On October 31, CARB posted the second quarter 2024 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this second quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, November 7th.
The second quarter data show a net credit of 3,118,072 metric tons (MT), an increase of 660,259 MT from the first quarter net credit of 2,457,813 MT. With the 2Q2024 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record 29.19 million MT.
The table below summarizes the second quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (1Q2024) and to the same quarter last year (2Q2023).
A quick look at these data reveals a few trends of interest. The major factors contributing to the increase in net credits in the second quarter compared to the first quarter were increases in both volume and net credits for on-road electricity, renewable natural gas (RNG), and renewable diesel (RD). These increases totaled 878,698 MT. SAF showed a remarkable 105.8% increase in net credits on a 120.1% increase in volume quarter-to-quarter; given the small volumes in play, however, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Ethanol also showed a slight increase in net credits while biodiesel (BD) showed a decrease from the previous quarter.
On the deficit side, CARBOB volume and deficits grew by 7%. For the diesel pool, ULSD deficits and volumes fell 1.1%. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) rose 9% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD rose from 73% to 75%.
Compared to the second quarter of 2023, 2Q2024 data showed a 37.3% increase in RNG net credits on a 6.6% increase in volume, a 23.2% increase in RD credits on a 25.3% increase in volume, and a 38.6% increase in on-road electricity credits on a 35.2% volume increase. SAF showed a remarkable 227.7% increase in net credits on a 241.6% increase in volume year-to-year; as mentioned previously, given the small volumes in play, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Although the second quarter of 2024 saw a 9% increase in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (1Q2024), the second quarter total was down by 1.1% from volumes seen in the second quarter of 2023.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on November 7, 2024. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe!
What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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