Policy
A Puzzle in the 4Q2025 LCFS Data: Tightening Market, Soft Prices
May 11, 2026
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) released fourth-quarter 2025 data for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) on April 30, 2026. The data show the program’s recent stringency increase doing what it was designed to do: shrinking the credit bank. Yet LCFS credit prices, which would typically respond to a tightening market, have stayed soft....