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Stop Waiting for Normal: Fuel Market Decisions in the New Equilibrium 

May 26, 2026

When clients ask us about the Iran war, the question that comes up most often is some version of when, and how, things get back to normal. Our view today is that a return to pre-war conditions is not the right framing for what comes next. The crude market will normalize faster than products, the...
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Policy

A Puzzle in the 4Q2025 LCFS Data: Tightening Market, Soft Prices

May 11, 2026

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) released fourth-quarter 2025 data for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) on April 30, 2026. The data show the program’s recent stringency increase doing what it was designed to do: shrinking the credit bank. Yet LCFS credit prices, which would typically respond to a tightening market, have stayed soft....
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