarter net credit of 1,762,631. With the 4Q2022 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record 15.1 million MT.

The table below summarizes the fourth quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (3Q2022) and to the same quarter last year (4Q2021).

A quick look at this data shows a few trends of interest. The major factors contributing to the slight decrease in net credit in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter were: decreases in net credits for ethanol, biodiesel, and alternative jet fuel. RNG and on-road electricity net credits continue to increase from 3Q2022 to 4Q2022. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, 4Q2022 showed a 1.3% increase in RNG credits on a 3.6% volume decrease, and a 2.7% increase in on-road electricity credits on a 14.1% volume increase. Net credits for ethanol decreased by 6.8% on a 7.3% volume decrease. BD showed a slight increase in average CI, and a volume decrease of 2% compared to 3Q2022. Net credits for alternative jet fuel decreased 60.6% on an equivalent volume decrease. Net credits for RD increased by 5.5% on slightly higher volume but a 0.09 gCO₂e/MJ increase in average RD carbon intensity.

Together, RNG and on-road electricity played the biggest role in the 0.74 million credit increase compared to a year earlier (4Q2021).

We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on May 9, 2023. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe!